Who's Hall Headed?

Baseball's Winter Meetings always begin with the announcement of the results of the Era Committee's Hall of Fame vote.  With no sure-fire first-ballot candidates on the BBWAA ballot, there's a chance, albeit slim, that they won't elect anyone.  Which means the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee could provide us with the only new Hall of Famers in the Class of 2026.  Unless they also pitch a shutout, which is unlikely but certainly possible.

This ballot, frankly, is fascinating.  Because when Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens exhausted their eligibility on the BBWAA ballot, it shifted the issue of their Hall of Fame candidacy over to the Era Committee.  They're both on the ballot, and they brought the controversy surrounding their candidacy with them.  The writers fell into two camps: The Pro Bonds & Clemens Camp and the No Bonds & Clemens Camp.  Very few changed their minds about either.  They either voted for them every time or didn't vote for them every time.

How will the Era Committee view them?  It's a much smaller sample size, and it consists of eight Hall of Famers, some of whom were their contemporaries, as well as eight executives and media members.  You'd have to think that even with the smaller sample size, the opinion on Bonds and Clemens will still be split.  And, because of that, they almost certainly won't get the 12 votes required for induction.

Here's where things get tricky, though.  How many votes will Bonds and Clemens get?  Because each voter only gets four.  So, however many they get obviously won't go to somebody else.  And will that be enough to keep any of the other candidates out?  Their presence on this ballot will end up causing the same headaches their presence on the writers' ballot did for 10 years.

They also changed the rules this year and made it so that any player who doesn't receive at least five votes is ineligible for the ballot the next time their era comes up (in this case, for the 2029 induction class).  If they don't receive five or more votes twice, they're ineligible for future ballots.  This is both good and bad.  It weans out those who clearly have no chance of getting in.  But the whole point of Eras Committees is to give these players a second look, and voting patterns change, as do the way players' careers are viewed.

So, operating off the assumption that Bonds and Clemens won't have enough support, who, if anyone, has the best chance of getting in?  It might be two long overlooked stars from the 1980s.  Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly are exactly the type of player that Eras Committees are designed to give a chance at the Hall of Fame.  And this could very well be their year.  Or at least one of them.

Let's start with Dale Murphy.  He played 15 years for the Braves during an era when they were pretty bad (his last year in Atlanta was 1990...the year before their dominant run began).  But that doesn't change the fact he was one of the best players in the National League in the 1980s.  Murphy won back-to-back MVPs in 1982-83 and five straight Gold Gloves in center field.  He was also a four-time Silver Slugger.

Mattingly was one of the best players in the AL during that same time frame.  He spent his entire career with the Yankees, but didn't play in the postseason until his last year.  (Although, it should be noted, the Yankees weren't exactly bad during that era.  They had the best record in the American League for the 80s.  They just didn't finish in first and it was before the wild card.)  Anyway, Mattingly won nine Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers and an MVP.  Not to mention how highly regarded he was throughout baseball as more than just a player.  And the committee knows first-hand that his career was cut short due to injuries.

Harold Baines was controversially elected to the Hall of Fame in 2019.  Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly were both better than Harold Baines.  So, if that's the benchmark we're using, they both belong in the Hall of Fame, as well.  I don't think even the Baines supporters would dispute that.

Two other "newcomers" transitioning over from the BBWAA ballot for the first time are Gary Sheffield and Jeff Kent.  I had them both among my 10 throughout their decade on the main ballot.  Kent was one of the elite second basemen in the game during his prime and hit the most home runs ever by anyone at the position (351).  Sheffield, meanwhile, hit 500 home runs, a statistical threshold that used to mean almost guaranteed induction.

The last two players on the ballot are Carlos Delgado and Fernando Valenzuela.  Delgado, to me, is very similar to Fred McGriff, another first baseman who got his long-overdue election a few years ago.  He's also similar to Jose Ramirez in that he was consistently good for a remarkably long amount of time.  Delgado holds so many Blue Jays franchise records and hit more home runs, 473, than any other Puerto Rican-born player.

Fernando Valenzuela took the Majors by storm in 1981, when he was both the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young winner for the Dodgers' World Series championship team.  He passed away just before the 2024 World Series, and the Dodgers have won both World Series since then.  Fernandomania will always be a great, fun chapter in baseball history.  It doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, though.  Especially not in an elite group like this.

Of the eight players on the ballot, there are six I would say I'd want to vote for.  And my "no" on Delgado definitely isn't firm.  I'm just not as solid a "yes" on him as I am for Bonds, Clemens, Mattingly, Murphy, Kent and Sheffield.  But, since the voters are limited to four votes apiece, I've got to drop two.  Those two are Jeff Kent and Gary Sheffield.  Leaving me with a final ballot of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.

As I mentioned at the top, I highly doubt either Bonds or Clemens gets in.  Which leaves Mattingly and Murphy.  And I've really got a feeling that Dale Murphy will be elected.  If he does, just imagine how nuts it'll be if Andruw Jones gets in, too.  That would be a lot of Braves Gold Glove centerfield defense making its way to Cooperstown in July!