NFL Picks, Week 13

I give the NFL credit for their Thanksgiving/Black Friday slate this year.  Sure, Lions-Packers is a fairly common and pretty safe matchup, and they knew that the Cowboys game would probably be the most-watched game of the season, so putting the Chiefs, another popular TV draw, opposite them pretty much guaranteed that.  Ravens-Bengals was a bit of a miss, but that looked like a good one on paper before the season, so I get why they picked it.

It's with Bears-Eagles where they really got lucky, though.  Because Chicago's actually good this season, the Black Friday game has some pretty serious playoff implications.  As do all three on Thanksgiving.  I can't remember the last time that was the case with all of the standalone games on Thanksgiving Weekend.  It certainly hasn't happened in the three years since the Black Friday game was added.

Packers (7-3-1) at Lions (7-4): Detroit-This is a HUGE game for Detroit, even moreso than for Green Bay.  That's because the Packers won the first meeting back in Week 1 and already has a half-game lead over the Lions.  So, a Green Bay victory would make it a game-and-a-half with a season sweep (which would be pretty irrelevant anyway because of the Packers' tie).  Anyway, a loss really puts the Lions' playoff chances in danger.  Instead, they jump back ahead of Green Bay in the standings.

Chiefs (6-5) at Cowboys (5-5-1): Kansas City-Had the Chiefs not pulled off that comeback against the Colts, they'd be under .500 and looking at missing the playoffs entirely.  They're still on the outside looking in, but it's suddenly much more realistic that they'll make a run and get in.  Same thing with Dallas after scoring 24 unanswered points to beat Philadelphia.  The NFC East is even still in play for the Cowboys.  So, just like the early game, this one will seriously impact the playoff race.

Bengals (3-8) at Ravens (6-5): Baltimore-Thanks to their own five-game winning streak and the Steelers pissing away a two-and-a-half-game lead, the Ravens have battled all the way back and are now tied for first place...with both games against Pittsburgh still on the schedule!  A full-strength Bengals team could present a challenge for them.  But this isn't a full-strength Bengals team.  Baltimore should keep rolling heading into that matchup with the Steelers next week.

Bears (8-3) at Eagles (8-3): Philadelphia-Even though their lead in the NFC East is still somewhat comfortable despite the loss to Dallas, the Eagles saw their seeding impacted big time.  Another loss on Black Friday would drop them back another spot, behind the North-leading Bears, and give Chicago the tiebreaker.  Of course, the Bears will also have the benefit of knowing the Packers-Lions result, and they have to win themselves to maintain their division lead.  So, like I said, the Black Friday game ended up being a real treat.

49ers (8-4) at Browns (3-8): San Francisco-Cleveland is sticking with Shadeur Sanders at quarterback after getting that win over the Raiders.  Now he'll start at home for the first time against a team that's much better than Las Vegas--the 49ers.  San Francisco earned a pretty dominant win of its own on Monday night against Carolina and finally gets its bye next week (fun fact: the last four teams to have their bye--the Panthers, 49ers, Giants and Patriots, played each other in the Monday night games last week and this week).  They can't get caught in a trap like the Packers did when they visited Cleveland earlier this season, though.

Jaguars (7-4) at Titans (1-10): Jacksonville-Losing last week in Arizona could've been disastrous for Jacksonville.  Instead, the Jaguars found a way to pull it out in overtime to stay in the top AFC wild card spot.  With so many good wins already under their belts, they get an easy one this week with the Titans.  They can't get caught looking ahead to the Colts next week, though.  There's definite potential of this being a trap game.

Texans (6-5) at Colts (8-3): Indianapolis-Don't look now, but here come the Texans.  I'm not saying Houston will definitely leapfrog the Colts and Jaguars and defend as AFC South champions.  It sure looks like a much more realistic possibility now, though.  Especially if they win this one and get within a game.  The Colts sure showed us a lot last week, however.  Yes, they lost in Kansas City.  But the Colts showed that they're for real.  They're the team to beat in that division.

Saints (2-9) at Dolphins (4-7): New Orleans-There isn't really any logical reason why I'm picking the Saints here.  I just think this is one of those rare opportunities New Orleans has to actually win a game.  Which really says more about Miami than New Orleans.  Coming off a bye, against a two-win team at home, and I'm still not picking the Dolphins (who've actually won two straight).

Falcons (4-7) at Jets (2-9): Jets-Ditto about the two-win Jets.  Atlanta at home is one of the few chances left where the Jets could pull it out.  Especially with how confusing and frustratingly inconsistent the Falcons have been this season.  It really depends on which Atlanta team shows up.  If it's the good Falcons, the Jets will suffer the same fate as the Bills.  If it's the bad Falcons, we could see the third Jets win of the season.

Cardinals (3-8) at Buccaneers (6-5): Tampa Bay-Suddenly, Tampa Bay's got company atop the NFC South.  The Bucs still have a half-game lead, but that's only because Carolina hasn't had its bye yet.  This is the start of a three-game homestand that's paramount for a Tampa team that's lost three in a row.  All three should be wins, which will keep them in the driver's seat.  If not, things will really get interesting in the division they've owned for the past several years.

Rams (9-2) at Panthers (6-6): Rams-For the past few weeks, I've been thinking the Rams are the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.  They did nothing to disprove that opinion on Sunday night.  Now they go to Carolina to face a pesky Panthers team that plays very well at home.  They won't make it easy.  In fact, I expect this to be a fight.  In the end, though, the Rams are the more talented team and will find a way to pull it out.

Vikings (4-7) at Seahawks (8-3): Seattle-Last year, Sam Darnold played for Minnesota and the Vikings went 14-3.  This year, the Vikings are 4-7 and sitting in last place.  Darnold's in Seattle and has the Seahawks staring down a playoff berth.  I'm not saying he's the entire reason both teams' fortunes have flipped.  Of course he isn't.  But is he a factor?  Absolutely.  And Darnold's current team should beat his former team to keep pace with the Rams.

Bills (7-4) at Steelers (6-5): Pittsburgh-Very few people, if any, thought this matchup would end up becoming a must-win for both teams.  Yet, that's what it feels like.  The Steelers have been in freefall, completely giving away their AFC North lead.  The Bills, meanwhile, are in danger of watching the Patriots (who never seem to lose anymore) run away with the AFC East.  Buffalo has struggled on the road, especially.  Which is why I'm going with the Steelers here.

Raiders (2-9) at Chargers (7-4): Chargers-Everyone seems to forget this because it's been so long since they've played a division game, but when the Chargers got out to that 3-0 start, all three wins were against AFC West opponents.  That's a huge thing to keep in mind with three of their last six as the division rematches.  They enter this one two games behind the Broncos, which can easily be made up.  Especially against the Raiders, who are so anemic on offense they just fired their offensive coordinator.

Broncos (9-2) at Commanders (3-8): Denver-Speaking of the Broncos, coming off their bye, they visit the Nation's Capital on Sunday night.  Everything I said earlier about Minnesota also applies to Washington.  This certainly isn't how the Commanders expected to follow up their run to the NFC Championship Game last season.  As for Denver, they know as long as they keep winning, it doesn't matter what the Chargers and Chiefs do.  The Broncos maintain their two-game division lead.

Giants (2-10) at Patriots (10-2): New England-We wrap up Week 13 with the Giants visiting the Patriots on Monday night.  They played two outstanding Super Bowls against each other back in the day, but they're going in opposite directions this season.  Mike Vrabel has the Patriots cruising towards the playoffs.  The Giants (and their fans) know there's only five more games before they can be put out of their misery.  New England becomes the first team in the NFL to get to 11 wins, then finally gets a week off (which, honestly, might kill their momentum).

Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 115-62-1