Relegation With Russia's Hockey Return

As usual, the IIHF based the groups for next year's World Championships on the most recent world rankings, which were updated after the United States won its first World Championship in 92 years.  On the strength of that gold medal, the U.S. rose to No. 2 in the world, its highest ranking ever.  That also means the United States will be the highest-ranked team at both the 2026 Olympics and World Championship.  Because the only team above them is currently suspended Russia.

Russia, of course, has been suspended by the IIHF since 2022 because of the country's invasion of Ukraine.  For some reason, though, the IIHF has continued to award Russia points as if it participated in the World Championships.  Since Russia was ranked third at the time, they've received the same number of points as the bronze medalist at the last four World Championships despite not participating in any of them. 

The IIHF does this instead of simply freezing Russia's points until the suspension is over, which would've been easier and made a whole lot more sense.  It really wouldn't have been that hard, either.  In tennis, they used protected rankings all the time if players are coming back from injury or maternity.  The protected ranking is only used for entry into tournaments and only for a limited time.  It's not the same thing here, of course, but it's a close enough comparison.

Anyway, as a result of the IIHF's nonsensical decision to act like Russia wins the bronze medal at every tournament, they've actually moved to No. 1 in the world rankings.  Granted it's only a five-point difference between Russia and the U.S. and only 15 between Russia and No. 3 Switzerland, but that's not the point.  The point is they somehow rose to No. 1 in the world despite the fact that they haven't been allowed to play in an IIHF tournament since the 2022 Olympics.  (Meanwhile, the IIHF announced at the same time that they won't be allowed to play in Milan and will be replaced by France.)

Eventually, Russia's suspension will end and they'll resume participating in the World Championships.  I think that's probably the point of continuing to give them rankings points (but, again, they could've just frozen Russia's points and it would've accomplished the same thing).  And, when Russia is reinstated, they'll go right back to the top level of the World Championships.  This won't be like track & field.

In track & field, where's Russia's suspension (which was first because of doping violations) is going on a decade, they're making them work their way back up from the bottom.  They have promotion and relegation at the biennial European Team Championships.  Russia has been relegated at each edition it's missed due to the suspension.  So, they'll have to earn promotion at each successive level before the finally return to the top level (the earliest ballpark for that is sometime in the 2030s).

That obviously won't happen in hockey.  The IIHF is not European Athletics.  They won't make Russia work their way back up.  That would just be rubbing salt in the wound.  The suspension is bad enough.  And I'm sure there would be some sort of litigation if Russia wasn't immediately placed right back where it was before the suspension (and presumably still would be without it).  Which is a valid point.  So, why even create that mess when it can easily be avoided?

However, Russia's eventual return to the World Championships won't come without complications.  Particularly involving promotion and relegation.  There are 16 teams at the top level of the World Championships.  Russia would be taking somebody's spot.  So, how do you fairly work Russia back in?  And what about the timing?  The World Championships are in May.  If they're reinstated in December, do they replace somebody at the upcoming Worlds?  Or do you make them wait until the next edition (which they obviously won't like)?

One decision could impact the other, especially when it comes to relegation.  It would almost be easier to have Russia reinstated in like February or March, when it's too late for them to play in that year's Worlds, but also early enough to decided how they're coming back and adjust qualification for the next edition accordingly.  And there are several different ways to work Russia back in, so they'd obviously have to choose one.

There are two possible solutions that make sense.  Two teams are promoted from Division I to the top division and two are relegated from the top division to Division I each year.  They could have it where two teams are still relegated, but only one is promoted and Russia takes that other spot.  This would probably be the easiest, most straightforward way to go.  Obviously the second-place team in Division I wouldn't be happy, but if everyone goes into that tournament knowing only one spot in the top level is available instead of two, nobody's really getting screwed.

With the other option, somebody would be getting screwed.  As it is now, the two relegated countries are the last-place teams in each of the eight-team groups.  In this second scenario, two teams are still promoted from Division I, but three teams are relegated.  The eighth-place teams are automatically relegated, while the two seventh-place teams play each other to stay in the top level.  The winner stays, the loser goes to Division I and is replaced by Russia.  Not ideal to say the least.

Keep in mind, Belarus is in the same boat as Russia.  They've also been suspended since 2022 because of their support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  And, like Russia, Belarus was expelled from the top division at the 2022 World Championships as a result.  So, an argument could be made that they both should return to the top level and both seventh-place teams should be relegated.  Belarus (which also still receives ranking points) is also currently No. 16 in the world, so their ranking would support doing that.  Should the IIHF put them both back in the top division, that would make Option B the way to go.

Either way, whatever they decide impacts the lower divisions.  While the top level of the World Championships is 16 countries, each of the lower divisions play a six-team tournament with first place promoted and last place relegated (except for Division I, where the top two are promoted).  They could easily make a one-year exception to have two seven-team tournaments, but at which levels?  And how will promotion/relegation work?  It's not as simple as just plugging Russia (and Belarus) into the top level and going from there.

This is a problem unique to hockey.  Once Russia and Belarus are back in the world's good graces, they can simply be put back in European qualifying in most other sports.  So, it's on the IIHF to figure this out.  And I'm sure they will.  Because Russia has one of the top five hockey teams in the world.  They belong in the top division.  You won't find anyone who disputes that point.  Which is why, whatever they have to do, the IIHF will make sure Russia is back at the top level as soon as it's reinstated.