Baseball 2025 (NL Central)

Even though they're in last place right now, the Chicago Cubs are probably the best team in the NL Central.  It's not a very high bar to clear.  The NL Central is possibly the weakest division in Baseball, and will almost certainly get only one playoff team.  And that division winner might only need 87-88 wins.  But, the Cubs aren't so far ahead of the pack that it won't be a close division race.  In fact, I think this could be one of the more competitive divisions all season.

Milwaukee somehow always manages to either make the playoffs or get close.  Regardless of who's on the roster or managing the team.  And Cincinnati managed to coax Terry Francona out of retirement.  Don't be surprised if having a future Hall of Famer in the dugout was all the Reds needed to become a contender.  Especially in this division.

The Pirates have Paul Skenes.  He's not enough to make them a playoff team, but he is enough to make them watchable every fifth day.  And, I can't believe I'm about to type this next sentence, but the Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase.  It's crazy to think about St. Louis not even trying to be competitive, yet that's the situation entering the season.  Which probably means they'll win 90 games and Oliver Marmol will be the NL Manager of the Year.

So, while it's harder to say how it'll all shake out in this division than any other, there is one thing we can expect to see in the NL Central this season.  A competitive race that goes down to the wire between potentially three teams.  And they'll likely only be going for one available spot.  Because an NL Central team getting a wild card seems like a stretch.

1. Chicago Cubs: Trading for Kyle Tucker was an all-in move.  Of course, they traded for Kyle Tucker right after they traded away Cody Bellinger, but the point remains.  The Cubs wanted everyone to know that they're serious about winning in 2025.  Talent-wise, they've got the roster to do it, too.  On paper, they're the best team in the NL Central.  And they've got a great manager in Craig Counsell.  Although, with Tucker a free agent after this season and no guarantee he'll re-sign, that all-in could lead to a mid-July selloff if things go sideways.

Tucker isn't the only former Astro the Cubs added.  They also brought in Ryan Pressly as their new closer.  And Ryan Brasier from the Dodgers as a setup guy.  Do they have flaws?  Absolutely!  Do they still need some pieces?  Definitely!  They could sure use another starting pitcher, for one.  But, top to bottom, the Cubs have the deepest roster and greatest margin for error in the division.  That's why I think they're the team to beat in the NL Central.  Especially if they stay healthy and make some in-season additions.  They aren't anywhere near as good as the Dodgers or the three NL East teams.  But, the good thing is, they don't need to be.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Kyle Tucker-RF, Michael Busch-1B, Seiya Suzuki-DH, Pete Crow-Armstrong-CF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Matt Shaw-3B, Miguel Amaya-C
Projected Rotation: Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Milwaukee Brewers: I'm picking the Cubs to win the division, but would it surprise anyone if the Brewers did?  In fact, I'll probably go back at the end of the season and be like "you're an idiot" for not picking Milwaukee when they run away with the division title.  Because, no matter what, they always end up right there at the end.  And they do it with an ever-changing cast of characters.  So, no, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Brewers win the division again.

Christian Yelich didn't even play in the second half of last season and they clearly didn't miss him.  Just imagine how dynamic their lineup will be if they get a full season of both Yelich and Jackson Chourio!  I'm curious to see how the Devin Williams trade impacts their bullpen, though.  They had one of the best closers in the game and now they no longer do.  They flipped him for Nestor Cortes, though, which makes their rotation that much longer.  Starting pitching is the biggest asset the Brewers possess.  If they're going to defend their division title, their pitching staff will be a big reason why.
Projected Lineup: Brice Turang-2B, Jackson Chourio-RF, Christian Yelich-LF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, William Contreras-C, Mark Canha-DH, Oliver Dunn-3B, Sal Frelick-CF, Joey Ortiz-SS
Projected Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana, Brandon Woodruff
Closer: Trevor Megill
Projected Record: 86-76

3. Cincinnati Reds: Elly de la Cruz is on his way to becoming a superstar.  And this season could very well be his breakthrough.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Gavin Lux has a big year now that he'll get the chance to get some regular at-bats.  Same thing with Austin Hays, who was an All*Star in Baltimore before his playing time completely disappeared.  The Reds have always been able to hit.  That's never been a problem and won't be again this season.  They need to pitch, though.

Hunter Greene turned into a legitimate ace last season, and Cincinnati will rely on him to anchor the rotation again.  Brady Singer came over from Kansas City in the Jonathan India trade to give them a quality No. 2 behind Greene.  Then they've got veterans Wade Miley and Nick Martinez at the back end of the rotation.  And they've got a lights-out closer in Alexis Diaz.  If they get enough from their pitching staff, it's not crazy to think the Reds could challenge the Cubs and Brewers.  Because the talent disparity really isn't that much.
Projected Lineup: Elly de la Cruz-SS, Gavin Lux-2B, Spencer Steer-3B, Jemier Candelario-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Jake Fraley-RF, Christian Encarnacion-Strand-DH, Tyler Stephenson-C, TJ Friedl-CF
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Wade Miley, Nick Martinez
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pittsburgh is that team that can be both really fun and really frustrating to watch.  The Pirates have a bunch of really good core players that other teams try to get at the Trade Deadline, but they always hold on to.  Guys like Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller and David Bednar.  Yet, even with that talented core, they're always out of it by mid-June.  And now they've got Paul Skenes, who took the National League by storm as a rookie last season.  Which only adds to the expectations in Pittsburgh.

Don't be surprised if they want to build around Skenes for a few years the same way they built their playoff teams around Gerrit Cole a decade ago.  And they really aren't that far away.  Because they've got that core group I mentioned, and they augmented with veterans Tommy Pham and Isiah Kiner-Falefa.  The IKF signing resulted in Oneil Cruz being moved to center field, with Reynolds shifting to right.  I'm curious to see how well Cruz, a career infielder, handles playing center.
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-RF, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Tommy Pham-LF, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Oneil Cruz-CF, Spencer Horwitz-1B, Nick Gonzalez-2B, Isiah Kiner-Falefa-SS, Joey Bart-C
Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 76-86

5. St. Louis Cardinals: They've made it pretty clear that they don't want Nolan Arenado anymore.  So, of course, they head into the season with Arenado still on the roster.  Which isn't to say he still won't be traded at some point.  Frankly, it'd be shocking if he isn't.  Although, everyone expected him to be traded by now and he hasn't been, so maybe not.  Either way, whether they keep Arenado all season or not, it won't make much of a difference.  For the first time in a long time, the Cardinals aren't expected to or planning on being good.

If you take Arenado out of the equation, Sonny Gray is the biggest name on the roster, and he'll once again anchor the starting rotation.  They boast an excellent closer in Ryan Helsley, who I can see contenders wanting at the Trade Deadline.  After his first two seasons in St. Louis were a disaster, Willson Contreras has moved to first base and is loving his new position.  Other than Arenado and Contreras, it's a bunch of young guys in the lineup.  Which means the Cardinals will probably be really good in 2027-28 when that young core has 2-3 years of experience under their belts.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-LF, Masyn Winn-SS, Nolan Arenado-3B, Willson Contreras-1B, Jordan Walker-RF, Alec Burleson-DH, Michael Siani-CF, Nolan Gorman-2B, Pedro Pages-C
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz
Closer: Ryan Helsley
Projected Record: 73-89