NFL 2024-25 (Divisional Playoffs)

Before, during, an even after Wild Card Weekend, there was a lot of talk about whether the NFL should change the playoff format.  It was the usual complaint about how it was "unfair" that the Vikings, Commanders and Chargers had to go on the road despite having a better record than their opponent.  Never mind the fact that two of the three not only lost, but got completely outplayed!  Or the fact that Minnesota was the first 14-win wild card team IN HISTORY, so it's not like that's happening every year!

Long story short, people can whine about it all they want.  Nothing's changing.  There isn't enough appetite for it.  Nor should there be.  If you win your division, you get rewarded with a home playoff game.  Otherwise, what's the point of even having divisions?  Yes, some divisions are stronger than others and there will be times when a 9-8 or 10-7 division champion ends up hosting a 12-5 wild card team.  That's what happens sometimes.  It doesn't mean the system's broken.  Quite the opposite, actually.  It means the system works properly.

Every year, there's at least one weak division and at least one very good division.  This year, both the NFC North and AFC West had three playoff teams.  But, you know what?  It's all cyclical.  It's quite possible, if not likely, that it'll flip within a few years, and those teams that "got screwed" by having to go on the road as a wild card will be the ones who benefit from getting a home game as the 4-seed out of a weak division.  You can't have it both ways!  If you want to host a playoff game, win your division!  It's that simple.

And, let's be honest here.  The Vikings and Chargers got their butts kicked!  In fact, five of the six wild card games weren't close.  (Which brings me to the College Football Playoff and how ridiculous all the complaining about the noncompetitive first-round games was!)  Washington-Tampa Bay was the only non-blowout.  The Commanders didn't have an issue with going on the road.  They sucked it up, got the job done, and earned a trip to Detroit. 

Which sets the stage for the best weekend in football.  The eight best teams, each two wins away from the Super Bowl.  And, of the eight, I'd say five still have very realistic aspirations of lifting the Lombardi Trophy.  The Texans, Commanders and Rams are that bottom three, although I wouldn't entirely count out the Rams.  Especially after what they did against the Vikings on a neutral field.

I'm also kind of rooting for a Detroit-Houston Super Bowl.  The Lions and Texans are two of the four teams that have never been there, and that's one of only three possible matchups between first-timers.  We haven't had a Super Bowl debutant since the Saints 15 years ago, so it would be great to see at least one of them make it.  Although, we all know which of the two is in a better position to do that.

Texans (11-7) at Chiefs (15-2): Kansas City-The Texans just can't escape those Saturday at 4:30 kickoffs, can they?!  And here's the other thing about being that lowest-seeded division champion those critics always seem to forget...if they win, they have to go on the road against a very good team in the Divisional Playoffs.  Which isn't really much of a reward.  Especially when the prize is a trip to Kansas City, where the Chiefs went undefeated this season, against a team that's had effectively two weeks off and is looking to make its sixth straight AFC Championship Game appearance. 

Houston, of course, is the only team in the NFL yet to reach a conference championship game.  And the Texans' chances of getting there for the first time aren't great.  We got a preview of this matchup on the Saturday of that little Christmas round robin, and it was actually the most competitive of the four (including both Saturday and the Christmas games).  There's absolutely no reason to read anything into the Chiefs' Week 18 loss in Denver.  They didn't care about that game at all.  They were getting ready for this one and their quest of a historic three-peat.

Commanders (13-5) at Lions (15-2): Detroit-Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn are building something special in Washington.  They went into Tampa last week and won a playoff game for the first time in 20 years!  It wasn't some fluke, either.  The Commanders have been winning close games like that all season.  And they certainly won't be a pushover for the Lions, even though they know winning will be a tough task.

Detroit is the No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history, and the Lions know that all they have to do is win two home games to make their first-ever Super Bowl.  They're not getting too far ahead of themselves, though.  They know they need to focus on Washington.  I think we'll see a very similar effort to what we saw against the Vikings in Game 272, though.  In that game, Detroit looked every bit like the best team in the NFL.  And the Lions are now finally rested, which was the big reason why they wanted the bye.  They needed it after theirs was in Week 5.  More importantly, it gave them a chance to get reinforcements.  David Montgomery's return makes their offense that much more dangerous.

Rams (11-7) at Eagles (15-3): Rams-Philadelphia may be the only team in the NFC that can challenge Detroit.  But can the Eagles take care of the Rams?  That's the pressing question heading into this Divisional Playoff.  Because, make no mistake, the LA Rams are a very dangerous opponent.  This is a team that started the season 1-4, mind you.  They've been rolling ever since, and they've only been getting better.  We saw it last week when they completely dominated Minnesota in every facet of the game.  (Also, how about the Vikings' luck, losing to only two teams all season and not even getting past the Wild Card game?)

So, I don't see this being a cakewalk for Philadelphia.  The Eagles are the favorites, and understandably so.  I'm just super impressed by the Rams, though.  They sent a message with their win over Minnesota.  The Eagles know they're in for a challenge.  Last week, despite everything they had to deal with back home and having the game moved to Arizona, the Rams showed up and showed out.  This one will be very different than their Week 12 meeting at SoFi Stadium.  Philadelphia won that one, 37-20.  This time, I see the Rams going into Lincoln Financial Field and pulling off the upset.

Ravens (13-5) at Bills (14-4): Buffalo-They saved the best game of the weekend for last!  And, frankly, it's the hardest one to handicap.  The Ravens are the Bills' toughest matchup, and they won the regular season meeting pretty convincingly (35-10).  But, that one was in Baltimore in September.  A Sunday night in Buffalo in January is a completely different animal.  Although, it's not like the Ravens haven't played in the cold before, so how much of an advantage is that really?

We've also got the two main contenders for MVP in this one.  I know the vote is based strictly on the regular season, but this is when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will get to make their final statements.  Because it seems likely that the quarterbacks will decide this game.  The Ravens' offense is clicking.  They scored "only" 28 points last week, snapping a four-game streak where they scored at least 30.  The Bills, meanwhile, shut the Broncos out after an opening drive TD.  This has all the makings of a classic.  Whoever has the ball last will win.  Baltimore may be favored, but I just have a feeling we'll get that Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Game so many people want.

Last Week: 5-1
Regular Season: 177-95
Overall: 182-96