Maybe More Conference Roulette

The Pac-12 is in a precarious position.  The conference is still reeling from UCLA and USC's decision to join the Big Ten and has been looking at expansion candidates to replace them (San Diego State is a virtual lock, which everyone knew the second UCLA and USC left, while SMU is the clubhouse leader to be the other new member).  All of this is happening while they're negotiating their new media rights deal, which, needless to say, isn't as lucrative as the conference hoped.  Nor is it anywhere near what the other conferences are getting from the networks.

It's not really a good sign for the Pac-12 that there's already speculation about which Pac-12 schools could be on the move next.  Both the Big Ten and Big 12 are reportedly interested in poaching the remaining Pac-12 teams, so the conference's long-term viability is still very much in doubt.  Which is really just a sad thing on so many levels.

To be honest, the rumors of the Big Ten snatching more Pac-12 teams never really stopped.  Almost as soon as they snagged the L.A. market with the additions of UCLA and USC, it was rumored that the Big Ten was looking at Washington and Oregon, too, which would give them Seattle and Portland.  However, the Washington and Oregon state governments stepped in and said that the two state universities in each state (Washington/Washington State and Oregon/Oregon State) can't be separated.  (Since they're public institutions, the state governments were well within their rights to do that, BTW.)  So, the Big Ten would either have to take all four schools or none of them.

As a result, the Big Ten has pivoted.  Now the rumored potential West Coast additions are Cal and Stanford.  You know what I've been saying about Stanford.  Great school both athletically and academically, has virtually every sport, located in the San Francisco media market.  It's a school that I would think would be at the top of the list for any conference looking to expand.  And Cal, Stanford's rival and travel partner makes sense, too, especially since the State of California had similar concerns as those of Oregon and Washington before agreeing to let UCLA move (and separating the two largest state universities).

Now, I'm not sure how serious these rumors are.  UCLA and USC will put the Big Ten at 16, and there's been some talk about them wanting to get to 20 (Big Ten x 2?), so Stanford and Cal would definitely get them closer to that goal.  And, should that happen, it wouldn't just cripple the Pac-12, it would basically kill it.

Should that happen, don't be surprised if the Big 12 steps in.  They apparently want Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah, which would get them to 16 teams to match the SEC, Big Ten and ACC.  What's ironic is that not too long ago, it was the Big 12 in the Pac-12's current position.  After losing their marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma, to the SEC, the Big 12 was the one in limbo.  Then they made some great expansion additions and will be stronger than ever.  And in a position to get even stronger should they add the four Pac-12 teams.

If both of those rumors are true and both the Big Ten and Big 12 expand by poaching Pac-12 teams that would, ironically, leave just the two Oregons and the two Washingtons among the existing Pac-12 members.  I'll include San Diego State and SMU as Pac-12 schools for the sake of this discussion, but even with them, that's just six schools.  And six schools a Power 5 conference does not make.

What's ironic is that, because of the state governments' stance, the four Washington and Oregon schools are essentially bound together in the same conference.  Which really limits their options.  They either become the tentpoles in whatever the new Pac-12 looks like or go as a four-team package to another league, which would gain two marquee programs in Oregon and Washington.

So, what becomes of the Pac-12 then?  The easy answer is the Mountain West.  UNLV, Nevada, San Jose State, Boise State and New Mexico would seem obvious choices should they go that route.  Hawaii would be an intriguing possibility, as well, or, if they're not interested, maybe you go Fresno State?  Or you do basically a full-on Pac-12/Mountain West merger and take all of them, as well as the remaining Mountain West members Utah State, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force.  That would create either a 16- or 17-team conference, depending on Hawaii.

With the amount of money in big-time college football, which is what's dictating everything, you know the Pac-12 isn't going to just sit there and let itself get raided into oblivion.  Especially with the College Football Playoff expanding from four teams to 12 in 2024-25.  And the Mountain West schools would certainly be on board with associating themselves with a Power 5 brand.  Even if it's the weakest Power 5 conference, it's still considered a higher level than the Mountain West and would theoretically make one of those 12 CFP berths a little more accessible.

Yes, I understand that my scenario sacrifices the Mountain West, which is usually one of the top non-Power 5 conferences in both basketball and football.  But, the Mountain West, as good as it is, has only been around since 1998 (and was only created after the WAC overexpanded in the mid-90s).  And that's exactly why that would be the conference the Pac-12 would target for new members.  Not just because of geography, but for competitive reasons, too.

And a Pac-12/Mountain West quasi-merger would actually make a lot of sense.  Because of their proximity, a lot of them already play each other, and the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation, which is the secondary conference for teams in sports that the Pac-12 or Mountain West doesn't sponsor, consists of mainly Pac-12 and Mountain West teams.  Besides, there aren't many FBS schools on the West Coast as it is, so the options for the Pac-12 are already limited, unless they want to extend the conference footprint by encroaching on an area that the SEC, Big Ten or ACC has already claimed as its own.

For me, the saddest part of all this is that it's the Big Ten doing this to the Pac-12.  The Big Ten, which has been the Pac-12's partner in so many ways for so long.  They've had such a great working relationship that goes so far beyond the Rose Bowl.  The Big Ten and Pac-12 are so similar, too.  Except one's in the Midwest and the other's on the West Coast.

That relationship, obviously, isn't symbiotic any longer.  They won't even have that Rose Bowl tie-in after the CFP expansion.  So, it really will be the end of an era.  It's every man for himself now.  While the rich will continue to look for ways to get richer, everyone else will be left fighting for survival.  And only time will tell whether the Pac-12 survives.  I sure hope it does!