What A Wonderful World Baseball Classic

I know it's been 10 days since the World Baseball Classic and the regular season has started, but I promised a WBC wrap-up post once I was done with my season preview.  So here it is.  It's a little late, but, really, so what?  That World Baseball Classic was tremendous and deserves one!

That final between Japan and the United States was a perfect ending to an outstanding tournament.  And the script couldn't have been written any better.  Shohei Ohtani vs. Mike Trout, arguably the two best players in the world, teammates during the season, facing each other in a one-run game with the championship on the line.  It was the final--and the situation--that most fans were rooting for.  The fact that we actually got it was just the icing on the cake!

It had been six years since the last World Baseball Classic, but it was well worth the wait.  Because the 2023 edition was the best ever!  And, frankly, it wasn't even that close!  It was a tremendous display of what everything this tournament can and should be.  It was everything MLB, the WBSC and the MLBPA envisioned when the World Baseball Classic was created.  Most importantly, it showcased the game at its absolute best.  It was playoff intensity in March.

There will always be the critics who don't like the WBC for whatever reason, but some of the arguments against it were particularly dumb.  I forget who it was who suggested that they still have the World Baseball Classic, but have it without Major League players.  That's the entire point of the tournament!  Major League players getting a chance to represent their country in an international tournament to determine who's the best in the world...like every other sport has!

Almost as dumb was the suggestion that, instead of having it during Spring Training, they play the World Baseball Classic in the middle of the season.  That also completely misses the point!  For starters, it would be logistically impossible.  A Major League season consists of 162 games in 186 days, which already includes a four-day All*Star Break, so there isn't really time for much else.  Let alone a tournament that's played all over the world.  And, not to mention, giving the teams time to actually get together before the tournament starts.

And don't get me started on the people whose issues with the WBC are because of injuries.  It obviously sucks that Jose Altuve, Edwin Diaz and Adam Wainwright got hurt.  But, you know what?  Altuve just as easily could've broken his hand getting hit by a pitch in a Spring Training game!  Wainwright didn't even get hurt in a game.  He got hurt working out in the weight room, which also just as easily could've happened in Cardinals camp.  As for Diaz, his was a freak injury that he got celebrating a big Puerto Rico win.  Which tells you all you need to know about how much enthusiasm the players have for the event. 

More active Major Leaguers participated in this year's WBC than any previous edition.  That tells you how important this is to them.  That even included Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. playing for Cuba, the first time Cuba has ever welcomed Major Leaguers back to the national team.  Shohei Ohtani wore the uniform of Samurai Japan for the first time since coming over to the Majors.  Mike Trout wanted to be a part of Team USA so badly that he committed pretty much as soon as he saw the U.S. win gold without him in 2017.  And he's already committed for 2026, as well.

In general, Commissioner Rob Manfred is very pleased with the number of Major League players who took part.  Well, for the most part at least.  He was happy about the number of hitters who agreed to play, but he'd like to see more starting pitchers make the commitment in 2026.  Some countries had no problem getting their top arms on board.  The United States, however, was generally met with apathy from big-name starting pitchers, who either didn't want to be throwing high-stress innings so early in the Spring, were worried about injuries and/or didn't want their Spring Training routine disrupted.

Working around the various restrictions placed on the players by each of their 30 Major League employers is another challenge the WBC has to deal with.  USA Manager Mark DeRosa admitted that he wasn't able to handle his pitching staff the way he would've wanted to in the Mexico game because of the limitations placed on him by the MLB clubs.  That, unfortunately, is a necessary evil.  Some MLB teams embrace the WBC more than others, but they're all more concerned with winning a World Series in October, so you get why they'd be cautious.  You'd also have to think that there's a happy medium to be found, though.

So, there is still some work to be done.  And the top priority on that list is getting commitments from more top American starting pitchers.  Everybody else has bought in, though.  Francisco Lindor said it best when he talked about the pride that comes with putting on your national team jersey.  And that passion carries over into the stands, where the fans of every country came out and turned every game into a party.

We saw some history during the tournament.  Japan became the second team to go through the tournament undefeated.  Puerto Rico pitched the first-ever WBC combined perfect game.  Mexico reached the semifinals for the first time, while Australia and Italy made the quarterfinals.  And WBC newcomers Great Britain and the Czech Republic not only won games, they automatically qualified for the 2026 tournament.

Each of the five World Baseball Classics has used a different format, but I think this year they finally found the one that works.  The expansion to 20 teams meant groups of five, which gave everybody a minimum of four games.  What I loved the most, though, was the addition of a single-elimination quarterfinal round rather than a second round of pool play.  They should definitely keep this format moving forward.

Of course, we also had an unprecedented situation in Pool A.  All four teams finished with identical 2-2 records.  The tiebreaker is a little convoluted, but it resulted in Cuba (which started 0-2) winning the group and Italy also advancing to the quarterfinals, while the Netherlands (which started 2-0) was eliminated along with Panama.  Chinese Taipei, meanwhile, will have to requalify after finishing last, despite winning two games.

Chinese Taipei obviously drew the short straw in that situation, but it really says a lot about the state of international baseball that 18 of the 20 teams won at least one game.  Only China and Nicaragua went 0-4 (although, Nicaragua actually held its own in a monster pool).  Meanwhile, Japan and Venezuela were the only teams to finish pool play 4-0.  The Dominican Republic, the pre-tournament favorite, didn't advance to the quarterfinals.  Neither did South Korea.  And the United States lost to Mexico, which lost to a Colombia team that finished last in the pool (after losing to both Canada and Great Britain) and will also have to requalify.

If I were to suggest any possible improvements for the 2026 World Baseball Classic, it would be to balance the pools a little better.  I get why they have all of the Asian teams play in Asia and why they have all of the teams heavy on MLB players play in North America.  But that's what led to the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and Venezuela--three teams that were capable of winning the whole thing--all ending up in the same pool.  Meanwhile, the pools in Taiwan and Japan were significantly weaker by comparison.  That's nitpicking, though.  And logistically that might be tough.  So if they have to keep it the same way in 2026, so be it.

Simply put, the 2023 World Baseball Classic was baseball at its best.  It had an October feel in the middle of March, and the quality of play was superb.  Best of all, it had a terrific final to cap it off.  The World Baseball Classic was created as a way to showcase the game that is beloved by so many around the world.  Mission accomplished!  Because that's exactly what it was!  A show!

MLB 2023 (NL Central)

We made it!  Happy Opening Day!  The World Baseball Classic was a nice little teaser, but the 162-game grind of the MLB season is back!  We've got seven months of baseball ahead of us!  Which means I should probably finish off my season preview.

There's one division left--the NL Central.  Last year, it came down to St. Louis and Milwaukee, with the Cardinals ultimately winning the division.  I don't think it'll be nearly as close this year.  Simply put, the Cardinals are the best team in the division.  And I don't even really think it's that close!  So, it's really up to the Cardinals.  They're fully capable of running away with it, which they're fully capable of doing.  But they also have a tendency to look downright mediocre for a few months in the middle of the season before turning it on at the end, and if that happens, the Brewers might have a chance.

Milwaukee's the only other team worth even being in the discussion.  And the Brewers are certainly capable, especially if the Cardinals falter.  The Cubs should be better this year, too.  Their breakdown and rebuild appears to be complete, and they dipped their toes back into the free agent market this offseason.  Are they good enough to challenge the Cardinals and Brewers?  No.  Are they going to lose 95 games?  Also no.

Unfortunately, the Reds and Pirates look like they both will be in 95-loss territory.  That's the thing about the National League.  All three divisions have two really bad teams.  And in the Central, those two teams happen to be Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.  The Pirates at least have some guys who'll be able to get out of there at the trade deadline.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: Albert Pujols and Yadi Molina both retired, next to be seen five years from now in Cooperstown.  Adam Wainwright was planning on retiring, too, but after a good 2022, he decided to come back for one more year.  He even pitched in the WBC for Team USA (and will miss the start of the season after injuring himself in a weight room workout).  Wainwright was one of four Cardinals on Team USA, and St. Louis sent more players to the WBC than anybody.  Which means this team doesn't just have talent, it's deep too.

Paul Goldschmidt is coming off an MVP campaign, and Nolan Arenado finished third in the MVP race last year.  The thought of somebody other than Yadi Molina behind the plate is still a little weird, but, by poaching Willson Contreras from the Cubs, they replaced him with the best option available.  I've gotta tell you, it's hard to find a weakness in this team.  The Cardinals aren't as good as the Padres or the Braves or the Mets, but their position in October should be secure.
Projected Lineup: Lars Nootbaar-RF, Tommy Edman-SS, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Willson Contreras-C, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Dylan Carlson-CF, Paul DeJong-DH, Brendan Donovan-2B
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz 
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are kind of the National League version of Tampa Bay.  The small-market team that somehow always finds a way to hang around and challenge for a playoff spot until the end.  Doesn't mean they'll necessarily get there.  But it does mean that they'll get close enough to make some moves at the deadline and potentially sneak into a division title if the Cardinals falter.  Which is something they're definitely capable of doing.

I actually really like some of the moves they made during the offseason.  William Contreras gets out of that platoon situation in Atlanta and is now catching in the same division as his brother.  The Rowdy Tellez/Luke Voit combo will give them a ton of home runs at first base.  And they've always had really good pitching.  With Josh Hader now in San Diego, Devin Williams is the closer instead of the setup guy, so the bullpen's not as deep.  But, with starters who can go six or seven and a good closer in Williams, they'll only need the rest of the bullpen to get about six outs a night, which they should be able to do.
Projected Lineup: Willy Adames-SS, Luis Urias-3B, Christian Yelich-LF, Rowdy Tellez-1B, William Contreras-C, Jesse Winker-DH, Brian Anderson-RF, Garrett Mitchell-CF, Brice Turang-2B
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley
Closer: Devin Williams
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Chicago Cubs: After a few years of not trying, the Cubs have reentered the world of baseball teams who care.  They shed payroll like it was nobody's business, losing all of the key players from their World Series team as free agents and replacing them from within their Minor League system.  But this offseason, they went out and brought in Dansby Swanson from Atlanta, as well as a couple guys who needed a change of scenery--Cody Bellinger and Eric Hosmer.  Bellinger's not too far removed from being NL MVP, and if he can find that form again, that signing will look even better.

It's not just in the lineup where they'll have a new face playing a prominent role, either.  Jameson Taillon returns to the NL Central after his stint with the Yankees and slots into the No. 4 slot in the rotation.  Assuming he stays healthy, he's a pretty good No. 4 starter!  I'll admit, the Cubs don't look like they'll be that bad.  I actually can see this team sticking around in the wild card race.  They aren't good enough to snag a wild card.  But they are good enough to make the Cardinals and Brewers have to work for it in the division.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-LF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Patrick Wisdom-3B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Trey Mancini-DH, Yan Gomes-C, Nico Hoerner-2B
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele
Closer: Michael Fulmer
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Cincinnati Reds: This Cincinnati team won't be as enjoyable to watch as some Reds teams in recent years.  Those teams hit a ton of home runs, but had no pitching and lost 9-7.  I'm sure they'll still hit their share of home runs, but most of the veterans who hit them in the past are now playing elsewhere.  All but the one constant in Cincinnati.  Joey Votto.  He skipped the World Baseball Classic to get ready for the season, his 17th with the Reds.  Unfortunately, he's seen a lot of losing over the previous 16 years, and Year 17 likely won't be much different.

Even if the offense is able to put up enough runs, their pitching staff is horrible.  It's possibly the worst rotation in the Majors.  It's also one of the youngest.  Their top three starters were all rookies last season.  The learning on the job is a good thing, I guess, but it'll come with its share of growing pains.  Same thing with the bullpen.  Closer Alexis Diaz is also in his second season, although he's coming off a solid rookie year (7-3, 1.84 ERA, 10/14 in saves).  Getting to Diaz is the problem, though.  That's where things can get dicey.
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Nick Senzel-CF, Joey Votto-1B, Wil Myers-RF, Jake Fraley-LF, Curt Casali-DH, Tyler Stephenson-C, Spencer Steer-3B, Jose Barrero-SS
Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Luke Weaver, Luis Cessa
Closer: Alexis Diaz
Projected Record: 68-94

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Most of Pittsburgh's best players will likely no longer be Pirates come August.  So, Pirates fans better enjoy David Bednar, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz (and maybe even Ke'Bryan Hayes) while they still can.  Which is actually quite a compliment to the Pirates.  They develop great young players and give them an opportunity.  They just know they won't be able to hold on to them, so they flip them for value before losing them for nothing as free agents.  It's a vicious cycle!  And it appears likely to continue in 2023.

Also, shout out to 43-year-old Rich Hill!  He signed with the Pirates after a solid season in Boston last year and will be in the rotation.  Vince Velasquez also joins the rotation, which has holdovers JT Brubaker and Mitch Keller.  Those two made a combined 57 starts last season and went a combined 8-24.  That's not a knock on them.  It's just a sad fact of life when pitching for a team like Pittsburgh.  Kind of like how they've got an excellent closer in David Bednar, but you'd never know it by his save totals.  It's kind of hard to get saves when you're losing late in the game, though.
Projected Lineup: Bryan Reynolds-CF, Oneil Cruz-SS, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Carlos Santana-DH, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Andrew McCutchen-RF, Connor Joe-LF, Austin Hedges-C, Rodolfo Castro-2B
Projected Rotation: JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Vince Velasquez, Rich Hill, Roansy Contreras
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 64-98

So, there you have it.  What I think will happen in all six divisions this season.  Just to recap, my AL playoffs have the Astros and Yankees getting byes, with the White Sox taking on the Angels and the Blue Jays facing the Guardians in the Wild Card Series.  In the National League, I've got the byes into the Division Series going to Atlanta and San Diego, while my Wild Card Series are Cardinals vs. Phillies and Mets vs. Dodgers.

And, call me crazy, but I've just got a feeling about San Diego.  I really think the Padres are the team to beat this season.  So much so that they're my pick to win the World Series, where they'll knock off the defending champion Astros.

MLB 2023 (AL West)

In the AL West, it's the same old story.  The Houston Astros are really good.  The Oakland A's are really bad.  And who knows with the other three teams!  The Angels have the two best players in the world and should be good, but aren't.  The Rangers spend money like it's nobody's business, yet they haven't been good either.  And the Mariners finally snapped North America's longest playoff drought last season!

So, what should we expect in 2023?  Frankly, I have no idea.  Houston will do its thing and run away with the division.  Oakland will play bad baseball in a mostly empty terrible, gigantic stadium and move one season closer to moving to Las Vegas.  And, if one of the other three teams gets its act together, they could easily make the playoffs.  Although, it's just as likely they'll find a way to finish 78-84.

I'm curious to see what the effect of fewer division games will be in the AL West, especially.  Houston's good enough that playing Oakland six less times shouldn't impact its win total too much.  The others had issues finishing above .500 even when they did play 19 games against the A's, though, so is it possible that they'll all end up winning less games this season?

Still, you've got to think that one of the three will manage to hang around the playoff race until the end.  We might even see a second AL West team in the postseason.  Three AL West playoff teams is even a possibility!  It's unlikely.  But it's possible.

1. Houston Astros: Only the Astros can lose a pitcher like Justin Verlander and be completely fine.  Houston has so much pitching depth that they threw a combined no-hitter in the World Series with their No. 4 starter on the mound...and the guy who started a combined no-hitter during the season in the bullpen!  So, yeah.  They'll be just fine without Verlander.  And they haven't had a lefty in the bullpen in like three years, so they're obviously fine there, too.

Lineup-wise, they've actually improved, too.  They replaced Yuli Gurriel with Jose Abreu, who gets plugged right into the middle of an already loaded lineup.  Losing Jose Altuve (who, by the way, could just as easily have broken his hand getting hit by a pitch in a Spring Training game) will hurt a little, but if there's any team that can weather that, it's the Astros.  That might actually make Altuve fresher when they get him back, too.  Because there's no question this team will be playing in October.  It would actually be a shock to not see them playing in a seventh consecutive ALCS.
Projected Lineup: Jeremy Pena-SS, Michael Brantley-LF, Alex Bregman-3B, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Jose Abreu-1B, Alex Tucker-RF, Chas McCormick-CF, Mauricio Dubon-2B, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier
Closer: Ryan Pressly
Projected Record: 102-60

2. Los Angeles Angels: During the World Baseball Classic, the $1 million question was asked multiple times.  How can a team with the two best players in the world repeatedly not only miss the playoffs, but finish under .500?  It's a valid question.  Because the Angels should be good.  Yet, Trout has played a grand total of THREE playoff games in his entire career--all losses to the Royals.  Nine years ago!  And the answer is because they don't spend their money wisely.  They got all-in on injury-prone free agent sluggers and completely forget about pitching, which is something you kinda need!

For a change, pitching was the thing they addressed during the offseason.  Tyler Anderson comes over from across town to be the No. 2 behind Ohtani, and No. 3 Patrick Sandoval started the WBC semifinal for Mexico.  Interestingly, all of their starting pitchers other than Ohtani are left-handed (and Ohtani hits lefty), and they'll be the key to the Angels' success.  As usual.  This team can be good as long as it gets good enough pitching.  Because we know what their offense can do!  And did I mention they have the two best players in the game at the moment?
Projected Lineup: Shohei Ohtani-DH, Mike Trout-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Jared Walsh-1B, Taylor Ward-LF, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Max Stassi-C, David Fletcher-2B, Luis Rengifo-SS
Projected Rotation: Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Tucker Davidson, Reid Detmers
Closer: Jimmy Herget
Projected Record: 87-75 (Wild Card 3)

3. Seattle Mariners: Seattle's playoff berth last season was a long time coming.  And it was the product of finally making enough of the right moves to put the right team together.  Now it's a matter of keeping it going.  Which they're plenty capable of doing.  The Mariners' lineup might actually be a little deeper this season with the additions of Teoscar Hernandez, A.J. Pollock and Kolten Wong to go along with the likes of Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Ty France.  So they shouldn't have any problem with the bats.

On the pitching front, though, is where they really need to replicate their 2022 success.  Luis Castillo proved to be the ace they needed down the stretch after acquiring him from Cincinnati, and Robbie Ray is two years removed from winning the Cy Young in Toronto.  His first season with the Mariners wasn't great, though.  Logan Gilbert and George Kirby were actually much better.  But that's just it.  Can Gilbert and Kirby be just as good or better this season?
Projected Lineup: Jose Rodrigez-CF, Kolten Wong-2B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Ty France-1B, Teoscar Hernandez-DH, Jarred Kelenic-RF, Cal Raleigh-C, A.J. Pollock-LF, J.P. Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Marco Gonzalez
Closer: Paul Sewald
Projected Record: 83-79

4. Texas Rangers: Signing Jacob deGrom was a huge coup on paper.  Everyone just assumed he'd re-sign with the Mets, only for him to ink a five-year deal with Texas.  However, deGrom is so injury prone that the contract is such a massive risk that, frankly, doesn't seem like it'll pan out.  If it does, and deGrom pitches like the guy who was the best in the sport for a while, then the Rangers might be in decent shape.  If it doesn't and he misses a ton of starts, then they'll miss the playoffs once again.

Even with deGrom, though, I'm not sure the Rangers are good enough to be a playoff team.  They've got so much invested in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but don't really have enough around them.  Which means Texas will need a lot of things to go right to have a chance.  Playing in the AL West certainly gives them an opportunity.  Because there are just as many question marks surrounding the Angels and Mariners.  On paper, I can't say the Rangers are better than either of them, though.  I see Texas as a .500 team, but not much more than that.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-2B, Leodys Taveras-CF, Corey Seager-SS, Adolis Garcia-RF, Nathaniel Lowe-1B, Mitch Garver-DH, Jonah Heim-C, Josh Jung-3B, Bubba Thompson-LF
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Jon Gray, Martin Perez, Nathan Eovaldi
Closer: Ian Kennedy
Projected Record: 80-82

5. Oakland Athletics: Let's be real here.  It's far more likely that Oakland will lose 100 games than be anywhere near .500, let alone in the playoff conversation.  I don't even think they'll have that much competition for the worst record in baseball (although, that wouldn't guarantee them the No. 1 pick now that there's a lottery).  I wish I could say something a little more optimistic, but I just can't.  The A's are not a good team.  There really isn't any way to sugarcoat it.

Paul Blackburn was Oakland's All*Star last year, and it seems probable that he'll be in a different uniform by the end of the season.  Because you know there'll be a pitching-needy contender who'll be in the market for a quality back-of-the-rotation starter.  They don't really have anybody else a contender might want/need at the trade deadline.  Maybe Jesus Aguliar if they're looking for a power-hitting first baseman/DH.  I can't see them moving any of their young guys, though.  That'll be the core of the team in a few years.  It's really just a matter of if that team will be playing its home games in Oakland or Las Vegas.  The quality of the team this season won't help get that new ballpark in Oakland built, though.  Because the cavernous Oakland Coliseum will be practically empty most nights.
Projected Lineup: Cristian Pache-CF, Tony Kemp-LF, Jesus Aguilar-1B, Jace Peterson-3B, Shea Langeliers-DH, Seth Brown-RF, Aledmys Diaz-SS, Tyler Wade-2B, Manny Pina-C
Projected Rotation: Paul Blackburn, James Kaprielian, JP Sears, Adam Oller, Ken Waldichuk
Closer: Dany Jimenez
Projected Record: 57-105

MLB 2023 (AL Central)

We've reached the stretch run.  This is our final Sunday before the start of baseball season!  Which means I've got to hurry up and get through the last three divisions.  Today's installment: the AL Central.

The AL Central should've been a two-horse race last season, but ended up anything but.  The White Sox entered the season as a sleeper World Series pick, but Tony La Russa proved to be not in touch with the modern game and they dramatically underachieved, finishing .500.  Cleveland, meanwhile, had the youngest roster in baseball and ran away with the division, going 92-70 and taking the Yankees to five games in the Division Series.

Hopefully, this year, it actually is a race between the White Sox and Guardians.  On paper, Chicago is still the better team.  You can't count Cleveland out, though.  Not when they have that experience from last season and a top-notch pitching staff.  It should only take around 90 wins to win the division, but if they're both in the 88-92 range, they could both end up being playoff teams.

Minnesota didn't really get better, but the Twins didn't really get worse, either.  They're not at the same level as the White Sox or Guardians, nor are they as bad as the Tigers and Royals.  Detroit and Kansas City are probably looking at 90-loss territory.  Although, there is at least some reason to watch the Tigers since it's Miguel Cabrera's last season.

1. Chicago White Sox: A whole bunch of White Sox not only played in the World Baseball Classic, but went far.  Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. played for Cuba, while Tim Anderson and Lance Lynn were on Team USA.  Anderson, especially, had a great WBC, and he showed that he's able to play second base very capably, which could be huge for the White Sox.  That gives them so much more versatility.  Although, there's no question that Anderson is their starting shortstop.  He's also the spark plug that makes the team go.

They did lose their biggest power threat, Jose Abreu, in free agency, so that's one area of concern on the South Side.  Andrew Benintendi's their big free agent addition, but he's more of a contact guy.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they go after a first baseman during the season (Luke Voit?).  Still, if they get the pitching that their staff is capable of, they may not need to worry about scoring too many runs.  Giolito, Lynn and Cease are solid at the top of the rotation, and they have a top-notch closer in Liam Hendriks, as well as a strong setup man in Kendall Graveman.  The pitching staff could be the key to success for the White Sox this season.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Andrew Vaughn-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Eloy Jimenez-DH, Luis Robert Jr.-CF, Gavin Sheets-RF, Leury Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Mike Clevinger
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Projected Record: 91-71

2. Cleveland Guardians: Can Cleveland repeat last year's success?  That's the real question heading into this season.  Because, in a lot of ways, the Guardians overachieved last year.  And they certainly took advantage of being in a weak division.  But, they proved their mettle against the Yankees in the Division Series, so there's no doubt they were legitimately good.  And they got better during the offseason.  They lost Carlos Santana in free agency, but replaced him with Josh Bell, who's basically a younger version of the same player.  They can plug him right in there behind Jose Ramirez.

It's the pitching that will make or break Cleveland's season, though.  The Guardians have an excellent front of the rotation and a good closer in Emmanuel Clase.  Their pitching staff isn't very deep, however.  One injury could cause major problems, and I'm not sure how good their bullpen is outside of Clase.  That's why I give the slight edge to the White Sox.  I can definitely see Cleveland as a wild card team, though.
Projected Lineup: Steven Kwan-LF, Andres Gimenez-2B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Josh Bell-1B, Oscar Gonzalez-RF, Josh Naylor-DH, Myles Straw-CF, Mike Zunino-C, Amed Rosario-SS
Projected Rotation: Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill, Triston McKenzie
Closer: Emmanuel Clase
Projected Record: 89-73 (Wild Card 2)

3. Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa left as a free agent and signed with the Giants.  Then he failed his physical and signed with the Mets instead.  Then he failed his physical again and ended up back on the Twins (if he failed their physical, it would've been a problem, seeing as he played for them last year).  That's about the extent of the excitement about the Twins' offseason.  They traded Luis Arraez, arguably their best player, to Miami in a move I still don't quite understand, and sent Gio Urshela to the Angels.  They also cut Gary Sanchez, replacing him with Christian Vazquez, who caught the World Series no-hitter for Houston.  They also took a chance on Joey Gallo, who, hilariously, is apparently still going to get shifted even though it's been banned!

Minnesota's pitching isn't anywhere near good enough to compete with the White Sox and Guardians, which is why I don't see them finishing any higher than third.  Sonny Gray may be their nominal No. 1 starter, but he's not an ace.  They got Pablo Lopez in the Arraez trade to be the No. 2 when he really is better than Gray.  Being a No. 2 behind Sandy Alcantara in Miami made sense.  Being a No. 2 behind Sonny Gray in Minnesota does not.  And the Twins' bullpen is not very good.  They're gonna need to rely on outscoring teams.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jorge Polanco-2B, Carlos Correa-SS, Jose Miranda-3B, Alex Kiriloff-1B, Max Kepler-RF, Joey Gallo-DH, Christian Vazquez-C, Michael A. Taylor-LF
Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan
Closer: Jhoan Duran
Projected Record: 74-88

4. Detroit Tigers: There isn't really much to say about the Tigers.  They won't be good, and they know it.  But, still, getting to see a future Hall of Famer in the final season of his brilliant 21-year career at least gives you a reason to care.  And, even with Jeimer Candelario gone, they have a couple other guys worth watching, too, starting with Spencer Torkelson, the former No. 1 overall pick who's poised to take over as the Face of the Franchise.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Tyler Nevin earns a regular place in the lineup sooner rather than later.

Beyond the young guys, though, I don't see much of a reason to be optimistic about the Tigers this year.  Their best pitcher was their closer Gregory Soto, who they flipped to the Phillies for Nick Maton and Matt Vierling, who were both on the World Series roster, but didn't have a place in Philadelphia long-term.  That trade could actually be beneficial for the Tigers, even if it's just for the experience factor of adding two guys who played in the World Series.  Unless they get traded again, they definitely will NOT be playing in the World Series this year (or probably any time soon).  When the Lions are arguably the best team in Detroit right now, you know there are some lean times going on in the Motor City.
Projected Lineup: Akil Baddoo-LF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Javier Baez-SS, Spencer Torkelson-1B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Austin Meadows-RF, Eric Haase-C, Ryan Kreidler-3B, Riley Greene-CF
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull
Closer: Jose Cisnero
Projected Record: 67-95

5. Kansas City Royals: Kansas City signing Aroldis Chapman actually made complete sense to me.  I figured he'd go to a small-market, not-very-good team in hopes of having a little career reset before they can trade him to a reliever-needy reliever at the deadline.  Which is exactly what I expect the Royals to do.  Chapman joins with Scott Barlow and Amir Garrett to give them a back end of the bullpen that's fairly strong.  Problem is, rest of the team's not.  And I'm not sure Brady Singer's WBC appearance actually helped him.

He was one of several Royals who played in the WBC.  They actually wanted their guys to go because they thought the experience would be important.  Salvador Perez further proved that he's one of the best catchers in baseball by making the All-Tournament Team, Vinnie Pasquantino helped Italy reach the quarterfinals, and Bobby Witt Jr., despite playing a limited role, was an important member of Team USA.  All of which is encouraging for the Royals.  They'll be bad again this year, but their chances of being good in the future actually look pretty good.  Especially if those guys have big years in 2023.
Projected Lineup: Nicky Lopez-3B, Bobby Witt Jr.-SS, Salvador Perez-C, Hunter Dozier-DH, Vinnie Pasquantino-1B, Kyle Isbel-RF, Drew Waters-CF, Michael Massey-2B, MJ Melendez-LF
Projected Rotation: Zach Greinke, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Scott Barlow
Projected Record: 64-98

MLB 2023 (NL East)

That was an incredible WBC, capped by two outstanding wins by a very deserving championship team from Japan.  I'll have plenty about the WBC soon enough (including my responses to some of ridiculously dumb suggestions regarding the tournament's future), but not until I finish with the season preview.  Today's installment features arguably the best division in baseball--the NL East.

Last season, the NL East had three playoff teams that peaked at different times.  The Mets got off to an incredible start and looked unbeatable at the All*Star Break.  Then the Braves got hot and caught them for the division title.  Only for both of them to lose their first playoff series, while the Phillies, who only got in as the third wild card because of the new format, played their best baseball of the season in October and went all the way to the World Series.

Look for another three-way battle this season.  And look for them all to make the playoffs again.  As for the order of finish, your guess is as good as mine!  Because I can see any of the three winning the division...as long as they stay healthy!  That will be the key for all three NL East contenders.

Then there's the Marlins and Nationals, who wouldn't be competitive regardless of what division they're in, but really have no chance in the NL East!  And, with fewer division games to play this season, they'll have less of a role in deciding who does win it.

1. Atlanta Braves: I went back and forth between the Braves and Mets before ultimately settling on Atlanta as my pick for the division champion.  As you can see by my projected records, I have it going right down to the season's final day.  I can't really put my finger on why either.  I just have a feeling the Braves will work their late-season magic again.  The same late-season magic that brought them a World Series championship in 2021 and a division title last season.  But the difference between them and the Mets is infinitesimal.

So why am I going with the Braves?  I just think they're a little more complete.  There isn't a hole in their lineup, which includes the catching tag team of Travis d'Arnaud and Sean Murphy, who comes over from Oakland to join his buddy Matt Olson.  I don't know how they plan on splitting the duties, but they felt comfortable enough with what they had to trade William Contreras.  Of course, a lot of this relies on the expectation that everyone stays healthy.  Atlanta, unfortunately, doesn't have the greatest track record in that area.  If they do get a full season of their core hitters, though, look out!  They could win 100 games.
Projected Lineup: Michael Harris II-CF, Ozzie Albies-SS, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Matt Olson-1B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Austin Riley-3B, Eddie Rosario-LF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, Collin McHugh
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 94-68

2. New York Mets: The Mets are stacked!  There's no other way to put it.  Jacob deGrom left as a free agent, so they replaced him with Justin Verlander.  They lost Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.  So they brought in Jose Qunitana and Kodai Senga.  And you can bet that, as devastating as Edwin Diaz's injury is, they'll go out and get a closer if they need to.  Which they might not have to do, since David Robertson is perfectly capable.

Of course, relying on two 40-somethings at the top of the rotation is a gamble.  If they both stay healthy, though, that's the top 1-2 punch in baseball, and it takes a lot of pressure off the offense.  The lineup is actually very similar to what they had last year, which is fine.  Since that lineup is pretty good!  They can outscore you when they need to and have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball.  It's easy to understand why their goal isn't just making the playoffs or just winning the division.  They want to play deep into October.  And they certainly have all the pieces to do just that.
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-2B, Starling Marte-RF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Daniel Vogelbach-DH, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Mark Canha-LF, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Omar Narvaez-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 93-69 (Wild Card 1)

3. Philadelphia Phillies: After becoming the first third-place team ever to reach the World Series, the Phillies went out and got even better.  Adding Trea Turner only makes the lineup that much deeper, and it'll get deeper still when they get Bryce Harper back in July.  One thing we know is that this team will hit plenty of home runs, especially playing their home games at Citizens Bank Park.  Which is good.  Because on some nights, they're definitely gonna need to outscore you.

Don't get me wrong.  Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are a phenomenal 1-2.  But this is a division full of great 1-2's, so the rest of the rotation will also need to be a strength.  Signing Taijuan Walker certainly helps.  That gives them a formidable 1-2-3.  And we'll see if Ranger Suarez can keep his October success going as a full-time member of the rotation.  As good as the Phillies are, though, I still think they're only the third-best team in the division.  Which says a lot more about the Braves and Mets than it does about Philadelphia.  Because I can easily see them making another World Series run as a wild card team.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, J.T. Realmuto-C, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Nick Castellanos-RF, Alec Bohm-3B, Josh Harrison-DH, Brandon Marsh-CF, Bryson Stott-2B
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, Bailey Falter
Closer: Seranthony Dominguez
Projected Record: 85-77 (Wild Card 3)

4. Miami Marlins: It tells you all you need to know about Sandy Alcantara that he was a runaway Cy Young winner while pitching for a non-competitive fourth-place team.  The Marlins are competitive on the days Alcantara pitches, though.  In fact, in a division where everybody's No. 1 starter is outstanding, he might be the best.  And the Marlins are much more formidable every time he's on the mound.

Unfortunately, Alcantara can only pitch once every five days.  Which means somebody else has to pitch on the other four.  And therein lies the problem.  The Marlins aren't a "bad' team.  They just don't have enough to be good in a powerhouse division.  Still, they're in better shape than the bottom teams in the NL Central and NL West.  They've actually got some worthwhile guys in the lineup, and they even brought in a couple big names in Luis Arraez and Yuli Gurriel.  Arraez's arrival means Jazz Chisholm Jr. moves from second base to center field, so let's see how he takes to the new position.  If he can make that adjustment and the rest of the lineup produces, Miami could be a sleeper team this season.
Projected Lineup: Jazz Chisholm Jr.-CF, Luis Arraez-2B, Avisail Garcia-RF, Jorge Soler-LF, Garrett Cooper-1B, Yuli Gurriel-DH, Joey Wendle-SS, Jean Segura-3B, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Johnny Cueto, Trevor Rogers, Edward Cabrera
Closer: Matt Barnes
Projected Record: 71-91

5. Washington Nationals: Everyone knows what's going on in the nation's capital.  The Nationals are in full-blown rebuild mode.  That's why they traded their best player, Juan Soto, to the Padres at last season's trade deadline and threw in Josh Bell, too.  They were the two biggest names in a Nationals lineup that is now anchored by former Dodgers prospect Keibert Ruiz (who they got in the Max Scherzer trade at the 2021 deadline) and Tigers expat Jeimer Candelario.  Although, the biggest star on the team might actually be Joey Meneses, who introduced himself to the baseball world at large with two home runs in Mexico's WBC win over the U.S.

Stephen Strasburg is still in Washington, too.  He's hopeful to return to his World Series MVP-winning form.  Also looking to return to form is Patrick Corbin, whose numbers haven't been pretty over the past several seasons.  In the three years since the Nationals' World Series run, he's 17-42 with a 5.82 ERA.  Not pretty.  Last season, he was 6-19!  Yet Corbin has also made 73 starts during that time.  So, they either think there's still something there or they're just sending him out there figuring they're gonna lose anyway, so what's the difference?  Unfortunately, it might be the latter.  Because they're right.  It doesn't matter who's pitching.  The Nationals will, once again, lose a lot of games.
Projected Lineup: Victor Robles-CF, Luis Garcia-2B, Joey Meneses-DH, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Corey Dickerson-LF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Dominic Smith-1B, Lane Thomas-RF, CJ Abrams-SS
Projected Rotation: Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Cade Cavali, Mackenzie Gore
Closer: Tanner Rainey
Projected Record: 70-92

MLB 2023 (NL West)

With the new schedule this season, it gives me a chance to do something a little different with the preview.  I usually just go AL East, AL Central, AL West, then do the National League in the same order.  So, I always end up finishing with the NL West.  But this year, I'm gonna mix it up.  Instead of keeping my usual order, I'm gonna go by the order in which I'll see the different divisions as they play the Yankees.  Which means that, since the Giants visit Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, we're going right to the NL West!

I also think we're gonna see a changing of the guard in the NL West this season.  Because it's no longer exclusively the Dodgers' domain.  In fact, I don't think the Dodgers are winning the division.  Not only are they not as good as they've been during this decade of dominating the division, they aren't the best team in the NL West.  The Padres are!

Don't get me wrong.  The Dodgers are still really good and will still likely make the playoffs.  They just won't run away with the NL West.  Which could actually be a good thing for them.  God knows they could've used a little adversity last season.  Instead, they had that historic regular season followed by a playoff flameout against their division rivals, who completely outplayed them in that Division Series, then went on to improve their team, while the Dodgers can't really make that same claim.

One of the two will win the division, and the other will likely be a wild card.  The Giants tried to make the big move during the offseason, only to come up short with every free agent they went after.  And what's there to say about the Rockies and Diamondbacks?

1. San Diego Padres: The San Diego Padres are a prime example of how small-market teams can spend money when and if they feel like it.  Will it last?  I have no idea!  My guess is probably not.  (The Padres are one of the targets of the proposed limitations on spending.)  But their willingness to spend has made them a very formidable team.  One that made the NLCS last season and enters 2023 as a definite World Series contender.  Because their weaknesses are few and far between.

Only a few months after landing Juan Soto and Josh Hader, they locked up Xander Bogaerts on a seven-year deal, making their already ridiculous lineup even longer.  They also get back Fernando Tatis Jr. from his 2022 odyssey that included both an injury and a PED suspension.  And, now that they've signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, he moves to the outfield (and is suddenly like the fourth-best player on the team).  Jake Cronenworth also moves to first because, again, the Padres have a surplus of talent.  And I haven't even talked about the pitching staff yet!  The top of their rotation is as good as anybody in the National League's (except for maybe the Mets and Dodgers), and their bullpen is ridiculously good!
Projected Lineup: Trent Grisham-CF, Juan Soto-LF, Manny Machado-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Nelson Cruz-DH, Jake Cronenworth-1B, Ha-Seong Kim-2B, Austin Nola-C
Projected Rotation: Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 93-69

2. Los Angeles Dodgers: This is the first time in I can't even remember that I'm not picking the Dodgers to win the NL West.  But this is also the first time in quite a while that they have question marks about the lineup.  Trea and Justin Turner are the latest free agents to leave, and they decided to cut ties with Cody Bellinger after a few disappointing seasons following his MVP campaign in 2019.  They also lost Gavin Lux, who was supposed to be the Opening Day shortstop, for the season to an ACL injury.  So, yeah, I've got some questions about their lineup.

There are no questions surrounding their starting rotation, however.  Even without Walker Buehler, it should once again be the strength of the team.  Clayton Kershaw is Clayton Kershaw.  Julio Urias finished third in Cy Young voting last season, Tony Gonsolin was undefeated at the All*Star Break last year, and Dustin May moves back into the rotation after missing most of 2022 due to injury.  And now they add Noah Syndergaard to that rotation.  (Also, addition by subtraction after cutting ties with Trevor Bauer.)  They still don't have a closer, which could be a problem.  But they've been grooming Brusdar Graterol to move into the role, and he should be good enough that it won't be an area they need to address at the deadline.  The lineup, however, will be.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, J.D. Martinez-DH, Will Smith-C, Max Muncy-3B, Trayce Thompson-CF, Chris Taylor-LF, Miguel Vargas-2B, Miguel Rojas-SS
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Noah Syndergaard, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May
Closer: Brusdar Graterol
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card 2)

3. San Francisco Giants: You've gotta give them credit for trying.  The Giants thought they'd signed Aaron Judge, only to see him stay with the Yankees thanks to Hal Steinbrenner's last-minute call.  They thought they'd signed Carlos Correa, only to find out he'd failed his physical literally minutes before his introductory press conference was to start.  Instead, their biggest free agent signee was Michael Conforto.  No offense to Conforto, but he's not Judge or Correa.

Had they been able to land one of those two big fish, the Giants would have a realistic shot at a wild card berth.  Instead, they're stuck with a middling lineup in a division with two powerhouse teams.  Their pitching isn't terrible, though, so there's a chance they'll hang around the race long enough to make some trades at the deadline and maybe make a late run.  They have all the makings of a .500 team, which seems like their most likely finish.
Projected Lineup: Michael Conforto-LF, Mike Yastrezmski-CF, Joc Pederson-DH, Mitch Haniger-RF, LaMonte Wade Jr.-1B, Joey Bart-C, Brandon Crawford-SS, Thairo Estrada-2B, David Villar-3B
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling
Closer: Camilo Doval
Projected Record: 81-81

4. Colorado Rockies: In the NL East, it's three teams at the top and the Marlins and Nationals battling to stay out of the basement.  In the NL West, the two teams at the bottom are the Rockies and the Diamondbacks.  Except this one's not a race to the bottom.  Because Colorado is significantly better than Arizona!  And the Rockies just improved some more by signing Jurickson Profar, who resurrected his career in San Diego.  Of course, Kris Bryant played left field for the Rockies last season, so this could see Bryant end up moving back to third base, which isn't necessary a bad thing.

Colorado actually has pretty decent starting pitching, too.  It's by no means nowhere near the level of the Dodgers or Padres, but I'd take Kyle Freeland or German Marquez.  Daniel Bard has struggled with Team USA in the WBC, but he's been solid as the Rockies' closer.  He's 60 for 71 in save opportunities since joining the Rockies in 2020.  While there likely won't be many save opportunities for him this season, it'll be a good sign if there are.
Projected Lineup: Ryan McMahon-2B, Randal Grichuk-RF, Kris Bryant-3B, C.J. Cron-1B, Charlie Blackmon-DH, Jurickson Profar-LF, Elias Diaz-C, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Yonathan Daza-CF
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Jose Urena, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner
Closer: Daniel Bard
Projected Record: 72-90

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: Colombia-Mexico might've been the best game that fans at Chase Field will see this year.  Because the Diamondbacks sure won't give them anything worth watching.  Arizona's more likely to battle teams like Oakland and Pittsburgh for the worst record and best draft lottery odds than to battle the Padres and Dodgers for NL West supremacy.  It's not that they don't have any talent.  They just don't have enough of it.  And the guys they do have are other teams' rejects.

If Arizona can get blast from the past seasons from the likes of Evan Longoria and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and if Alek Thomas can continue his otherworldly WBC play, they might actually be OK on the offensive end.  That's a lot of variables, though.  It's more likely that the Diamondbacks will live or die by their pitching.  Which is fine at the top, but nowhere near good enough to be competitive in this division of heavyweights.  Best case, they're around .500.  Worst case, they're near 100 losses.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Christian Walker-1B, Josh Rojas-DH, Evan Longoria-3B, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Carson Kelly-C, Alek Thomas-CF, Corbin Carroll-RF
Projected Rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Davies, Tommy Henry
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 63-99

MLB 2023 (AL East)

As we move into the latter stages of the World Baseball Classic, Opening Day of the 2023 MLB season draws ever closer.  It's less than two weeks away as a matter of fact.  Which means it's time to start one of my annual traditions--the six-part MLB season preview.

I'm very curious to see how the new schedule plays out.  It's going to help some teams and it's going to hurt some others.  For example, virtually the entire AL East should benefit.  Instead of playing each other 19 times, it's only 13 now, which gives the division 120 more potential wins.  They obviously won't win them all, but with 120 additional games that aren't AL East vs. AL East, all five teams could see their win totals increase.

Last year, the AL East had three playoff teams and Baltimore was THE surprise team of 2022, finishing above .500 as Brandon Hyde earned AL Manager of the Year honors.  And why can't the Orioles do it again?  After all, all of their young talent has a year of Major League experience already under their belts, and now they'll be playing fewer games against their powerhouse division opponents.

Regardless of how many games the AL East teams play against each other and how many they play against other divisions, though, the pecking order is clear.  The Yankees made the ALCS last year before getting embarrassed by the Astros.  They got better as a result and are the team to beat in the AL East.  Toronto should be their biggest challenger, and Tampa Bay is consistently in the mix.  It's really a battle between Baltimore and Boston at the bottom of the division, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if all five teams finish .500 or better.

1. New York Yankees: The Yankees went into the offseason with one clear priority--re-sign Aaron Judge.  There was no Plan B.  Well, they did re-sign Judge to the tune of nine years and $360 million, and Hal Steinbrenner made him the first Yankee captain since Derek Jeter.  They also knew they needed another starting pitcher, so they went out and got the best one available in Carlos Rodon.  He'll start the season on the injured list.  As will so many other Yankees who were expected to be key contributors.  But I'll take that over last year, when everybody got hurt in July and August.

They do have some issues that need to be addressed.  Aaron Hicks still on the roster, and they still have three starting infielders for two spots.  I'm not sold on Clay Holmes as a championship closer, either.  Although, I'd suspect the bullpen will get sorted out well before the trade deadline.  I'm also curious to see what kind of haul they can get for Gleyber Torres, the only tradeable piece in that Torres-LeMahieu-Donaldson triumvirate.  Also, will rookie Anthony Volpe not only make the team but be the Opening Day shortstop?
Projected Lineup: DJ LeMahieu-2B, Aaron Judge-RF, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Josh Donaldson-3B, Oswaldo Cabrera-LF, Jose Trevino-C, Anthony Volpe-SS, Aaron Hicks-CF
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Domingo German, Clarke Schmidt (Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas injured)
Closer: Clay Holmes
Projected Record: 94-68

2. Toronto Blue Jays: Toronto can really hit.  Everybody knows that!  How far this team goes generally depends on its pitching staff, though.  When the Blue Jays have good pitching to go along with their ridiculous lineup, they're in pretty good shape.  When they don't, the playoffs aren't just out of the question.  And their already-good pitching staff got even better with the addition of Chris Bassitt from the Mets, who'll slide into the No. 4 spot in the rotation and move Kevin Gausman back to a very good No. 5.

With that solid rotation backing up their strong lineup, there's no reason to think the Blue Jays aren't capable of following up last season's playoff appearance with another one.  I can also see them finishing fourth.  The AL East is that strong.  And, the crazy thing is, even if they do finish fourth, they might still be a playoff team.  Because I don't think there are six teams in the American League better than the Blue Jays.  In the AL East, they're the second-best team on paper.  Although, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s sore knee that kept him out of the WBC gives him pain long-term, that could affect his production and change the narrative in this division.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-RF, Bo Bichette-SS, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-DH, Alejandro Kirk-C, Matt Chapman-3B, Brandon Belt-1B, Daulton Varsho-LF, Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Santiago Espinal-2B
Projected Rotation: Alek Manoah, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman
Closer: Jordan Romano
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card 1)

3. Tampa Bay Rays: We have Kevin Cash and the Tampa Bay Rays to thank for the shift, which gradually overtook the entire sport to the point where its removal is the highlight of this season's rule changes.  This is the Rays we're talking about, though, so you know they'll adjust.  And, knowing them, they'll find a loophole in the new rules that they'll successfully exploit.  And the result will be another season with a win total in the high-80s/low-90s, which will probably be good enough for a wild card berth.

Let's not forget, too, that the Rays' lineup is nearly as ridiculous as the ones being put out by the Yankees and Blue Jays.  Randy Arozarena had his coming out party in the 2020 postseason, then won Rookie of the Year in 2021.  But, the World Baseball Classic has been some of the best baseball he's ever played.  Arozarena is just one piece in that young core in Tampa Bay.  Isaac Paredes is playing alongside Arozarena with Team Mexico, and we all know how good Wander Franco is.  So, it's really a matter of whether the pitching can keep up with the offense this season instead of the other way around, which has often been the case in the past for Tampa Bay.
Projected Lineup: Yandy Diaz-1B, Randy Arozarena-LF, Wander Franco-SS, Manuel Margot-RF, Isaac Paredes-3B, Harold Ramirez-DH, Brandon Lowe-2B, Christian Bethancourt-C, Jose Siri-CF
Projected Rotation: Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Yonny Chirinos, Zach Eflin, Jeffrey Springs
Closer: Pete Fairbanks
Projected Record: 86-76

4. Boston Red Sox: Boston was the only team in the AL East that had a disappointing 2022 season.  You know that didn't sit well with Red Sox brass, so they were determined to make their mark in free agency.  However, since they had to save some money in order to re-sign Rafael Devers next year, they ended up losing both Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez.  The Red Sox and Dodgers essentially traded DHes, since they signed Justin Turner to replace Martinez, who's now with the Dodgers.  But their big signing was Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida, who'll man left field at Fenway.

Pitching health, particularly in the rotation, is this team's Achilles heel.  Especially with the amount of veteran starers the Red Sox rely on, they really are playing with fire, which has come back to bite them a few times in recent years.  If their starting pitchers do stay healthy, though, that's a different story.  Their bullpen is actually better than it's been over the past few seasons, and they finally figured out that you need an actual closer, so they brought in Kenley Jansen and his 391 career saves as a free agent.
Projected Lineup: Kike Hernandez-SS, Alex Verdugo-RF, Rafael Devers-3B, Justin Turner-DH, Adam Duvall-CF, Masataka Yoshida-LF, Triston Casas-1B, Christian Arroyo-2B, Reese McGuire-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 84-78

5. Baltimore Orioles: Last season, everything went right for the Orioles.  They called up all of the young guys who'll be their core group moving forward, and they all produced.  Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson were a huge reason why Baltimore was in the playoff mix until the very end in 2022.  Can they do it again this year?  That's the real question.  Although, there's no reason to believe they can't.

Even with the unbalanced schedule, the Orioles more than held their own in a division of heavyweights last year.  So, they should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new schedule.  And I don't think it would surprise anyone if the 2023 Orioles end up being this season's 2022 Mariners.  Of course, this time they won't be sneaking up on anybody.  And it'll require everything to go right again.  I'm not saying that can't or won't happen.  But, in this division, finishing last with an 81-81 record is entirely possible.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Adam Frazier-2B, Adley Rutschman-C, Anthony Santander-RF, Ryan Mountcastle-1B, Austin Hays-LF, Kyle Stowers-DH, Gunnar Henderson-3B, Jorge Mateo-SS
Projected Rotation: John Means, Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish
Closer: Felix Bautista
Projected Record: 81-81

New QB: Upgrade or Downgrade?

In very not-surprising NFL news, Aaron Rodgers has informed the Packers that he wants to be traded to the Jets.  Why?  I have no idea!  But that's what he decided during that personal retreat in a cave (or whatever it is he did).  And it also sets up the Jets to get their next future-Hall-of-Fame Packers quarterback in 2038, so congratulations to them!

This trade, obviously, makes the Jets significantly better.  It's like they finally figured out that if you want to be competitive, you need to have a good quarterback!  And getting a QB of Rodgers pedigree is obviously a massive upgrade for them.  This isn't like Russell Wilson to the Broncos or that quarterback retirement home the Colts have been running for the past few years.  Rodgers is actually still good!

A Rodgers-Packers divorce this offseason seemed inevitable.  He hasn't been happy there for the past couple years.  But, the Packers also find themselves in a very unique position now.  They're looking for a quarterback for the first time in three decades.  And whoever they end up getting as their starter won't be Aaron Rodgers.  Can he keep the line moving and give them a third straight Hall of Fame QB?  Possibly.  But it's more likely that the Jets will have a better quarterback in 2023 than the Packers.

The Jets and Packers won't be the only teams with new quarterbacks this season.  Whether it's because of retirement (Tampa Bay), a surplus (San Francisco), a free agent leaving (Las Vegas), simply not really having a starter in the first place (New Orleans) or another reason, the quarterback merry-go-round has definitely been activated.  And some teams will be better off because of the move they made at QB.  While others will not.

Jets: Upgrade-Let's start with the most obvious upgrade.  The Jets used three different starting quarterbacks last season, and I don't even know how many they've had since that season they had Brett Favre in 2008.  Rodgers is better than all of them.  AND the Jets have been making it a point to sign/trade for all of the wide receivers he asked them to.  So, he'll be plenty comfortable in New York.  And, hey, maybe Rodgers will make them competitive!

Saints: Upgrade-It's been three seasons since Drew Brees retired, and New Orleans has been looking for a quarterback ever since.  Now they get their first legit NFL starter since Brees in the person of Derek Carr, a proven veteran who led the Raiders to the playoffs and made the Pro Bowl last season.  Carr apparently talked to Brees before signing with New Orleans.  He needed a fresh start after all those years with the Raiders, and the Saints needed the QB piece in what's suddenly a very winnable division for everybody.  So, I like this move on both sides.

Raiders: Downgrade-Speaking of Derek Carr, his replacement in Las Vegas is Jimmy Garoppolo.  Maybe this is finally Jimmy G's chance after he was driven out of San Francisco for reasons I still don't quite understand.  I don't think he's a bad quarterback, but he isn't particulary exciting, either.  And Derek Carr's a tough act to follow.

Buccaneers: Downgrade-I'm actually thrilled for Baker Mayfield.  After the bum deals he got in Cleveland and Carolina, he gets the chance to be a starter again in Tampa.  Unfortunately, being the quarterback who replaces Tom Brady is a very tall order.  No matter how good (or bad) Mayfield does, he'll be unfairly compared to Brady every time he does anything.  I don't even think I'm being fair to him by calling him a "downgrade," but isn't anybody a downgrade after Tom Brady?

Packers: Downgrade-None of us have any idea what the Packers are going to do.  They'll probably demand a king's ransom from the Jets, then possibly use some of that draft capital to trade for a veteran QB.  Regardless of what they do, though, this isn't 15 years ago, when they seamlessly transitioned from one Hall of Famer to another without skipping a beat.  For that reason alone, whoever Green Bay gets as its new quarterback (Carson Wentz?) doesn't even matter.  He'll be a downgrade regardless.

Panthers: Upgrade-Carolina traded for the No. 1 pick, presumably so they can take a quarterback.  The last time they picked No. 1 overall, it worked out well for them.  They took Cam Newton.  They're looking for similar magic this year.  Anything will be better than last season's Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold/P.J. Walker tag-team, though.  Not that it's the fault of any of the three quarterbacks.  They were a mess all the way around.  Fortunately, their new coach is Frank Reich, a former quarterback himself.  And having a coach who knows what's he's doing will help whoever ends up under center in Charlotte.

Commanders: Downgrade-Carson Wentz was fine last season.  He wasn't great, but he was serviceable.  But Washington decided to replace him anyway.  With Jacoby Brissett?!  How many teams need to sign that guy before they realize he's not an NFL starter?  He's a completely acceptable backup.  But that's what he is.  A backup.

Colts: ?-Indy's weird Fountain of Youth science experiment has spit out another--Matt Ryan, who, frankly, hasn't been good since the Falcons blew the Super Bowl.  Will they try again with somebody else or look for somebody in the draft?  Is there a third option?  All I know is that Indy currently does not have a starting quarterback (or a plan).  Which is why they get an incomplete right now.

Please note that, with the exception of the Panthers, I'm only talking about teams who've made moves involving veteran quarterbacks.  I doubt the moves are over, too.  Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan are among those who haven't signed anywhere yet.  Now, personally, I think they should be backups.  But a good backup is sometimes just as important as who your starter is.

Some teams beyond just Carolina will likely turn to the Draft in their search for a new quarterback.  Although, with the Draft, it's always buyer beware.  Because for every Peyton Manning, there's a Ryan Leaf.  The Panthers are sure hoping they get a Manning.  Because the Jaguars and Bengals sure seem pretty happy with the QBs they took No. 1 overall!

A Historic Flop

I'll be honest.  I don't know how to high jump.  I mean, I know how to do it.  I just could never get my body to bend that way, so I've never been physically able to do it!  And, because I can't arch my back, every time I tried to high jump in practice or competition, I ended up doing it the old-school, leg-first way.  So, I have the utmost respect for those who actually, you know, can high jump!

The high jump, of course, was changed forever because of a man named Dick Fosbury.  At the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City, he tried this unorthodox new method.  Instead of taking a short approach and running directly at the bar, he ran up from much further away and at an angle.  He then launched himself headfirst over the bar.  It was laughed off as a curiosity.  Until he went higher than everybody else and won the gold medal!

It didn't take too long for the Fosbury Flop to not just become commonplace, but the standard.  Four years later in Munich, 28 of the 40 men's high jumpers did it Fosbury's way (although, the gold medalist, Juri Tarmak of the Soviet Union still used the straddle technique).  And soon you wouldn't see anything else.  (I was watching some of the 1984 Olympics on YouTube and there was a Chinese guy using the old technique.  He might be the last world-class high jumper not to Fosbury Flop.)

To be fair, Fosbury wasn't the only one experimenting with a new way to high jump in the mid-60s.  Canadian Debbie Brill was developing her "Brill Bend" around the same time, and several other men were working on similar techniques then, too.  And, it should be noted, they were only able to even think about it because the high jump landing area had recently been changed to foam, making the head-first approach possible (it would've been unsafe to even try on the sawdust and sand that preceded the foam mats).

But Fosbury's the one who did it for all the world to see on the Olympic stage.  And he won the gold medal.  So, he gets the credit.  It will forever be known as the "Fosbury Flop."  And it didn't just revolutionize the event.  It revolutionized the entire sport.

He was already known for his unique jumping style long before Mexico City.  Fosbury developed the technique in high school, and it was generating headlines as early as 1964.  He was on the cover of Track & Field News in February 1968 and won the NCAA Championship that year.  So, track & field people already knew about it.  Once the world saw it, though, and saw how effective it was, high jumping would never be the same!

There are very few people who've ever left such a big legacy.  He literally changed the entire way an event is done!  There's only one track & field event where the most common technique is named after a person!  Dick Fosbury's name will always be a part of the sport!  In track & field, that's simply unheard of!

In fact, there are very few athletes in any sport who can make that claim.  Some gymnasts have had skills named after them, but I think the closest comparison is figure skating.  Most of the figure skating jumps are named after the skater who first performed them (Axel, Lutz, Salchow).  I'm sure there are some other examples in different sports, too.  But in track & field, there's one.  Dick Fosbury and the Fosbury Flop.

What's ironic is that while his place in track & field history is secured, that was never Fosbury's intent.  He simply wanted to be competitive.  He couldn't get the hang of it any of the other ways, so he figured he'd try something new.  And it worked!  His coaches hated it (since it went against everything they taught him) until they saw how much his results improved.  Eventually, they accepted that his way was better.

Although, while he may not have set out to make history, he sure accepted his place in it.  "I introduced the entire world to a different way to clear the bar," he once said to NBC.  "The crowd loved it.  The coaches hated it.  They didn't like some guy coming in with something that was different and beat them."  

Incredibly, he never held the world record.  His gold medal-winning jump of 2.24 meters in Mexico City set an American and Olympic record, but Fosbury failed three times at breaking the world record.  That record wouldn't fall until 1971, and Dwight Stones would break Fosbury's Olympic record five years later in Montreal.  (The current men's high jump world record of 2.45 meters, which is more than 8 feet, was set by Javier Sotomayor in 1993, while the current Olympic record is Charles Austin's 2.39-meter jump in 1996.)

That 1968 U.S. Olympic men's track & field team is legendary.  Some consider it the greatest in history.  That was the Olympics of Bob Beamon.  The Olympics of Tommie Smith & John Carlos.  The fourth of Al Oerter's four straight discus titles.  And the Olympics of Dick Fosbury.

Steve Prefontaine will always be Oregon's favorite son, but there's another local hero whose impact on the sport extends far greater.  For the past 55 years, "Dick Fosbury" has been a household name.  There's a statue of him at his alma mater, Oregon State, where he's, naturally, in mid-jump, with everything but the bottom of his legs already over the bar. 

Dick Fosbury, who died of lymphoma on Sunday, is one of the most influential athletes ever to compete in the sport of track & field.  He will never be forgotten.  His legacy will be felt every time a high jumper launches themself towards the bar head first.  All thanks to Dick Fosbury.

Men's Joe Bracket 2023

I think Purdue is the best team in the nation.  I also don't think Purdue will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  I can see that changing if they win the Big Ten Championship Game and Alabama loses in the SEC final.  Otherwise, I think Alabama holds on to its 1-seed and Purdue settles for a No. 2 as the fifth-ranked team overall.

That's really the only suspense heading into the release of the bracket.  Because the other No. 1 seeds seem to be locked in.  It's really a matter of whether UCLA, Houston or Kansas will be No. 1 overall.  I was thinking it would be Kansas until they lost the Big 12 Championship Game, and Houston is without one of its best players.  Thus, it's UCLA who gets the nod as the No. 1 overall seed!

As for Houston and Kansas, who's seeded higher overall actually matters a great deal since the higher seed gets the closer regional site between Kansas City and Louisville.  They're both somewhat close to Kansas, so it's not that big of a difference for them.  But you can bet Houston would rather go to Kansas City!  And they'll get to as the No. 2 overall seed.

Losing to Texas was actually a double whammy for Kansas.  Because I had to move them out of Des Moines, their preferred site, for the first weekend and put them in Denver instead.  The reason for this is because I need a 1-seed to play on Friday against the winner of that Wednesday First Four game, and having Kansas go to Denver was the only way to do that.

Meanwhile, North Carolina, the Jayhawks' opponent in last season's National Championship Game, will likely be on the outside looking in when the bracket is unveiled.  They won't be the only ones.  I've got nine Big Ten teams in the field, but that doesn't include either Michigan or Wisconsin.  I've also got eight teams from the SEC and seven from the Big 12, which has won the last two National Championships (and, if Houston wins the title, the last three National Champions will be Big 12 members next season).

If you think that sounds like a lot of bids from a small handful of leagues, you're absolutely right.  As the Power 6 conferences have gotten bigger, so have their amount of Tournament bids.  I've actually got only four at-large bids coming out of other leagues, and two of those are the Mountain West and American.  The other is Saint Mary's, which has been ranked all year and has been safely in the field for weeks.

Bubble teams should be resting somewhat easier, too.  Because there won't be any bid stealers.  Penn State has played its way in regardless of how the Big Ten Championship Game goes, and the VCU-Dayton loser won't get in.  Of course, bubble teams should still be nervous regardless.  That's why they're on the bubble in the first place.  And four of them will have to make the quick turnaround to play in Dayton.

So, with all that out of the way, let's move on to the bracket.  I've already given you a little preview and revealed my 1-seeds.  Now it's time for the whole thing.  So, away we go...

WEST (Las Vegas)
Sacramento: 1-UCLA (1) vs. 16-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 8-Arkansas vs. 9-West Virginia
Albany: 5-Xavier vs. 12-Drake, 4-Indiana vs. 13-Iona
Des Moines: 6-Creighton vs. 11-Arizona State/Pittsburgh, 3-Baylor vs. 14-Vermont
Greensboro: 7-Northwestern vs. 10-Utah State, 2-Duke vs. 15-UNC Asheville

EAST (New York)
Birmingham: 1-Alabama (4) vs. 16-Howard, 8-Memphis vs. 9-Illinois
Greensboro: 5-Saint Mary's vs. 12-Oral Roberts, 4-Kansas State vs. 13-Louisiana
Albany: 6-Miami vs. 11-Boise State, 3-Connecticut vs. 14-Colgate
Columbus: 7-Missouri vs. 10-USC, 2-Purdue vs. 15-Montana State

MIDWEST (Kansas City)
Birmingham: 1-Houston (2) vs. 16-FDU/Texas Southern, 8-Florida Atlantic vs. 9-Maryland
Orlando: 5-TCU vs. 12-VCU, 4-Tennessee vs. 13-Princeton
Denver: 6-San Diego State vs. 11-Rutgers, 3-Gonzaga vs. 14-Kennesaw State
Des Moines: 7-Michigan State vs. 10-Providence, 2-Texas vs. 15-Grand Canyon

SOUTH (Louisville)
Denver: 1-Kansas (3) vs. 16-Northern Kentucky/SE Missouri State, 8-Iowa vs. 9-Auburn
Orlando: 5-Texas A&M vs. 12-College of Charleston, 4-Virginia vs. 13-Kent State
Columbus: 6-Iowa State vs. 11-Clemson/Mississippi State, 3-Marquette vs. 14-Furman
Sacramento: 7-Kentucky vs. 10-Penn State, 2-Arizona vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara 

Bids By Conference: Big Ten (9), SEC (8), Big 12 (7), ACC (5), Big East (5), Pac-12 (4), Mountain West (3), American (2), WCC (2)
Final Four Matchups: West vs. East, Midwest vs. South

This year's Final Four is in Houston, so you can bet the Cougars will be the favorites should they get there.  And they are one of the handful of teams that has legitimate aspirations of winning the National title.  But this is March!  Anything can happen!  Just look at Saint Peter's last year!

Women's Joe Bracket 2023

The NCAA has made a few changes to the women's tournament this year that I don't quite understand.  Instead of having four regional sites, now there are only two.  Two regions will feed into each.  I'm not exactly sure how that helps grow the game, though.  I guess the idea is that it'll help attendance, and Elite Eight doubleheaders do sound kind of cool, but I'm not sure how different it'll be with a day session and night session in the Sweet 16 at both venues.  Because I doubt the locals will be buying tickets for both sessions, so one of them will just be supporters of the four teams.  With four sites, though, you've got four teams AND the locals.

Maybe I'm wrong and the double-regional thing will be a big success.  I just don't see it, though.  It's like when they tried having predetermined sites for a few years before dropping that and going back to the top 16 seeds hosting.  Attendance at the neutral sites was terrible.  It showed them how important it is to have the top teams playing at home in the first round and getting their fan bases out there.

This comes on the heels of last year's major change, which saw the field expanded to 68 and the selection show moved back to Sunday after the men.  Adding those four at-large teams definitely helped the quality of the tournament, since those last teams out are generally pretty good.  They're not beating the top teams, though.  Especially when there's an overwhelming favorite.

South Carolina is the defending National Champions and is 32-0 this season.  So, the Gamecocks will obviously be the No. 1 overall seed and play their regional in nearby Greenville.  Dawn Staley has the makings of a dynasty on her hands, and it would be very surprising to see anybody BUT South Carolina cutting down the nets in Dallas on April 2.

Speaking of cutting down the nets in Dallas, there's another huge change this year, and this one I think actually is a good thing.  The Championship Game will be on ABC.  It's being played in the afternoon, which I think is only because the decision to air it on broadcast TV was made after ABC had already made its schedule, but that should only be this year.  Next year, I'd expect it to be on ABC on Sunday night (or, Sunday evening at least).

Anyway, South Carolina is the only clear No. 1 seed, so I'm curious to see who the other three go to.  Virginia Tech, coming off an ACC Tournament title, is probably a safe bet.  And we'll probably see at least one Big Ten team, as well.  In fact, I think both Indiana and Iowa will be 1-seeds.  Iowa winning the Big Ten Tournament was what put them over Stanford for me.

Which puts Stanford as a 2, along with UConn, Utah and another Big Ten team--Maryland.  That's the other reason why I went with Iowa over Stanford.  The Big Ten has three top 2 seeds, which speaks to the quality of the league.  As for UConn, I think this may actually be the year when their ridiculous Final Four streak comes to an end.  They've uncharacteristically struggled this season, losing five games, including back-to-back losses.  But, would anyone be surprised if they do make another Final Four run?

And with that, let's take a look at my bracket.  Another thing I hate about the double-regional thing is that it's super confusing!  So, I'm referring to two of the regions by the city (Greenville and Seattle) and the other two as simply East and West.  That actually screws up the geographical balance, too, since you're gonna have 1-seeds that have to travel a much farther distance for their regional.  I'm assuming they'll do it by highest overall seed getting site preference, which would put South Carolina and Virginia Tech in Greenville, thus sending Indiana and Iowa to Seattle.

Keep in mind, too, that a lot of conference tournaments still aren't finished, so the teams from some of those one-bid leagues could very well change.  The biggest difference between the men's and women's tournaments is that, for the most part, the Power 5 conferences have their women's tournament a week prior to Selection Sunday, so we don't get those bid stealers.  Just the unexpected conference tournament winners in one-bid leagues.

GREENVILLE
Columbia: 16-Norfolk State/Tennessee Tech at 1-South Carolina (1), 8-Baylor vs. 9-Illinois
Los Angeles: 5-Lousiville vs. 12-Portland, 13-Sacramento State at 4-UCLA
Austin: 6-Washington State vs. 11-Purdue/St. John's, 14-Grand Canyon at 3-Texas
College Park: 7-Florida State vs. 10-Middle Tennessee, 15-Saint Louis at 2-Maryland

SEATTLE
Des Moines: 16-Iona at 1-Iowa (4), 8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Mississippi State
Chapel Hill: 5-Villanova vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast, 13-Towson at 4-North Carolina
Baton Rouge: 6-Michigan vs. 11-UNLV, 14-Gardner-Webb at 3-LSU
Stanford: 7-NC State vs. 10-South Dakota State, 15-Hawaii at 2-Stanford

EAST
Blacksburg: 16-FDU/Southern at 1-Virginia Tech (2), 8-Gonzaga vs. 9-USC
Columbus: 5-Tennessee vs. 12-Cleveland State, 13-James Madison at 4-Ohio State
Notre Dame: 6-Oklahoma vs. 11-Marquette/Alabama, 14-Belmont at 3-Notre Dame
Salt Lake City: 7-Creighton vs. 10-Arkansas, 15-SE Louisiana at 2-Utah

WEST
Bloomington: 16-Chattanooga at 1-Indiana (3), 8-Mississippi vs. 9-Miami
Ames: 5-Colorado vs. 12-Toledo, 13-East Carolina at 4-Iowa State
Durham: 6-Arizona vs. 11-Princeton, 14-Vermont at 3-Duke
Storrs: 7-South Florida vs. 10-Georgia, 15-Boston University at 2-Connecticut

Once they get to Dallas, I've got Greenville (South Carolina) facing Seattle (Iowa) and East (Virginia Tech) vs. West (Indiana).  As for who wins the National Championship, as I said earlier, it's South Carolina's tournament to lose.  And I highly doubt they will.  As for who joins them in the Final Four, your guess is as good as mine!

The WBC Is Finally Back

Three years ago, right around this time, we were getting ready for the 2021 World Baseball Classic qualifying tournaments to begin.  Then Rudy Gobert touched some microphones, got COVID and broke sports!  Now, after COVID and lockout delays, the World Baseball Classic finally returns, six years after the most recent edition.

Mike Trout watched the final of the 2017 WBC from the stands.  He saw the United States beat Puerto Rico 8-0 for its first WBC title and vowed to be on the field the next time.  Sure enough, he kept that promise, and Trout will anchor a very strong American team that looks to defend its title.  Trout's not the only one.  After seeing the U.S. win, suddenly everybody wanted to play!  Which means U.S. Manager Mark DeRosa will have some decisions to make once the tournament gets to Miami for the championship round.

It won't be easy, though.  I'd actually hesitate to call the U.S. the favorites.  Because the team from the Dominican Republic is STACKED!  Even without an injured Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the DR's lineup is arguably the deepest in the field, and they've got better pitching than the U.S., which is why I give them the slight edge.  And let's not forget about Japan, which won Olympic gold in 2021 and will have Shohei Ohtani doing his thing, as well as a bunch of other stars from Nippon Professional Baseball.

This is also the first WBC with 20 teams.  Which means we welcome Panama back for the first time since 2009, while the Czech Republic, Great Britain and Nicaragua will all make their debuts.  That's my favorite thing about this tournament.  You'll have teams from the United States and the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico stacked with Major League All-Stars.  And you'll have the Czech Republic, a team of amateurs who all have full-time non-baseball jobs (and starred in a very entertaining series of videos).

With the expanded field brings a new format.  There are still four groups, but they're now groups of five, and every team is guaranteed four games (which means you need at least four starting pitchers).  Then, the top two in each group advance to single-elimination quarterfinals.  So there's very little margin for error.  Because those quarterfinal games, especially the two in Miami, will feature some pretty good teams!

Another important thing to note is that they're playing under 2022 Major League rules.  No pitch clock, no shift bans, no bigger bases.  I don't think it'll have much of an impact on this tournament, but I'll be very interested to see how it effects the veterans' preparations for the season when they return to Spring Training.  Although, we will have the extra inning tiebreaker rule (which, in a tournament like this, makes complete sense), as well as a mercy rule, and, since it is still Spring Training, after all, pitch count limitations.

After six years of waiting, I'm just psyched that the WBC is finally back!  It's the only international baseball tournament that includes MLB players, and we've got some great matchups right off the bat (Julio Urias vs. Jose Quintana is the pitching matchup for Mexico-Colombia).  And, while I think the Dominican Republic, the United States and Japan are the three clear favorites, I know better than to expect any of them to win.  It's baseball in March after all!

Pool A: Pool A is the most wide-open of the four.  It's being played in Taiwan, and they're the second-ranked team in the world (behind only Japan), so they might be the on paper "favorite," but I actually don't even see them getting out of the first round.  The Netherlands made the semifinals in 2017 and, I think, is the strongest team in the group (they have four starting shortstops and Wladimir Balentin, who plays in Japan, was the best hitter in the 2017 tournament).  Cuba's also got a lot to prove after a few disappointing Classics in a row.  They have active Major Leaguers on the roster for the first time, though, so we'll see if that makes a difference.  I think it will.

Italy and Panama round out the group, and it would take an eternal optimist to think either has a chance.  The game between them will be important, though, since it'll likely be to avoid having to play in the qualifying tournament for the 2027 WBC.  (I'd also like to know why the top two European teams, both of which have been in every World Baseball Classic, were put in the same group.)

Pool B: Tokyo has been one of the Asian sites at all five World Baseball Classics, and it'll host two rounds this year before the top two teams head to Miami for the semifinals.  Those top two teams could easily be Japan and South Korea.  Japan is the only team to have made the semifinals in all four previous editions, and that seems unlikely to change here.  The Koreans should be the second quarterfinalist out of Pool B, and I think that'll be a great game between them and the Dutch to advance to Miami.

Australia isn't anywhere near as good as either Japan or South Korea, but is also significantly better than both China and the Czech Republic.  So, they shouldn't have to worry about qualifying for 2027.  I don't think China will, either.  Because, as great as it is the Czechs are here, even they know they have no chance.  Their best shot at winning a game might be their matchup with China, which has played in every WBC, but is only 2-10 all-time in the tournament.

Pool C: In Arizona, we have the three North American teams, Colombia and Great Britain.  The U.S. roster is so strong that MLB All-Stars will be sitting on the bench.  But I'm not completely sold on the American pitching, and I can easily see them losing to Mexico, Canada OR Colombia (they went to extra innings against Colombia in 2017).

Colombia is the wild card here, and I can see them beating Mexico for that second quarterfinal spot (Colombia-Mexico, BTW, is the first game).  Mexico is in a very similar boat as Cuba, though.  They've actually finished last in their pool at the last two WBCs and only avoided having to qualify this year because of the tournament expansion.  Canada has Freddie Freeman, but not much else (I'm not sure why Joey Votto opted not to play), but should easily take care of Great Britain to avoid having to re-qualify.

Pool D: Every tournament has a "Group of Death," and this is it.  The Dominican Republic is the odds-on favorite, Puerto Rico has made the last two finals, and Venezuela and Israel both made the second round in 2017.  Two of them won't advance in this year's tournament.  And, really, it could be any of the four.  OK, it'll likely be Israel and one of the others that doesn't advance.  Israel had that tremendous run six years ago, then followed it up by qualifying for the Olympics.  But finishing ahead of three teams of Major League All-Stars is a lot to ask.

I honestly keep going back and forth between Puerto Rico and Venezuela as the team that joins the DR out of this pool.  They're both really good, and if one of them was playing in Phoenix instead of Miami, I'd say both of them.  But, since I can only pick one, I'm leaning towards Venezuela.  Not only do I like their lineup better, I like their pitching better.  Rounding out the group is Nicaragua, which is completely overmatched against these opponents.  I'll be shocked if they win a game.

My quarterfinal matchups are Japan vs. Cuba, Netherlands vs. South Korea, United States vs. Venezuela and Dominican Republic vs. Colombia.  They crossover for the semifinals, so I've got the United States vs. Japan and the Dominican Republic vs. the Netherlands.  And, in the final, I have the Dominican Republic beating the United States for its second World Baseball Classic championship.  They're the favorites for a reason.  Because they're the best team.  The real question is if they can go undefeated again.  Just like they did 10 years ago.  Don't be surprised if they do.