My 2022-23 NFL Picks (Super Bowl LVII)

It's actually pretty crazy that it took 57 years for brothers to go against each other in a Super Bowl (although, they technically won't be going against each other since they both play offense).  Anyway, I'm willing to bet Mrs. Kelce has been enjoying the last two weeks much more than she'll enjoy the game.  Sure, one of her sons is going to win the Super Bowl for the second time.  But one of her sons is also going to lose the Super Bowl!

Of course, there are plenty of stories other than just the Kelce brothers, all of which have been told ad nauseum over the past two weeks.  It's Andy Reid vs. his former assistant, Nick Sirianni, and Reid vs. his former team.  He's the winningest coach in Eagles history and, if the Chiefs win, he'll tie Hank Stram for the most coaching wins (regular and postseason) in Kansas City history, too.  It would also be his second Super Bowl title in four years.

A lot has also been made, and rightfully so, about the fact that this is the first Super Bowl between two Black starting quarterbacks.  I'm willing to bet it won't be the last.  And, if the Eagles win, Jalen Hurts will become just the fourth Black quarterback to lift the Lombardi Trophy, joining Doug Williams, Russell Wilson and Mahomes.  Meanwhile, if the Chiefs win, Mahomes will be the first Black QB to win two Super Bowls.

We've also seen our streak of the home team winning come to an end!  After the Bucs and Rams had home field advantage and certainly benefitted from it, we're back to the Super Bowl being a true neutral site game, which really is fairer for both teams.  I know Kansas City would absolutely agree with that point after what happened to them in Tampa two years ago!

So, how will the game go?  I actually really like this matchup!  The Eagles were the best team in the NFL for most of the season, and they were dominant in their two playoff victories.  But the Chiefs are battle-tested, and I think the AFC was the stronger conference this season.  Philadelphia is favored, but not by much, and most experts agree that we've got a close one in store.

Chiefs (14-3) vs. Eagles (14-3): Kansas City-When the playoffs started, whenever someone asked me who I thought would win the Super Bowl, my answer was always "the AFC."  That's because I thought the three best teams entering the playoffs were Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati, so I thought whoever emerged should be the favorite.  And I still feel that way.  The Eagles were impressive all season and have been impressive in the playoffs, but I just think the Chiefs are too good.

Talking about Kansas City's offense is too easy.  They've got an All-World quarterback in Mahomes and their Kelce is a future Hall of Famer.  There are legitimate questions about Mahomes and how healthy that ankle is.  But he wasn't 100 percent in the AFC Championship Game, either, and he was able to adjust his game.  In fact, it might've made him more effective as a passer!  And, don't forget, they've had two weeks to figure out a game plan based on whatever his mobility will be.  So, I think they'll be fine.

However, it's the Chiefs' defense that I want to talk about.  They don't get enough credit because of the headlines that the offense generates, but they're just as good.  Chris Jones and Fred Clark are absolute beasts!  That Chiefs defense came up big when it needed to against Cincinnati, and it could be a key again in the Super Bowl.  Because I think the Chiefs' offense against the Eagles' defense could be a wash.

Philadelphia's defense, of course, has been the story of the postseason so far.  They held the Giants and 49ers to just a touchdown each, and that defensive unit is so deep, they don't lose much when they take the starters out.  But the Chiefs also have a significantly better offense than either the Giants or 49ers.  And a hobbled Mahomes is still infinitely better than San Francisco's fourth-string quarterback.

I must admit, seeing them put up 31 points on the 49ers' No. 1-ranked defense in the NFC Championship Game was mighty impressive.  It wasn't the first time they've done that this season, either.  Which again puts the onus on the Kansas City defense.  Stopping that Eagles offense will be the key.  If they can't do that, we could see the same type of blowout we saw when Kansas City played Tampa Bay.

For some reason, though, I just don't think that's going to happen.  I see a close game where both quarterbacks shine.  And both defenses get a chance to shine.  There'll be big plays.  But there'll be big plays by both teams.  It's really just a matter of who makes the last big play.  Because this could very easily be a back-and-forth game that comes down to who has the ball last.  And, should that happen, we could very well have our MVP determined on the final drive again.

That's where we'll really see either Mahomes or Hurts shine.  Mahomes has done it plenty of times before, including Super Bowl LIV, when the Chiefs scored on three straight fourth-quarter drives to beat San Francisco.  Hurts has had it easy so far in the playoffs this year, so he hasn't had one of those high-pressure fourth-quarter drives.  So, I've gotta give the advantage to Kansas City there, too.  You know Mahomes can do it.  With Hurts, you're not sure.

Then there's the coaches.  Twenty years ago, when John Gruden faced his old team in the Super Bowl, Tampa Bay completely dominated Oakland.  Andy Reid hasn't coached the Eagles in a decade, so this situation isn't remotely close to the same as that one.  But he does know Nick Sirianni.  And that could be the difference.  Who will win?  The teacher or the student.  Can Andy Reid, who never did win the Super Bowl in Philadelphia, win one over the Eagles?

Kansas City began its 2022 season with a win at State Farm Stadium.  And the Chiefs will end their season the same way in the same place.  The team wearing white wins the Super Bowl again!  (Fun fact: this is the first time the Chiefs are wearing white in the Super Bowl since Super Bowl I.)

Conference Championships: 2-0
Playoffs: 8-2
Overall: 174-107-2