My 2022 NFL Picks (Week 1)

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the 2022 NFL season!  And, more importantly, welcome to Year 12 of my weekly NFL picks!  For those of you who are new (or just need a refresher), there are two important things about my weekly picks you need to know: 1. I'm picking straight winners.  I don't pick against the spread or care what it is.  The standings only count who actually wins the game, not how they do against the spread.  2. I'll make a pick for the Thursday night game, but the full slate of picks generally won't be revealed until the weekend.

There are two exceptions to the Thursday night rule.  The first is Thanksgiving, for reasons that should be obvious.  The second is Week 1.  The NFL has made such a big deal about the Kickoff game hosted by the defending Super Bowl champion that it's one of the most significant games on the schedule.  It also wouldn't feel right to let the season start without picking the actual first game of the year.  So, with that, here we go...

Bills at Rams: Rams-The season begins with a matchup that many people feel may also be the one that ends it.  It's also crazy how the Rams will be the home team in three straight games that are the only one on the schedule (NFC Championship, Super Bowl, Kickoff).  You can't fault the NFL for going with this matchup.  It just sucks that one of them will start the season 0-1.  I think that team will be the Bills.  I just don't see the Rams losing the night their championship banner is raised.

Saints at Falcons: New Orleans-It wasn't too long ago that the Saints were a legit playoff contender and a lock to win double-digit games every year.  That wasn't the case last season, as they were getting used to not having Drew Brees.  Things will be better this year.  The Falcons, meanwhile, are in full-on rebuild.  Which is why I'm going with New Orleans.

49ers at Bears: San Francisco-Will Jimmy Garoppolo coming back be a good thing or a bad thing for the 49ers?  I don't think they were expecting to have him, but they're also probably a better team with him.  They're better than Chicago regardless, so I would've been picking San Francisco in this game with or without Garoppolo.

Steelers at Bengals: Cincinnati-I'm very curious to see how this season will go in Cincinnati.  The Bengals aren't sneaking up on anybody anymore.  In fact, they've become the hunted.  I'm curious about the Steelers, too.  It's been a long time since they had somebody other than Ben Roethlisberger under center.  How will they respond to Mitch Trubisky?  Perhaps the better question is how will Trubisky respond to finally getting out of Chicago?  We'll start to get some answers about both teams.

Eagles at Lions: Philadelphia-After last season's playoff berth, I'm really high on the Eagles this year.  I'm not entirely sure why, but I really like them.  Starting the season in Detroit is certainly a nice way to feel good about yourselves, too.  The Rams obviously got the better of the Jared Goff-Matthew Stafford swap.  Goff enters Year 2 in Detroit no closer to a ring than he was in Year 1.

Patriots at Dolphins: Miami-Even when Brady was in New England, the Dolphins were always the one team that gave the Patriots trouble.  Especially in Miami.  Now that the teams are much more evenly matched, that's especially true.  Is New England slightly better?  Probably.  But not better enough for that alone to make a difference.  Miami wins this one.

Ravens at Jets: Baltimore-Congratulations to the Jets on going undefeated in the preseason!  Too bad that doesn't matter for anything!  And they'll get a reality check from the Ravens.  Baltimore missed the playoffs last season because of a terrible December.  But let's not forget how good they were in the first half of 2021.  They get off to another good start.

Jaguars at Commanders: Washington-A new era begins in our nation's capital, as the Commanders play their first regular season game.  There are worse opponents for a team looking to start fresh than the Jaguars.  Jacksonville should be much better now that Urban Meyer and all the dysfunction that came with him are far in the rearview mirror.  They'll be much more competitive in games this season.  Unfortunately, I don't see it translating to a win here, though.

Browns at Panthers: Carolina-Can I just say how badly I want Baker Mayfield to crush his former team in this game?  I'm talking like 38-3 crushing.  The Browns did him incredibly dirty, so it's kinda fitting that he'll get the chance to take it to them in the opener.  And who'll be Cleveland's starter with their fine upstanding citizen of a quarterback suspended?  Why, Jacoby Brissett of course!  An obvious upgrade over Mayfield!

Colts at Texans: Indianapolis-Matt Ryan's second act begins in Houston.  Is he the missing piece for the Colts?  And how will being freed from the DeShaun Watson circus impact the Texans?  Don't get me wrong.  Houston's still one of the worst teams in the NFL.  They just won't be as bad this season.  Enough to beat the Colts, though?  That I'm not so sure.

Giants at Titans: Tennessee-While they haven't had the playoff success, so what they've done in the regular season has gotten a little overshadowed, the Titans have been one of the better teams in the league over the past few years.  And there's no reason to believe this season will be any different.  Just give the ball to Derrick Henry and let him run.  It's simple, really.

Packers at Vikings: Green Bay-This is FOX's national game, so it's the first game Kevin Burkhart and Greg Olsen will call as the network's No. 1 crew.  They'd better get used to seeing the Green Bay Packers.  Because the NFL and FOX love putting them in doubleheader late games!  This one should be your typical Packers-Vikings game.  Somewhat close, but not really, then Green Bay ends up getting a late score to win.

Chiefs at Cardinals: Arizona-Another interconference matchup where saying it could be a Super Bowl preview isn't too big of a stretch.  I think the Cardinals are slightly better than they were last season, while the Chiefs might be slightly worse.  Which isn't to say Kansas City isn't still one of the absolute elite teams in the NFL.  I think it's enough to make a difference, though.  Especially against a Cardinals team that plays well at home.

Raiders at Chargers: Chargers-Remember last season's finale, when the Raiders were content to settle for a tie so that they could both make the playoffs, only to kick a field goal at the end and knock the Chargers out?  Well, someone in the NFL schedule-maker's office certainly does!  And that person has a sick sense of humor!  The stakes aren't nearly as high in Week 1, but knowing how tight the AFC West figures to be, this is actually a pretty big game for both of them.  And, dare I say it could impact their playoff chances?

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Dallas-As I said the other day, I'm not jumping on this "Tampa Bay is the best team" bandwagon.  I also seem to have more faith in the Dallas Cowboys than some others, but I think this is their chance to send an early message.  Take the Cowboys lightly at your own risk.  This should be a fun, entertaining, back-and-forth game where the team that has the ball last wins.  That team will be Dallas.

Broncos at Seahawks: Denver-Joe and Troy's Monday night debut takes them to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks find themselves in the odd position of being in rebuilding mode.  It'll also be super weird for the 12th Man to see Russell Wilson playing for the opponent.  Especially in Week 1.  Russell's return to Seattle will be a happy one for him.  Not so much for the Seahawks.