College Superconferences

In the week since UCLA and USC upended the college sports scene as we know it, there's been a lot of speculation about what's next and who's headed where.  There have been rumors about the Big 12 raiding what's left of the Pac-12, the SEC targeting ACC schools, the ACC and Pac-12 entering into some sort of merger to protect both of their media rights, and, of course, all the questions regarding Notre Dame, which is really the biggest piece to the entire puzzle.  What Notre Dame decides to do could be the key to everything.

Regardless of what happens with Notre Dame, it seems likely that the movement isn't over.  The Big Ten and SEC aren't gonna stop.  Not if they want to outdo each other.  So, it's really a matter of which of the other three conferences (ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) is able to outdistance the others to be No. 3.  The ACC would appear to be the clubhouse leader for that spot, but then what happens to the Big 12 and Pac-12?

Unfortunately, it looks like the Power 5 will turn into a Power 4.  I simply don't see how the other three conferences survive this round of realignment intact and relevant.  They'll likely still exist in some form, but either the Pac-12 or Big 12 will be a shell of its former self.

Not surprisingly, this is all being driven by TV money.  FOX not-so-subtly nudged the Big Ten and the two LA schools together, and it was ESPN's "suggestion" that Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC.  Which is why nobody in their right mind thinks this is over.  Rumor has it they both want to go to 20, and I've even heard that they may even try to get to 24 (which is completely absurd!).

Assuming 24 is the target number, that makes two of the remaining three Power 5 conferences vulnerable.  Once BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston officially join the Big 12, there will be 69 teams in the Power 5 conferences, including Notre Dame.  Three 24-team superconferences would be 72 schools.  So, at a minimum, three teams would need to added in addition to the existing ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 members. 

And, frankly, I have no idea who's left to fill those three spots!  You'd have to think Boise State, but who else!?  San Diego State?  Memphis?  UNLV (for the sole purpose of playing in Las Vegas)?  Maybe Colorado State or South Florida?  There are plenty of American/Mountain West teams who'd want in, but wanting in and being a fit are completely different things!

I also wondered how 24-team conferences would even work for football scheduling.  Then I realized it would actually be pretty easy.  You could do a nine-game schedule where everybody has two permanent opponents and rotates the others in three groups of seven that they'd either play home-and-home before changing opponents or do it like MLB used to with interleague play and have it be a three-year cycle.  Either way, you'd visit every other campus at least once every six years.

Although, while that's the best (and only) way to preserve your rivalries, it would also inevitably lead to jockeying for easier permanent opponents and leave some teams very unhappy that they'll no longer have an annual matchup with a particular foe.  We're already seeing that with the SEC as they try to figure out the division-less schedule with Texas and Oklahoma in it.  Just imagine how much worse it'll be when you go from playing someone every year to every three!

Say, for example, the SEC is one of the 24-team conferences.  Florida State is one of the teams that's been mentioned as a potential SEC target.  If they were to join, they'd presumably be one of Florida's permanent opponents.  Obviously, so would Georgia.  Which means Tennessee wouldn't be.  That probably wouldn't go over too well in Knoxville.  (Although, having Vanderbilt as a permanent rival would likely soften the blow a little.)

Now let's pick a random Big Ten team.  How about Michigan?  Let's assume their permanent rivals are Ohio State (sorry...THE Ohio State) and Michigan State.  I'm sure Rutgers would be thrilled they no longer have their annual 35-point loss to the Wolverines, but Penn State's reaction to not playing Michigan every year would almost certainly be very different.

For basketball, meanwhile, it would be a logistical nightmare!  Even with a 20-game conference schedule, it would be impossible to play everybody in the regular season every year!  And what about conference tournaments?  Because you know there's no way the schools would vote for any conference tournament format that doesn't include every team!  So, they'd have to figure out a 24-team tournament format, which could take up to a full week to play!

Of course, none of these issues will stop the SEC or the Big Ten, especially if 24 teams is the ultimate goal.  But, again, who do you add?  It's obvious that geography is no longer a consideration, which is what makes the next part so intriguing. 

Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are reportedly in discussions with the Big 12 (the irony of Colorado going back to the Big 12 isn't lost on me, either).  That's assuming the Big 12 doesn't get poached by the Big Ten first!  (They've already been after Kansas, so would that surprise anyone?)  Oregon and Washington are the biggest fish left in the Pac-12...but Oregon's governor is insistent that any conference that adds Oregon must also take Oregon State.  I'm also really confused why no one has mentioned Stanford!  This is the most prestigious academic school on the West Coast.  That's good at everything!  And is located in San Francisco!  Seriously, is that not exactly what the Big Ten would be looking for?

Then there's Notre Dame, which has always been the white whale of college football.  Everyone knows that academically and geographically they belong in the Big Ten.  But they love their football independence.  How much longer will that independence make sense, though?  If they decide to join a conference, they'll have their choice of whatever one they want.  And the Big Ten is certainly the best fit (especially now that they have Notre Dame's rival, USC).

Part of Notre Dame's deal with the ACC, though, is that if they ever do join a conference in football, it has to be the ACC.  But that deal was made before the landscape changed.  And ACC schools like Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina have been mentioned as potential expansion targets for both the SEC and Big Ten.  So, is it realistic to expect Notre Dame to remain bound to a much different conference than the one it originally agreed to join?  Obviously not!  I'm sure a massive buyout would be involved, but I'm also sure Notre Dame would be able to cover it!

All of this is obviously being driven by football.  Which is why we know that UCLA, USC, Texas and Oklahoma won't be the only major programs switching leagues.  Not even close!  The superconferences are coming.  Whether we like it or not.