MLB Expansion Planning?

MLB's new playoff format this season and new schedule next season have gotten me thinking that something bigger might be at play.  After adding four teams in the 90s, it's been 25 years since the Diamondbacks and Rays began play.  And, while expanding beyond 30 teams isn't imminent, the way things will be set up moving forward sure makes it look like it's possible.  In fact, it would make going to 32 fairly easy.

Now, I'm not advocating for MLB expansion by any means!  While there are some markets that don't have MLB teams and would like one, Baseball hasn't really expressed much of a desire to add two more.  But, for the sake of this exercise, let's act like there is.  Because it'd be really tough to do the 32-team example with only 30 teams!

So where am I putting these expansion teams?  Well, the first location should be obvious.  Welcome back, Montreal Expos!  As for expansion team No. 2, I'm going with a city that everybody wants.  Assuming the A's don't move to Las Vegas first (which is a very realistic possibility), Las Vegas gets one anyway via expansion.

Montreal, obviously, would go to the National League.  Which means Las Vegas would go to the American League.  And, now that there's 16 teams in each league, I'm adding a fourth division, which is important for a couple reasons.  First, four divisions means four division winners, which means you don't have a wild card team with home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.  Second, four four-team divisions is necessary for the schedule I've devised.

Just like when they added the Centrals or when the Brewers switched leagues or, more recently, when the Astros switched leagues, the changes to the divisions wouldn't be too drastic.  There'd obviously have to be some moving, and some teams wouldn't be happy about their new division foes, but that's always the case with any realignment.  And the divisions I've come up with are the least disruptive possible.

The new divisions are the AL and NL South, which probably gives you at least a little bit of an idea who's getting put there.  In the NL, Braves, Marlins and Nationals are obvious.  The fourth team might surprise you, though.  It's not the Cardinals.  I didn't want to separate them and the Cubs.  So, instead, it's the Reds going to the NL South (even though Cincinnati isn't really "south"...but neither is Indianapolis!).

I have another reason for the seemingly odd fit of Cincinnati in the South.  All four of those cities are in the Eastern time zone, so it's less burdensome travel-wise, especially when you consider that the Rockies would obviously be the team moving from the NL West to the NL Central.  If I'd kept the Reds there, that division would have three time zones.  A division of Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies, meanwhile, only covers two (Central and Mountain).

What about Pittsburgh, you ask?  The Pirates have wanted back into the NL East pretty much ever since they were placed in the Central.  Now they finally get to.  They join the Mets, Phillies and Expos in the NL East.  (The NL West, obviously, would be Dodgers, Giants, Padres and Diamondbacks, the four teams in the Pacific time zone.)

In the American League, Tampa Bay is the outlier team.  The East (Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles) and West (Angels, A's, Mariners, Las Vegas) are fairly straightforward.  So is the Central, really (White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Guardians).  And Kansas City's close enough to the two Texas teams for it to make sense.  The Rays join those three and take the last spot in the AL South.  (And the distance from Tampa to Houston is roughly the same as Tampa to Baltimore.)

Next year's schedule drops the number of division series from six against each opponent to four against each opponent.  That's 16 total series against your division.  Or, looking at it a different way, you're reducing the number of series you play against one opponent from four to two.  Which frees up two series for you to play against Montreal/Las Vegas.

Teams will be playing 16 interleague series a year starting next season.  Having 16 teams in each league would make that really easy.  One against everybody, eight at home, eight away.  Then you flip it.  Of course, the only issue with that (and one I haven't been able to figure out how to resolve) is that you wouldn't have a home-and-home against your partner, which wouldn't sit well and likely wouldn't fly.  That issue aside, though, as you can see, it would otherwise be fairly easy to add two teams.

Although, I'll be the first to admit, the divisions I came up with only work because of where I put the new teams.  If MLB actually were to expand and go somewhere like Nashville, it could lead to more drastic adjustments (Arizona to the AL West and Nashville in the NL South?).  Likewise, if Oakland actually does move to Las Vegas or the Rays leave Tampa Bay, that would obviously change things, too.

But, assuming nothing changes and the 30 existing teams remain in their current home markets, it's easy to envision a scenario where MLB decides to expand and puts the new teams in Montreal and Las Vegas.  And if they were to do that, I can see a divisional alignment that's pretty close to the one I just outlined.

With all that being said, however, I sure hope we don't see MLB expansion and/or realignment anytime soon.  I wouldn't be surprised if it happens, though.  Because, with next year's schedule and playoff format, they've set themselves up to do it.