NHL Schedule Scenarios

As Seattle prepares to get Kraken on building its inaugural roster (I'm gonna make that joke a lot, so you'd better get used to it), the NHL has another pressing matter that should be settled by the expansion draft--next season's schedule.  More specifically, next season's divisional alignment and schedule formula.

Let's start with the divisional alignment.  As everyone knows, they had to temporarily realign the divisions last season because of the cross-border travel restrictions, resulting in the all-Canadian North Division.  Not surprisingly, some teams (especially the seven in Canada) really liked those divisions and want to keep them.  That seemed unlikely to begin with (there are only seven Canadian teams, so there would have to be an American team in that division regardless, which would defeat the whole purpose!).  And, now that the border is finally reopening, I'd say the chances of last season's temporary divisions becoming permanent is pretty close to zero.

So, it looks like we'll be going back to the 2019-20 divisions with one minor change--Arizona moving to the Central with Seattle taking the Coyotes' place in the Pacific.  That's been the plan ever since Seattle was awarded a franchise, and there's no reason to change it now.  It also allows the NHL to go back to having Eastern and Western Conferences after last season's mix-and-match playoffs that saw two teams ordinarily in the same division playing in the Cup Final.

The schedule, however, is something that they'll definitely need to figure out.  The current formula doesn't completely work because adding Seattle to it would give everybody 84 games.  And, since the NHL seems to prefer keeping it at 82 instead of playing those two extra games per team, some modifications are necessary.

They've proposed two different schedule formats for next season, one of which is far superior to the other.  Option 1 is basically the same schedule they currently play with two division games taken away to account for the home-and-home with Seattle.  Here's the breakdown: 2 vs. other conference (32 games), 3 vs. conference (24 games), 4 vs. 5 division teams (20 games), 3 vs. 2 division teams (6 games).  More significantly, the playoffs are conference-based under Option 1.

Option 2, meanwhile, is similar to this season's schedule in that it's division-based.  The conferences are essentially ignored, as each team would only play two games against each of the 24 opponents outside its division.  They also have six "rivalry games," which is somewhat ambiguous.  Here's how Option 2 breaks down: 2 vs. all teams outside division (48 games), 4 vs. division (24 games), 6 "rivalry games".  Option 2 would also keep the division-based playoff format intact.

I've got so many questions regarding Option 2.  Who are these "rivalry games" against?  Does ESPN (and/or TNT) get to decide what constitutes a "rivalry game?"  Would they be different every year?  If they're against division teams (I'm assuming Rangers-Islanders, Canadiens-Maple Leafs, etc. would count as "rivalry games"), are those in addition to the four matchups those teams would already play against each other?  (Also, why not just have them play everybody in their division five times, except for the one team they'd only play four?)

There are so many reasons why Option 1 is clearly better.  For one, the players loved the back-to-backs against the same opponent in the same city, and the NHL has indicated that would continue.  But, it would be impossible to do if they only visit an opponent for one game.  With Option 1, however, they'll have two games in one city against 15 different teams, which doesn't just make the back-to-backs doable, it makes creating the schedule as a whole much easier (a team could theoretically come to New York, stay for a week, play four or five games, and never have to change hotels). 

Is there a downside to Option 1?  Yes, but it's so minor that it's not even significant.  Playing a division rival only three times means one of you gets only one home game against the other.  But, again, not a big deal.  Especially since that's luck of the draw.  And I'd imagine they'll draw up a formula similar to the one they used to determine who got the extra home game during those years you played some of your division rivals five times.

Most importantly, though, Option 1 features the return of the conference-based playoffs!  This is something I've wanted for years!  And I don't think I'm the only one.  Because the division-based system may sound nice in theory, but is actually an incredibly flawed format.  And those flaws have been exposed repeatedly over the past few years.

How many times did the Capitals and Penguins have the two best records in the NHL, but, because they're both in the Metropolitan Division, end up playing in the second round of the playoffs?  Or, how about this year, when Carolina, Florida and Tampa Bay, who were all in the same division, had the third-, fourth- and eighth-highest point totals in the league, forcing the Panthers and Lightning to play in the first round?  And, of course, Colorado and Vegas tied for the best record in the league, but had to play each other in the second round because of the division-based format.

Upsets are always going to happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  That's part of the beauty of them.  But teams were reseeded in the conference-based format, ensuring the best teams didn't face each other until the later rounds.  Just as importantly, though, if the third- and fourth-best teams in the conference were in the same division, you wouldn't have one eliminating the other in the first round!  It also means that you can finish fifth in a strong division and still get the playoff seed you deserve, which has always been one of my biggest frustrations with the current format!

While I have no idea which format the NHL will ultimately choose, I'd be very surprised if they don't pick Option 1.  I'm not the only one who's frustrated by the current playoff system, especially since it's such an easy thing to fix.  Option 1 does just that, while also maintaining the league's pre-COVID schedule format as much as possible.

Also of note, the NHL is developing two versions of the 2021-22 schedule--one with an Olympic break, one without.  Here's hoping they use the one with an Olympic break in it!