Back In May

For the first time ever, the Big Three are all in the same side of the draw in a Grand Slam.  Djokovic and Federer would play in the quarters, so they'd need to beat the other, then Nadal just to reach the final.  That's a tall order at any tournament.  At the Rafa Invitational?  Damn near impossible!

Remember last year, when the tournament had to be rescheduled and was played in October, and how we all wondered how much of an impact it would have on Nadal's dominance of the event?  Yeah, the answer was none (kinda like how changing teams made no difference on Tom Brady getting to the Super Bowl)!  If anything, he was more dominant.  He didn't lose a set, allowed Djokovic to win just seven games in the final, and earned his annual French Open win.

That was Nadal's 20th career Grand Slam title, putting him one behind Federer's record.  (There are 60 combined Grand Slam titles in the top half of the draw--59 of them by the Big Three--one on the bottom half!)  So, it would be somewhat fitting for Nadal to tie that record here.  After all, two-thirds of his Grand Slam titles have been in Paris.  (For those of you who still don't understand why I don't like Nadal, [other than my being a Roger guy] that's why!  We get it!  You're good on clay!  Both Roger and Novak are more well-rounded players.)

(Side note: how are they doing ranking points?  Tournaments normally drop off after a year and are replaced by the result of the same tournament, but there'll be two French Opens in eight months, so how's that gonna work?  Will Nadal have both wins count until last year's comes off in October?)

It's not that I'm conceding the trophy to Nadal.  It's just that if I've learned anything over the past 17 years, it's that picking against him at Roland Garros is a fool's errand.  However, if there was ever a year where somebody else has an opportunity, this may be it.  Especially if they're lucky enough to be in the bottom half of the draw!

Dominic Thiem has that one Grand Slam trophy from the bottom half of the draw.  He won it at last year's US Open before heading to Paris and losing in the quarters.  He's been Nadal's final victim twice, though, and would have to be considered the favorite on the bottom half.  Or maybe Stefanos Tsitsipas, who took Djokovic to five in the semis last year, will break through and reach his first Grand Slam final.  I've gotta make the two of them the favorites over Daniil Medvedev, who's ranked No. 2 and made the final in Australia, but has never won a French Open match in his career!

They may also benefit from the fact that virtually no one will care about what's going on in the bottom half of the draw until the final.  The story of the entire tournament will be on the top half, with the Big Three on a collision course and Nadal chasing history.  Meanwhile, the guys on the bottom half can just go about their business and play some tennis.  Because one of them is gonna make the final no matter what.

It's not just on the men's side where the top half of the bracket is loaded, either.  The top half of the women's draw features No. 1 Ash Barty, who actually left Australia!  She hasn't been to Paris since winning the title in 2019.  Last year's champion, Iga Swiatek is also on the top half of the draw.  So is the woman she beat in the final--Sofia Kenin.  Kenin's first round opponent?  Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 champion.  And 2016 winner Garbine Muguruza is there, too.  So that's four of the last five women's champions (2018 winner Simona Halep withdrew) plus last year's finalist.  Yikes!

Unlike the men, the women still have plenty of stories on the bottom half of the draw.  Like Nadal, Serena Williams can tie the all-time record for Grand Slam titles here.  She hasn't won the French Open since 2015 and has been stuck on 23 since 2017, but a healthy Serena is always a threat.  Especially a healthy Serena who has a relatively easy draw.

Then there's Australian Open champ Naomi Osaka.  She made headlines earlier this week by saying she won't participate in any post-match news conferences.  Since those news conferences are a requirement, Osaka stands to be fined a significant amount, especially since she's made it very obvious she won't do them.  She's gotten some support for her stance, but it's also drawn a fair amount of criticism. 

Most other players are in agreement that nobody likes them, but understands that they're part of the job.  Osaka's also making it open season for anyone to write whatever they want, since she won't be there to set the record straight.  I also wonder how that's gonna play with the fans.  I'd imagine it'll be a mixed bag.  Plenty of support, plenty of people who don't agree, who now have ammunition to root against her.

I don't have an opinion on Osaka's stance one way or the other.  It's her choice and she's willing to pay whatever fine she receives.  And, let's not forget, she's one of the more outspoken players on the women's tour, so she already has her share of both supporters and critics because of that.  It didn't affect her game in New York or in Melbourne.  We'll see how much of an impact it has here.  Keep in mind that clay is her worst surface, too.

Fortunately, there will be enough going on that Naomi Osaka's press conference boycott shouldn't be a distraction.  It'll be a story after her first match and probably a day or two after that, but the media's attention will eventually shift to what's happening on the court.  Especially when the tournament figures to be wide open.

There have been five different champions and nine different finalists in the last five years, which goes to show how the French Open really is anybody's tournament on the women's side.  With how dominant she was on these same courts just a few months ago, though, I've gotta go with the defending champ Swiatek.  Her 2020 French Open title might've been her first, but it won't be her last.