The NHL & NBA Seasons

Now that they've successfully completed their seasons inside their bubbles, the NHL and NBA have moved on to their next big challenge--the 2020-21 season.  Under normal circumstances, the NHL would've started a few weeks ago and the NBA would be starting up right about now.  These, of course, aren't normal circumstances, and both leagues knew that next season would have to be delayed as soon as they committed to finishing their 2019-20 campaigns.  And figuring out when to start (and finish) next season isn't proving to be easy.

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman originally threw December 1 out there as a target date, which even he acknowledged was incredibly optimistic.  Now January 1 is looking more likely, although that isn't set in stone.  Whether that's in empty arenas in home cities or arenas with fans or bubbles remains to be seen, but early January does seem like a realistic target.

There are, of course, several logistical issues that they still must overcome.  The biggest one is the border, which remains closed.  We don't know when it's gonna reopen, and teams won't be able to go freely back and forth until it does.  That's why the Blue Jays played their "home" games in Buffalo and why all three Canadian MLS teams have had to play their "home" games in the US.

One solution to this problem that has been discussed is creating a Canadian division and having those seven teams play only each other, at least at the start.  That would probably work, although I don't think they need to create a separate "Canadian" division.  The border will eventually reopen sometime in 2021, at which point they'll be able to travel to the US and the American teams will be able to travel to Canada without having to quarantine.  So, they can simply put the all-Canadian matchups early in the season before they all move on to the rest of their schedules.

I think they've moved off this idea, but at one point, the idea of smaller bubbles involving 6-8 teams all playing each other at one site was floated around.  They could always go that route if the Canadian teams need to remain separated.  It would make sense to do them regionally, too.  You could maybe have the Bruins with the Flyers, Capitals and the three New York teams or the three California teams with Vegas, Arizona and Colorado.

Regardless, it looks like the NHL is committed to a full 82-game season, which they should be able to accomplish.  Teams have been told to book their arenas through the end of July, although I think the NHL would like to award the Stanley Cup by mid-July at the latest (their TV partner, NBC, will be a little busy in late July).

By taking the necessary and predictable step of cancelling the Winter Classic and All*Star Game, the NHL has plenty of room to play an 82-game season between New Year's Day and Mother's Day, followed by the traditional 16-team playoffs.  Teams are already expecting a number of back-to-backs next season (perhaps multiple back-to-backs in a week), and the bye weeks will almost certainly be eliminated.

The later they start, however, the less likely it is they'll be able to play 82 games and finish by mid-July (which is important, since they want to start the 2021-22 schedule on time).  But they may be willing to wait and play a shorter season if it means they can have fans in the stands.  The NHL is a gate-driven league.  Teams rely on attendance for revenue much more than teams in the other three major leagues.  So, the owners might not think it's worth it to play in empty arenas.

Meanwhile, I don't see any possible way for the NBA to play a complete 82-game season in 2021.  They also originally targeted December 1 (which seemed incredibly optimistic when they finished in mid-October), although starting on Christmas seemed more likely.  Now even Christmas seems optimistic.  Commissioner Adam Silver is now saying Martin Luther King Day, which means mid-January.

For the NBA, the biggest issue is the time crunch.  They've indicated that they want to go back to their normal timeline for the playoffs, which would put the NBA Finals starting in mid-June.  For that to happen, the regular season would need to end in mid-April.  That's just under 90 days, even less if they still want to have the All*Star Game (which would be stupid)!  This isn't baseball!  You can't play 82 games in 90 days, then potentially 28 more over two months of playoffs!

That's obviously not set in stone.  Nothing is.  But the NBA is up against the clock.  They know they can't go too deep into the summer.  For a number of reasons.

While they haven't said anything Olympics, all indications are that the NBA won't take an Olympic break.  That's their prerogative.  But they need to make a decision one way or the other sooner rather than later.  A number of countries are relying on having NBA players and/or coaches available to them for Olympic qualifying and the Olympics themselves.  If that won't be the case, they need to be able to plan accordingly.

Beyond that, though, I think the powers that be at the NBA know it would be idiotic to go against the Olympics.  Not only because of player availability, but because they know that NBA games--even playoff games--will get crushed in the ratings by the Olympics.  It would also generate a lot of resentment from FIBA and the IOC.  None of which is a winning proposal for the NBA.

Either way, it looks like there will be significantly fewer NBA players in Tokyo than at past Olympics.  If they don't take a break (and even if they do), the only players available will be ones whose teams are already out.  Even if the season is done, though, will they really want to go through a whole NBA season, then fly to Japan a few weeks later?

No matter what they end up doing, the NBA knows their schedule will be heavily condensed in 2021.  An interesting solution that's being considered is playing back-to-back games against the same team in the same arena.  That would certainly help with things like travel, and it makes me wonder if they would consider bringing multiple teams to the same city and recreating their bubble environment to some extent.

My best guess is that the NBA season will be somewhere in the 50-60 game range.  They want to finish at their normal time so that they're back on schedule in 2021-22 (which they won't be able to do if they go later into the summer).  They also want to have fans in the arenas, which may not happen at the start, but will gradually increase as the season goes on.  Which is part of the reason why they want to wait.  But they can't wait too long if they want to play as close to 82 games as possible.