Back in March and April, I thought there was no way this would be possible. How were they gonna hold a major international sporting event in New York at the end of the summer? It seemed crazy that they were even considering trying. Yet here we are, and the US Open isn't just being held. It's being on time at its usual site. It really is remarkable.
In fact, the US Open is the first major event since this all started that didn't have to be rescheduled and/or moved. It wasn't cancelled or postponed like so many other events that were suddenly wiped off the calendar this spring and summer. So, in a way, the 2020 US Open is what we all needed. It feels "normal," even though it's not. But it is a sign that we will be back to normal eventually.
That's not to say this will be a typical US Open. Not even close! Ordinarily, the players feed off the energy of the fans. This year the fans won't be there. Ordinarily, it's the end of a grueling summer slog. This year, the players have had unplanned months-long breaks, with only a handful of tune-up tournaments having taken place since the restart (including the Cincinnati event that was moved to the National Tennis Center for travel/practicality reasons).
The lack of fans is definitely going to be the most noticeable difference, especially since Arthur Ashe Stadium is cavernous. But it was either no fans or no US Open, so the choice was an easy one. And I think the fact that there won't be any will actually help the lower-ranked players. They're used to playing in front of smaller crowds and finding ways to pump themselves up. Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic, meanwhile, haven't played in front of empty seats in years. Those massive crowds include their legions of fans. So this will definitely be an environment that's more foreign to them.
There was plenty of pre-tournament concern about the quality of the fields. A number of top players, women's No. 1 Ashleigh Barty chief among them, have opted out because of COVID concerns, and several have had to withdraw due to positive tests. Still others will miss the tournament due to injury, including Roger Federer and defending women's champion Bianca Andreescu.
With Rafa Nadal deciding to stay in Europe (where he can prepare for the Rafa Invitational, aka the French Open), that means this will be the first US Open since 1971 not to feature either defending champion. And with Federer missing the rest of the year after knee surgery, this is the first Grand Slam tournament in the entirety of the 2000s without either one in the draw. It also means that Rafa can't tie Roger's record here. (Although, Djokovic can pull one closer to both.)
However, instead of being concerned about who's not here and worrying that the fields are watered-down, this can be viewed as an incredible opportunity. Some of the younger players have never had a better chance for their Grand Slam breakthrough. And, whether the high-ranked, big-name players are there or not, you've still gotta win seven matches in two weeks to win a Grand Slam title, which is difficult no matter how you slice it. And the title won't come with an asterisk. The winners will still be the 2020 US Open champions.
This US Open could end up being historic, too. Serena Williams has 23 career Grand Slam titles, one shy of tying Margaret Court's all-time record. Serena's been "stuck" on 23 since the 2017 Australian Open, and she's lost the last two finals here. But any time she enters a Grand Slam healthy, she has to be considered one of the favorites, and that's certainly the case here. (Although, she did suffer a surprise loss to Maria Sakkari in the third round of the "Cincinnati" tune-up tournament.)
Serena faces plenty of competition, though. Naomi Osaka, the 2018 champion, made the final in "Cincinnati," but had to withdraw due to injury, giving the title to Vika Azarenka. She's still not quite the same player she was in the early 2010s, when she won back-to-back Australian Opens and made consecutive US Open finals. But I wouldn't count her out either.
And let's not forget the other American women, starting with Australian Open champ Sofia Kenin. It seems like a lifetime ago when the world was still normal back in January and Kenin won her first Grand Slam title. But she carried that momentum throughout the early spring and into the stoppage, and she enters the US Open as the top American and No. 2 seed.
Then there's the 2017 finalists, Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys. They've both got a great shot, too. As do young, up-and-coming Americans Coco Gauff and Taylor Townsend. (Last year Gauff's match against Osaka was one of the highlights of the tournament, and they could potentially meet again in the third round this year.)
Among the non-Americans, look out for the Czechs. Karolina Pliskova is the No. 1 seed, and she's still looking for that first Grand Slam title, so the 2016 runner-up is just as motivated as ever. I like two-time Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, too. Then there's the Brit Jo Konta, 2016 champ Angelique Kerber and Australian Open finalist Garbine Muguruza. So, yeah, there's no worry about the women's tournament not being competitive.
On the men's side, Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite to win his fourth US Open and 18th career Grand Slam title. In fact, he's undefeated on the year. Yes, that included a three-month hiatus, but undefeated on the year is undefeated on the year. And without his two main rivals in the field, it would be a surprise to see anyone but the Djoker hoist the trophy on September 13.
However, like I said before, this is a golden opportunity for everybody else. There's never been a better chance for a career-defining Grand Slam breakthrough. And there are plenty of guys who've been knocking on the door, only for the Big Three to slam it in their faces. Players like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev and Dennis Shapovalov. Daniil Medvedev made the final last year and probably should've beaten Nadal. Milos Raonic has been a Wimbledon finalist and took a set off Djokovic in the "Cincinnati" final. I'd look out for both of them, as well.
While the state of the American men's game isn't anywhere near as strong as it is with the women, there are still some American men worth keeping an eye on. Reilly Opelka had a great run last week, so we'll see if he can carry it over. John Isner is still the top American man, but unfortunately drew Djokovic as a potential round-of-16 matchup. Then there's Sam Querrey, who may have to deal with Raonic. Also in that section of the draw are two former champions on their way back from injury, Marin Cilic and Andy Murray. It's so great to have Murray back after we all thought his career was over.
Ultimately, though, this is Djokovic's tournament to lose. It likely would've been anyway, but especially when you consider all of the other factors working in his favor, anyone other than Djokovic winning the men's title truly would be shocking. (For the record, I'm saying he beats Raonic in the final.) As for the women, I'm not going with Serena. Instead, I'll say Karolina Pliskova finally wins her maiden Grand Slam title, defeating Madison Keys in the final.
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