As the Australian Open starts, that's the most pressing question. When Federer won his sixth title here two years ago, it was his 20th career Grand Slam trophy. Since then, Nadal has won three to bring his career total to 19. So, if Nadal wins here, he'll tie Roger for the most men's Grand Slam titles in history, which is pretty remarkable. Even if he doesn't, you know he's going to win the French Open, so he'll tie him in Paris unless Roger gets No. 21 here.
They're not the only ones thinking about a Grand Slam record, either. Serena Williams won here while pregnant three years ago for her 23rd career Grand Slam title, one shy of tying Margaret Court for the most all-time. She hasn't won a Grand Slam since becoming a mom, though, so she still sits at 23. However, Serena won a warm up tournament, which has some people thinking she might finally tie the record.
Those are the major on-court headlines heading into the first Grand Slam tournament of the 2020s. The entire event takes a back seat, though, to the devastating wildfires that have swept through the host country. Despite concerns about the air quality, the tournament began on schedule. But it'll be on everyone's minds throughout the next two weeks.
We actually saw the impact of the wildfires during qualifying, when a player had to retire because she couldn't breathe in the smoke-filled air. So, yeah, the concerns are real. Fortunately, the Australian Open is the only Grand Slam that has retractable roofs on three different courts. They'll need to use the uncovered outer courts at the start of the tournament, but once they reach the point when they only need the three main courts, you play all remaining singles matches with the roof closed. It might not be the most popular solution, but it's probably the safest. (Although, as I type this the roofs are closed because of rain, which is good on two fronts, because that's the best possible way to fight the wildfires.)
The big tennis story of the next two weeks, though, will be about the Big Three. Specifically Nole and Rafa's assault on Roger's record. Federer seems resigned to the fact that it's a matter of when they'll catch him (not if). But, he actually has a decent chance to hold them off little longer. Federer has won this thing six times, including two of the last three years. And, perhaps just as significantly, he comes into the Australian Open fresh. Djokovic and Nadal, meanwhile, both played a lot of matches at the ATP Cup, a new Davis Cup-style team competition where Serbia (Djokovic) beat Spain (Nadal) in the final. How much did that take out of them?
Another thing that helps Federer is the temperature. Melbourne's mid-summer heat is notorious, and it usually causes all sorts of problems, especially for those players who have long matches. But, the temperatures are supposed to be significantly cooler during the first week, which will help everybody.
Ultimately, it's not going to be the temperature or the roof that makes the difference. It's going to be who's most on his game when the tournament hits crunch time. And, of course, the matchups always come into play, too.
Either Federer or Djokovic has won 13 of the last 15 Australian Open titles. So, it would make sense to look at them as the two favorites. Unfortunately, the draw has them set to square off in the semifinals. Which actually helps Nadal, who's only won the Australian Open once. Nadal appears more vulnerable to an upset, though, since he has Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and Nick Kyrgios all in his half of the draw.
Djokovic and Nadal are the two betting favorites, but the experts are also really high on Medvedev after his US Open Coming Out Party. Still, I find it hard to go against Nadal in that top half. He'll have to wait until his annual win in Paris to tie Roger, though. Because Novak Djokovic will defend his title and get himself to 17.
Meanwhile, Serena's pursuit of No. 24 will be a challenge. Seemingly all of the major title contenders join her in the top half of the draw. That includes defending champion Naomi Osaka, last year's finalist Petra Kvitova, her good friend and 2018 champion Caroline Wozniacki (who's retiring after the tournament, which upsets me greatly). Oh, and the world No. 1, Ashleigh Barty, is Australian, so she'll obviously have the home crowd support.
Still, we've seem glimpses of the Serena of old. If we didn't, she wouldn't still be playing. And, as her win last week showed, she's still got it. You just have to wonder if those extra matches took a toll. Because since she had Olympia, we've seen Serena look like her old, great self a lot. But she's also been incredibly outplayed in each of her four Grand Slam final losses over the last two years.
If Serena Williams is on, though, there are very few--if any--players who can beat her. Which is why I like her to finally get that 24th victory and tie Margaret Court. The chances of her having a bad day and/or getting beaten by a younger opponent who made her play their way will always be there. In fact, she'll need to have an almost perfect tournament to win. But I think that's what we'll see. And when Serena Williams is on another level, look out!
Of course, there's a whole bottom side of the draw that might have something to say about that. I'm not sure I see anyone in the bottom half beating her in a final, though. Everyone who'd challenge Serena for the title is on the top half, so the winner of that semifinal will be a heavy favorite in the final. I say this even though 2016 champion Angie Kerber, 2018 finalist Simona Halep, the Pliskova sisters and Elina Svitolina, a semifinalist at both Wimbledon and the US Open last year, occupy the bottom half.
Since Serena has to play someone in the final, I'm going to say Svitolina gets through to her first Grand Slam final. She won't have enough for Serena in the end, though. Not after Willliams gets through that gauntlet in the top half. So, even if Roger keeps his hold on the men's record, we'll still see an all-time Grand Slam record tied. Serena Williams will finally get that 24th career title and match Margaret Court for the most in history.
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