After two painfully slow offseasons where the top names didn't sign until after the New Year, this winter has been anything but. And it's been quite a pleasant change. Every day at the Winter Meetings, massive amounts of money were being thrown around, and the big-name free agents didn't have to wait until January for their markets to develop. Not this year. All the big business was taken care of before Christmas.
In the first three days of the Winter Meetings, Stephen Strasburg stayed with the Nationals, Gerrit Cole picked the Yankees and Anthony Rendon chose the Angels. We also had Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius go to the Phillies (with the Mets getting Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to replace Wheeler), Madison Bumgarner sign with Arizona after a decade in San Francisco, and Cole Hamels rejoin the NL East with Atlanta. Oh, and there was that huge Indians-Rangers trade sending Corey Kluber to Texas, too.
So what made this offseason so different? Well, I think there are several reasons. And the extra roster spot next season (meaning there are 30 more Major League jobs available) isn't one of them.
First, Cole, Strasburg and Rendon are all Scott Boras clients. He knew they were all going to cash in (and thus he would, as well). And it makes sense that he didn't want to drag things out when he had three massive deals in the works. Most people figured one of the pitchers would sign before the other. I thought it would be the other way around, but, in hindsight, Strasburg signing first does make more sense. Cole was always going to get more, so Strasburg set the market instead of the other way around.
More importantly, the market for both pitchers was the same. The big market teams that were looking for starting pitching were all going to put in their bids and directly compete against each other for both guys. Those that didn't get them were going to have to move on, but they needed to know that before their Plan B guys signed elsewhere. Which meant no one was going to sit around and wait until January.
The same can be said for Rendon. He had no shortage of suitors. The Nationals wanted to keep him, but knew they couldn't keep both him and Strasburg (another reason why Washington needed to know about Strasburg...had he left, they could've made a better offer to Rendon). Now they have plenty of time to go after another third baseman (Josh Donaldson is their primary target). Same thing for the Dodgers and Rangers, the other teams that were big on Rendon.
That simply wasn't the case in either of the last two offseasons. Two years ago, everyone knew J.D. Martinez was going to sign with the Red Sox. In fact, Boston was bidding against themselves. Which is why he didn't sign until Spring Training. Same thing last year. Harper and Machado eventually got their $300 million deals. But they both had to wait until February to get them. Partially because teams were reluctant to spend that type of money, but also because the market for both players simply wasn't there. Teams might've wanted them, but they didn't have the money or vice versa. As a result, last year's offseason dragged on and on.
Of course, the other issue last year was qualifying offers and the attached draft pick compensation. That's why Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel didn't sign until June last season. Keuchel no longer has the draft pick compensation attached to him, so you'd figure he'll fare better this go-round. But that didn't deter teams this year. Well, that and the fact that they think this year's free agent crop is worth giving up a draft pick.
There's also some speculation that teams were preparing for changes to the CBA when it expires in 2021. The prevailing thought is that the luxury tax structure will be significantly different moving forward. Most expect the thresholds to rise, which means the Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox and all the other big-market teams will be able to spend more money. So is two years of paying more in luxury tax worth it for Cole? Hank & Hal Steinbrenner decided that it is.
Another factor that can't be discounted is you had big-market teams with a sense of desperation willing to spend a boatload of money. Going an entire decade without a World Series appearance didn't sit well with anyone involved with the Yankees. They needed an ace pitcher and wanted to make sure they got Cole, whatever the cost (which is exactly what George would've done, but Hank & Hal have been reluctant to do themselves).
Same thing with the Angels. Most people (myself included) assumed the Southern California-native Cole would end up in Anaheim. They had the money to spend, badly needed starting pitching, and don't want to waste the career of the best player in the game. They missed out on both Cole and Strasburg (who's from San Diego), and they still need pitching. But the appeal of adding Rendon's bat to their lineup was too much to resist. Their 2-5 (or 3-6) next season will be Trout-Rendon-Pujols-Ohtani. That's not too shabby! Of course, they've got so much money tied up in those four guys, I'm not sure how much they have left for a pitcher.
And we're nowhere close to done, either. Bumgarner's off the board, but Dallas Keuchel and Hyn-Jin Ryu are still available. Josh Donaldson will probably be the next position player to sign (he's the best third baseman available now that Rendon is done), and there are plenty of other bats that remain unsigned, too.
All of them will benefit from the fact that Cole, Strasburg and Rendon signed so early. They were the three superstars who were going to command the big-money contracts. Now that those big-money contracts have been signed, teams know what they have to spend and how they want to spend it. So, unlike that whole crop of free agents who went into Spring Training with nothing but uncertainty last year, we can expect most (if not all) of these guys to have new homes long before teams report to Florida and Arizona in mid-February.
I'm not saying this offseason has completely made up for the last two years, when the players understandably grew frustrated with the tepid free agent market. But it's a start. The Hot Stove League is once again hot. And everyone is better off because of it.
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