If there's one thing that I'm looking forward to the most about this World Series it's this--both teams have outstanding starting pitching! In this Era of the Opener where starting pitching has been so devalued, the two teams that reached the World Series got there because of their starting pitching.
The Astros and Nationals have really made a pretty convincing counterargument to the whole "opener" thing. Just like the Red Sox and Dodgers did last year. And the Astros and Dodgers did two years ago. So did the Cubs and Indians in 2016. And need I remind you about the 2015 Mets' rotation?
As the saying goes, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher." That's why Houston, despite already having Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, traded for Zack Greinke (Arizona's No. 1) at the deadline (to be their No. 3!). That's why Washington, after losing Bryce Harper, doubled down on starting pitching and signed Patrick Corbin as a free agent to join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. That's why both of these teams won the pennant.
Starting pitching is what wins in October. Just ask the Yankees. Last year they lost to the Red Sox primarily because Boston's starting pitching was better than theirs. In 2017, they lost the ALCS because of the Astros' starting pitching. And the same thing happened again this year. Meanwhile, in the NLCS, St. Louis had absolutely no chance. Because of the Nationals' dominant pitching staff.
What the past few postseasons have proven is that, no matter how much some people might want to argue otherwise, the starting pitcher is still the most important player on the team. GMs and managers know that. Did the Astros need Greinke? No. But they went and got him anyway to make their strength that much stronger. Meanwhile, you've got teams desperate for starting pitching while Houston is stockpiling it. Do you think that's a coincidence?
That's the whole thing about the "opener" strategy, which was started by the Rays last year and has become all the rage across the Majors. It's not as simple as I'm about to make it sound, but teams don't use "openers" because they don't value starting pitching. They use them because they do. And they either don't have a starter that day or, more likely, don't have one good enough.
It's true that there are only so many worthwhile starting pitchers in the Majors these days. Which is a symptom of the modern game and its overemphasis on eight-man bullpens (another reason teams use "openers") filled with power arm after power arm. Managers are scared to let starters go beyond six innings and/or, God forbid, face the lineup a third time. Which makes the guys who can do that, guys like Scherzer or Verlander, an even more valuable commodity.
One of the articles I read today previewing the series hit the nail right on the head. It basically said "develop hitting, sign pitching." That's exactly what the Astros have done. Altuve, Bregman, Springer and Correa were all drafted by Houston. Verlander, Cole and Greinke were all acquired via trade. With the exception of Strasburg, it's the same thing in Washington. Scherzer and Corbin were both free agents. But most of their position players (Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, even going all the way back to the original National, Ryan Zimmerman) are home grown.
Of course, they also both benefited from hitting on some high draft picks. The Nationals finished last in five of their first six years after moving from Montreal (and were second-to-last the other time). And they had those back-to-back 100-loss seasons that resulted in back-to-back No. 1 picks...which they turned into Stephen Strasburg and the since departed Bryce Harper. In the last eight years, they've finished either first or second every year, made the playoffs five times, and won the first pennant in franchise history.
Houston's path was similar. All of this was well-documented during their 2017 World Series run, but the Astros tore it down completely. They lost at least 106 games in three consecutive seasons. It yielded them a No. 1 overall pick (Correa) and a No. 2 (Bregman). Now they've won 100 in three straight years and are in the World Series for the second time in three seasons, with an ALCS loss in between. Clearly what they've both done has worked, which gives hope to fans of the teams currently committed to similar tank jobs.
For both teams, though, it's all about the pitching. Because their turnarounds didn't take off until they got the starting pitching to go with the offense. And it's starting pitching. You have all these teams putting this huge emphasis on their bullpens, yet that's arguably the weakness for both World Series participants. (The bullpen, or lack thereof, was usually cited as the reason why the Nationals could never get past the Division Series until this year.) It's not like they have bad bullpens, either. And the fact that they don't overuse them makes those bullpens stronger. (You can ask the Yankees about bullpen overuse, too.)
So, basically, this series is going to come down to the starters. Specifically which team's offense is able to get to the other's starters. Because A.J. Hinch and Dave Martinez are both expecting to get a lot innings out of their horses. And runs are going to be at a premium.
By winning Game 6 against the Yankees, the Astros were able to set up their pitching the way they wanted, too. Because instead of Game 7, Cole can pitch Game 1, where he'll go against Scherzer. Then it's Verlander vs. Strasburg in Game 2 (which it would've been anyway). Greinke goes in Game 3 for Houston, while Washington hasn't named a starter (presumably because Corbin is a bullpen option in Games 1 & 2). Either way, it's Corbin and Anibal Sanchez in DC. Anibal Sanchez, who nearly threw a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLCS is the Nationals' No. 4 starter!
Based on their body of work, the Astros deserve to be the favorites. And the Nationals have to overcome the long layoff, which hasn't worked out well for recent pennant winners who've had a similar break. I do think Houston will win the series. The pitching is a wash, but the Astros have a deeper lineup. So, for all the talk of the pitching, that'll be the difference. Astros in six.
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