We made it! Football season is here! Which means it's time for the season premiere of the weekly Joe Brackets NFL picks! I lock them in before the Thursday night game, but I usually don't reveal them until Saturday night or Sunday morning (and tell you how I did on Thursday). Week 1 and Thanksgiving are the two exceptions to that rule.
Also, for those of you who are new to the space, please note that these are straight winner picks. I don't pick against the spread, and I never will. The reason for this is simple. The spread has no bearing on the actual result of the game. If the spread is 3.5 and the favorite "only" wins by three, the win still counts in the standings! Thus, the spread is irrelevant to me. And with that, it's on to the Week 1 picks, starting with the NFL's marquee rivalry...
Packers at Bears: Green Bay-For the first time since the tradition began, the Super Bowl champ doesn't open its defense on Thursday night. With good reason. Because the NFL wants to start its 100th season with its oldest rivalry. So we get Bears-Packers instead, which I'm totally fine with. Last year they played in Week 1 and Aaron Rodgers had one of his trademark comebacks. It turned out to be one of the few highlights of the Packers' season. With a new coach in Green Bay and Chicago coming off a division title, the Bears are favored in this one. But I just have a feeling that Rodgers will do his thing and the Packers will pull this one out.
Falcons at Vikings: Minnesota-Two teams that, in their opinion, massively underachieved last season. And they both have huge expectations coming into 2019, too. So getting off to a good start is definitely important for each of them. Minnesota will have the benefit of knowing who wins on Thursday night (and who they'll be trying to keep pace with). And the Vikings will tie whichever one it is for the early division lead.
Ravens at Dolphins: Miami-Now we'll see how Year No. 2 of the Lamar Jackson Era goes in Baltimore. I definitely think the honeymoon phase is over and reality will set in pretty quickly. In fact, it could be as early as this week. Because the Ravens aren't nearly as good as they were last season. Miami isn't good, either. But I still think they'll open the season with a victory.
Bills at Jets: Jets-With the Patriots not playing until Sunday night, the winner of this one will get to enjoy being in first place, if only for a few hours. This game will also help set the tone for both teams' season. Because second place behind New England is up for grabs. The Jets made a big splash with the LeVeon Bell signing, while LeSean McCoy was one the Bills' final cuts. So, when it comes to the running game, it's advantage Jets. And they'll let LeVeon run his way to a pair of touchdowns in a Week 1 victory.
Chiefs at Jaguars: Kansas City-New England's last two AFC Championship Game victims face each other to begin 2019. Except they're on completely different trajectories. Kansas City is probably the only team good enough to actually challenge the Patriots. The Jaguars are looking to rebound after a disappointing 2018. They brought in Nick Foles, which will definitely help. But they're no match for the Chiefs.
Rams at Panthers: Rams-After being embarrassed in the Super Bowl, I'm sure the Rams have been chomping at the bit to get back on the field. They'll finally get that chance against a good Panthers team that should give them a test. This has the makings of being one of the more entertaining Week 1 contests. Expect plenty of points to be put up with these two offenses. But the Rams have a little more firepower and the better defense. That'll be the difference. Plus, the Panthers are wearing white, which means Rams throwbacks!!
Titans at Browns: Cleveland-Count me as one of those people jumping aboard the Cleveland Browns bandwagon in 2019! It was in Week 1 last season that they put us all on notice they were no longer a pushover by tying the Steelers. This time, they enter the season with playoff expectations (and more). And I can see them making another Week 1 statement. They don't just beat the Titans, they win this one going away.
Redskins at Eagles: Philadelphia-All eyes will be on Carson Wentz this season. Because Philadelphia has lost its Nick Foles insurance policy. They're still in better shape than the Redskins, though. Washington very well might be the worst team in the entire NFL. But...this is still an NFC East division game. Which means it's going to be a close, grind-it-out battle. Ultimately, though, the Eagles have more than enough fire power to start the season 1-0.
Bengals at Seahawks: Seattle-There's a method to Pete Carroll's madness. With the Rams coming off a Super Bowl appearance and the 49ers significantly better, he doubled down on his team's strength--the defense. Seattle will begin its 2019 campaign with an infrequent visit from a new-look Bengals team that doesn't have Marvin Lewis patrolling the sidelines for the first time in a long time. Traveling to Seattle, and a stadium where the Seahawks almost never lose, doesn't exactly scream "Welcome to the NFL!" for their first-year coach Zac Taylor, even if he does know the Seahawks well having come from the Rams.
Colts at Chargers: Chargers-This was orfinally going to be a matchup between two Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Then Andrew Luck decided to retire, which changed the Colts' entire outlook for this season. They are still coming off a playoff appearance, though, so they're not in as bad shape as some other teams would be in a similar situation. And, to be fair, even with Luck they wouldn't be favored against the Chargers. The Chargers have every reason to believe they're Super Bowl contenders. And they'll be going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs all season, so they can't afford any early slip-ups. Especially at home.
Lions at Cardinals: Arizona-Excitement is high in Arizona with the arrival of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury! That excitement will (most likely) quickly wear off once the fans realize that the Cardinals still aren't very good, but a Week 1 home game against the Lions will be enough to keep them thinking grand thoughts for at least another week. The good times will stop soon after, though.
Giants at Cowboys: Dallas-The annual Giants-Cowboys Week 1 game gets a little bit of a twist this year. It's on Sunday afternoon instead of at night. This game features arguably the two best running backs in the game in Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. Even though Zeke missed all of training camp, he's good to go for Week 1 and will probably run all over the Giant defense. Dallas simply has more weapons, while the Giants basically just have Saquon.
49ers at Buccaneers: San Francisco-Bruce Arians makes his return to NFL coaching, while Jimmy Garroppolo returns to action for the first time in nearly a full year. I don't know what to make of this game. Tampa Bay put up like 90 points while getting out to a 2-0 start last season before it all went downhill, but this is a different Bucs team than a year ago. They aren't much better, though. And Garroppolo's return makes a huge difference for San Francisco. The 49ers will also get to play with their new toy Nick Bosa for the first time, so Jamies Winston better be ready.
Steelers at Patriots: New England-Do you think people in Boston are mad that the Patriots ended up playing on Sunday night instead of Thursday night? Especially since Yankees-Red Sox is also on Sunday night? Or have they just gotten so used to winning the Super Bowl that it doesn't even matter anymore? Anyway, they were undefeated at home last season and usually beat the Steelers. Don't expect any different to start this season. After all, we don't want to give the Patriots anything they can perceive as a slight. Especially on the night of their annual banner unveiling.
Texans at Saints: New Orleans-Monday Night Football in the Big Easy! Against a quality Texans team, too. This should be an entertaining matchup between the Saint's electric offense and Houston's tough defense. Although, as the Colts proved in the playoffs, a good offense that can move the ball can completely shut down the Texans' defense. That's exactly what New Orleans has. Expect a vintage Drew Brees performance and a lot of points being scored by the team in black and gold.
Broncos at Raiders: Denver-It's the Raiders' final home opener in Oakland, and it'll be against one of their longtime rivals. Denver is looking to rebound after its first consecutive 10-loss campaigns since the 70s, but at least now they have an actual NFL quarterback in Joe Flacco! These teams both know that the Chiefs and Chargers are gonna run away with the division. So beating each other becomes that much more important. And I think the Broncos have the upper hand.
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