A lot of people think this year's team might be better than the one that took the field in Canada, so the Americans have been installed in their usual position as favorites. It's by no means a guarantee, though. Because the women's game is much better than it was in 2015, and the World Cup field is much deeper. There are about four or five other countries that legitimately feel like they have a shot, which should make this the best, most competitive Women's World Cup ever.
There's still quite a gap between the top teams and the lower-ranked squads that will finish at the bottom of their groups. But the gap between the top teams is much smaller. And the mid-level teams are capable of an upset, which wasn't always the case in World Cups past.
There's still quite a gap between the top teams and the lower-ranked squads that will finish at the bottom of their groups. But the gap between the top teams is much smaller. And the mid-level teams are capable of an upset, which wasn't always the case in World Cups past.
Group A: France, South Korea, Norway, Nigeria-France has a very good chance of becoming just the second country to win a Women's World Cup on home soil. And they're not going to face much of a challenge in Group A. The real battle will be for the second spot between Norway and South Korea. Either way, both of them should advance. Nigeria is the strongest of the three African teams and would have a reasonable chance of advancing out of another group. The other three in this group are better, though.
Group B: Germany, Spain, China, South Africa-Nobody's talking about Germany, but they should be. They're the Olympic champions and ranked No. 2 in the world. They're as much of a threat to win this tournament as anybody (I'd say they're the third favorite behind the U.S. and France). In group play, they've got Spain, China and South Africa, so they should be able to avoid the same fate as the German men last year. Spain is a team on the rise and should finish second in the group, and China will be a dangerous third-place team for whatever group winner ends up getting them in the round of 16.
Group C: Australia, Brazil, Italy, Jamaica-What a story Jamaica is! The team has been disbanded because of lack of funding like three times, and they're really only still playing because of Bob Marley's daughter. Now they're the first team from the Caribbean to make the Women's World Cup. Unfortunately, their debut won't be a long one in the Green & Gold Group. Italy is probably the best of the likely third-place teams, while the Australia-Brazil game will likely determine first and second in the group. Australia is a popular sleeper pick to make a deep run, and you can never count out Marta.
Group D: Japan, England, Scotland, Argentina-Somehow Japan wasn't ranked high enough to be seeded (neither was Brazil, for that matter). But they still ended up getting a pretty good draw. This group includes the second (Japan) and third-place (England) finishers at the last Women's World Cup, and they should easily go 1-2 in this group. I can't wait for the game between them, which should be the best of the opening round. The Scotland-Argentina game should be good, too. And it'll probably determine which of them joins England and Japan in the knockout stage.
Group E: Canada, Netherlands, New Zealand, Cameroon-Canada and the Netherlands are very evenly matched, and the group could go either way. The Canadians are the seed, but they won't have home field advantage this time, while the Dutch almost certainly will. They'll both advance easily, but second place in the group gets the USA or Sweden in the round of 16, so you know they'll both want to finish first. New Zealand will hope to get a point off one of them. Otherwise, they'll need to beat Cameroon badly to advance.
Group F: United States, Sweden, Thailand, Chile-Of course the USA and Sweden ended up together! It's a Women's World Cup rule! This is the fifth consecutive Women's World Cup where they'll meet in the group stage, but this one will have a little more intrigue after what happened in Rio (Sweden beating the U.S. in the quarterfinals). They don't play until the last group game, by which point they'll have both clinched a spot in the knockout stage, so I'm curious to see how that one will play out. The group winner could potentially face France in the quarters, but second place could play Canada or the Netherlands in the round of 16, then Germany. So I'd go for the group win and take my chances with France. I can almost guarantee that this group will NOT produce one of the top four third-place finishers.
Making picks for the latter stages of the tournament is tough because of the third-place teams. Although, the four that do advance will all play first-place finishers, so that makes things a little bit easier. And the knockout stage does present some intriguing possibilities, including quarterfinal matchups between tournament favorites.
Most experts like the United States and France. However, if they both win their group, one of them won't even reach the semifinals. That's because they'd meet in the quarterfinals. It's worth noting here that the U.S. has never finished worse than third at the Women's World Cup, but that's a definite possibility should the France matchup happen. There's also a 1E vs 2D round of 16 game, so either Japan or England will play Canada or the Netherlands in the first knockout game (and the other team in the Canada/Netherlands group has to play either the U.S. or Sweden).
So, the teams that really lucked out with their draw were Australia and Brazil. It doesn't even matter which one finishes first and which one finishes second. They'll both have a nice-looking path to the semifinals.
Based on the third-place teams that I have advancing, my round of 16 bracket looks like this: Norway-Brazil, Japan-China, France-Italy, Spain-United States, Australia-South Korea, Canada-England, Germany-Scotland, Sweden-Netherlands. My quarterfinals are Brazil-Japan, France-United States, Australia-England and Germany-Sweden. I have France vs. Japan and Australia vs. Germany in the semifinals, with France beating Germany in the final to become the first nation in 20 years to win the Women's World Cup at home (at the first to hold both the Men's and Women's World Cups at the same time).
Which isn't to say I don't think the USWNT can win. Just the opposite. And it really illustrates the competitive nature of this tournament. The United States, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, England. A legitimate case can be made for any of them winning. Which is going to make for an exciting Women's World Cup.
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