Changing the Draft Game

Carter Stewart is taking a big risk.  He may pull it off, he may not.  We're still too far away from knowing.  But if he does, he could change the MLB Draft forever.

Stewart is a 19-year-old pitcher who was taken eighth overall by the Braves last year, but didn't sign after they reduced his signing bonus.  He pitched a junior college in Florida this year, which means he's eligible to be drafted again next month (had he gone to a four-year college, he would've had to wait until after his junior year).  Stewart was projected as a second-round pick.  But that's not going to happen.  He's going to Japan instead.

In a groundbreaking agreement, Stewart is on the verge of signing a six-year, $7 million deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japanese Pacific League.  That's significantly more money than he'd earn making his way through the Minors.  And, more importantly, it'll make him a free agent earlier. 

Because he'll technically be an international free agent, he'll fall under the same posting system as Ichiro and Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani.  Stewart is committing to six years in Japan.  But after that, he'll be able to go anywhere he wants as a 25-year-old free agent.  Which is much earlier than he would under the standard Major League rookie contract.

He'll also hit free agency a lot richer than he would be making his way through the Minors.  Under the terms of the current CBA, rookie salaries are slotted based on their draft position.  They don't make the real money until they reach the Majors.  But even the Major League minimum is $550,000.  So, $7 million plus incentives and still becoming a free agent at 25 or a few years in the Minors followed by a few at the league minimum?  The math seems pretty simple to me.

This isn't the first time a player has bet on himself like this.  Bryce Harper finished high school in three years then enrolled in a junior college just so he could enter the draft a year earlier.  We all know how things worked out for him.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Harper and Stewart share an agent.  Scott Boras.  Boras has a reputation for making sure his clients get the most money possible, and this is just another example of it.  Boras has evidently tried to exploit this loophole before, but hasn't had a client brave enough to try it until now.  And it's definitely worth watching to see if it works.  Because if it does, Stewart won't be the last.

The move is bold, and the risk is calculated.  There's no guarantee of success.  There are massive cultural differences between Japan and the United States.  And he's there for six years no matter what.  There's no getting out of the contract early if things don't work out.  But Stewart and Boras are banking on the positives outweighing the negatives.  And banking on the financial windfall that could be the result.

Keep in mind, too, that he isn't using this as a shortcut to the draft.  No shortcut is needed.  If he wanted to, he could be drafted in a few weeks and playing rookie ball shortly after that.  This is a conscious choice to, essentially, bypass the Minor Leagues entirely and take his chances in Japan, where the competition is somewhere between Major League and Triple A-quality.

It's not unusual for an American to go over and play in Japan.  There are countless examples of players whose careers were either extended or revived after a stint in Japan, as well as those who've enjoyed long, successful careers on the other side of the Pacific.  What makes Stewart different, though, is that he's not an established pro.  He's an amateur.  So Fukuoka's taking a considerable amount of risk, too.

Although, if you're thinking this might be the start of a new trend, don't get carried away.  Japanese teams are limited to a maximum of four foreigners, which means there are only 48 non-Japanese players in all of Nippon Professional Baseball.  So there isn't going to be this sudden influx of American amateurs into the Japanese Central and Pacific Leagues.  Which is good.  Because it means the Japanese teams will have to be selective on who they bring over and sign to these multi-million dollar contracts.  And the Hawks think a 19-year-old who's 6'6 and throws in the mid-90s is worth one of those four spots.  Amateur or not.

None of this is set in stone yet.  The i's still need to be dotted and the t's still need to be crossed.  But it'll be fascinating to watch over the next six years.  And Carter Stewart already appears to be the most intriguing free agent in the Class of 2025.