Football Hall of Fame Saturday

Predicting who's going to get the call this afternoon after voting concludes and walk out onto the stage tonight as the newest members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame is never easy.  There's only 40 guys in the room, and we have no idea what goes on behind those closed doors.  Unlike baseball, they don't make the vote public.  And unlike baseball, they have a set number of guys going in each year, so beyond the obvious first-ballot guys, there's really no way of knowing who else will make the cut.

That's why I was impressed last year that I actually went 4-for-5.  The only one I missed was T.O., a decision that many of the voters immediately came to regret anyway.  I feel pretty good about this year, too.  There are two obvious first-ballot guys and a third that could very likely join them, which only leaves two or three spots available for everyone else.

Let's start with those obvious first-ballot guys...

Tony Gonzalez, Tight End (1997-2008 Chiefs, 2009-13 Falcons)-We knew the moment he retired that he'd be the headliner of this year's Hall of Fame class.  Gonzalez is, quite simply, the greatest tight end in NFL history.  He made 1,325 career catches.  That's more than everybody but Jerry Rice.  This pass-happy era was held against wide receivers for far too long, but Gonzalez wasn't a wide receiver.  He was a tight end, which means he had to block and do all kinds of other dirty work too.  He revolutionized the position and was a focal point of both teams' passing game.  Perhaps the only bad thing you can say about Tony Gonzalez is that he never played in a Super Bowl.

Ed Reed, Safety (2002-12 Ravens, 2013 Texans, 2013 Jets)-Like Gonzalez, it was obvious Reed would be a member of this year's Hall of Fame class the second he retired.  And like Gonzalez, he might've been the best ever to play his position.  Reed was right there alongside Ray Lewis for a decade in that dominant Ravens defense.  He was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2004 and had 64 career interceptions (two of which went for the longest returns in NFL history).  A complete game-changer on the defensive side of the ball.  They've done a good job of clearing out the wide receiver backlog.  There's now a safety backlog that they started to clear with Brian Dawkins last year.  There are two other safeties among this year's finalists, but neither Steve Atwater nor John Lynch holds a candle to Ed Reed.

During the show on NFL Network where they announced the finalists, one of the voters was on the panel.  Everybody was in agreement about Gonzalez and Reed.  Then talk turned to the third first-time-eligible finalist: Champ Bailey.  And he made a very valid argument about how the career numbers for Bailey and Ty Law are very similar.  So how is Bailey an "obvious" first-ballot guy when Law's been waiting for several years?  It'll likely be a fascinating conversation about the two cornerbacks.  I wouldn't even be surprised to see them both get in.  I'm thinking it'll be only one, though...

Champ Bailey, Cornerback (1999-2003 Redskins, 2004-13 Broncos)-As compelling as the argument made for Law was (and those letters from Bradicheck will likely help, too), I can't bring myself to say he was better than Champ Bailey.  So, if I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Bailey.  He and Charles Woodson (a first-ballot lock in a few years) were widely recognized as the best corners in the game pretty much throughout Bailey's career.  An eight-time All-Pro and 12-time Pro Bowler in 15 seasons.  Five solid years in Washington before 10 great years in Denver where the Broncos were in the playoffs pretty much every season.

So that takes care of the three first-ballot guys.  Now for everybody else, which includes an offensive lineman whose election is long overdue.  This year should take care of that.

Kevin Mawae, Center (1994-97 Seahawks, 1998-2005 Jets, 2006-09 Titans)-No other offensive lineman should go into the Hall of Fame before Kevin Mawae.  The fact that he still isn't in is ridiculous.  Offensive linemen are always tough.  Usually, you can only figure out who's good by watching.  And Kevin Mawae was the best center in the game for pretty much his entire career.  All-Pro six times, All-Decade Team in the 2000s.  But this, to me is the best Mawae stat.  In his 16 years, his teams featured seven different running backs who combined for 13 different 1,000-yard seasons.

My fifth call is a little tougher.  But, with the Rams back in the Super Bowl, there's probably going to be a lot of sentiment for one particular guy.  And, after a number of wide receivers have been inducted in recent years, he's now the best one in the mix.

Isaac Bruce, Wide Receiver (1994-2007 Rams, 2008-09 49ers)-Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk and Orlando Pace are already in the Hall of Fame.  Time for another member of the Greatest Show On Turf to join them.  Was Bruce made better by having those other Hall of Famers around him?  Yes.  Is that team nearly as good without him?  Absolutely not!  He's one of only 14 players in history with 1,000 catches.  That 14 includes Tony Gonzalez, who'll become the sixth Hall of Famer in that group.  Will there be two players with 1,000 catches in the same Hall of Fame class?

And, of course, the Hall of Fame class will be rounded out by the three senior/contributor finalists.  And, as usual, those candidates are all deserving.

Johnny Robinson, Safety (1960-71 Texans/Chiefs)-An original member of the Texans/Chiefs who played 12 seasons with the franchise.  He played in Super Bowl I and won Super Bowl IV with the Chiefs.  There aren't many Hall of Famers who played primarily in the AFL, but Robinson will be one.  He could've played in either league, but chose the AFL.  He ended up playing in the league for its entire 10-year existence and was selected to the AFL's All-time Team.

Pat Bowlen, Owner (1984- Broncos)-Broncos Owner Pat Bowlen has been dealing with some health problems recently to the point where John Elway handles most of the franchise's day-to-day operations.  But there's no denying that he built Denver into one of the NFL's model franchises.  Over the past 35 seasons, the Broncos have made the playoffs 18 times, won 13 division titles, played in seven Super Bowls and won three championships.  When Vance Joseph was fired at the end of the season, one of the reasons why was because he presided over Denver's first back-to-back 10-loss campaigns since they played in the AFL.  In fact, they've only ever been under .500 seven times since Bowlen bought the team.  That's a consistent winner.

Gil Brandt, Contributor (1960-88 Cowboys, 1995- NFL)-Fellow Cowboys architects Tex Schramm and Tom Landry are both already in the Hall of Fame.  Now Brandt will likely join them.  He was the VP of Player Personnel for those Dallas teams, and just as responsible for turning the Cowboys into America's Team.  After Jerry Jones cleaned house when he bought the team, Brandt joined NFL.com at its inception in 1995 and has been a regular contributor ever since.  That's not the reason he'll be voted into the Hall of Fame, though.  It'll be for his 29 years in Dallas.