There's one thing I forgot to mention in my post about Andy Murray's retirement the other day. I touched on it a little bit, but not to the extent I should've. Murray's won three Grand Slam titles and two Olympic gold medals. It certainly would've been more if he hadn't had the misfortune of playing at the same time as three all-time greats. But the fact that he was able to wrestle three away from them in this era actually speaks to Murray's greatness.
He's been a finalist in Australia five times, more than the other three Grand Slams put together. Yet he's never won the title Down Under, losing his first final to Federer and the others to Djokovic. Murray's not going to win this year, either. He might not even get out of the first round in his final Australian Open. But it would be great if he could somehow summon a run and win a round or two (which would almost guarantee he won't make it until Wimbledon).
Djokovic is the near-unanimous favorite on the men's side. And with good reason. He's clearly back to his old self after that 2017 wrist injury. In fact, he's halfway to a second Nole Slam after winning last year's Wimbledon and US Open. It was the third time that he won both Wimbledon and the US Open in the same year. And both previous times he followed it up by winning in Australia.
This has traditionally been his best tournament. He's won six titles, including a ridiculous five in six years from 2011-16. Djokovic and two-time defending champion Roger Federer are tied for the all-time record with six Australian Open titles, and it's a good bet that one of them will hold the record all by himself in two weeks. Because between them, they've won 12 of the last 15 tournaments. And there's no reason to think one of them won't win again this year.
And with Djokovic and Federer on opposite sides of the draw, I'm even having a hard time envisioning someone else preventing them from facing each other in the final. Sure, Federer's road is a little harder. He could see Marin Cilic in a rematch of last year's final in the quarters, then potentially face Nadal in the semis. Djokovic, meanwhile, I'd be very surprised if he even drops a set before the final.
Another potential highlight of the men's draw is the possible round of 16 match between Kevin Anderson and John Isner. It was the six-hour Wimbledon semifinal between those two that got the powers-to-be at the All-England Club to finally give in and institute final-set tiebreakers.
They'll be using final-set tiebreakers here for the first time, too. Which is long overdue. Because Melbourne is notorious for its summer heat, and that often becomes a storyline unto itself every year. With final set tiebreakers, the midday five-set marathons in that heat, while not being eliminated completely, now have a definite endpoint. And that should result in fewer retirements, as well as potentially keeping those players fresher later in the tournament.
Serena Williams is the pre-tournament favorite on the women's side. But the margin between her and the other women is much closer than the margin between Djokovic vs. the men's field. There are a number of women I can see hoisting the trophy, including defending champion Caroline Wozniacki, 2016 winner Angelique Kerber and world No. 1 Simona Halep. As well as the last two US Open champs--Sloane Stephens and Naomi Osaka.
Let's start with Serena. This is her first trip to Australia since winning the title while pregnant in 2017. That was her 23rd Grand Slam title, leaving her one shy of tying Margaret Court (the namesake for one of the Australian Open's stadiums) for the all-time record. Like Djokovic, there's no question Serena's back. She made that abundantly clear by reaching the final at both Wimbledon and the US Open. She lost both, though, (the US Open loss to Osaka in spectacular fashion) so her total stays at 23. Can she get the 24th here?
Her draw isn't exactly easy. No special seeding for her. She's ranked 16th, so she was seeded 16th. Although that meant she would draw a top-8 seed in the round of 16, and the top-8 seed she ended up with was No. 1 Halep, assuming Halep beats Venus (who's unseeded after dropping to No. 37 in the world) in the previous round.
Of course, everyone knows that that when Serena Williams is involved, you can throw the rankings out the window. When she's healthy, she's the best player in the world. Nothing has changed. But, as Kerber proved in the final here three years ago and Osaka proved in the US Open final, she's not invincible. And Serena has lost to some no-names at Grand Slams during her career, as well. She deserves to be the favorite, but this isn't Nadal at the French. She'll have to earn it.
I'm also curious to see what kind of a tournament Woz is going to have. She finally got that Grand Slam monkey off her back last year. Now she'll return to Australia as the defending champion, which brings a whole different set of challenges/expectations. She's also been notorious for some early Grand Slam exits. In fact, it's usually all or nothing with Wozniacki. She either loses in the first week or makes a deep run. Which Woz will show up?
Woziacki, by the way, could end up playing Sharapova in the third round, a matchup that would almost be worth waking up at 3:30 in the morning to watch. It was the Australian Open, of course, that triggered Maria's meldonium suspension in 2016. Last year was her first time back and she made the third round. But, like a Serena, a healthy and in-form Maria Sharapova is always a threat. If she doesn't lose in the first or second round.
None of these women are my pick, though. That would be Angelique Kerber. She picked Serena apart in winning the 2016 title, a year in which she made three Grand Slam finals and was the year-end No. 1. After struggling in 2017, Kerber returned to that championship form last year. I think that continues into 2019. In a repeat of 2016, gimme Kerber over Serena for the title.
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