I'll never understand pro football in Ohio. Or at least the people who run pro football in Ohio. Hue Jackson goes 1-31 in two years, only to get fired in the middle of the season when the Browns actually don't suck. Marvin Lewis, meanwhile, got a two-year contract extension when it was clear to pretty much everyone that he needed to go after last season. It's apparent this season, too, which means the Bengals will probably retain him.
Other coaches won't be so lucky. As the NFL season heads into the home stretch, several coaches are coaching their final few games with their respective teams. There's usually about five or six openings every season, and this year will probably follow that trend. We already know there's definitely going to be an opening in Cleveland. Because there's no way Gregg Williams will be made the Browns' permanent coach. Frankly, I'd be shocked if it isn't Bruce Arians. He wouldn't be saying he's interested in it otherwise. It'll be like Gruden and the Raiders last year.
Speaking of Jon Gruden, he's safe. This year has been a disaster for the Raiders, but they gave him a 10-year deal and they're paying him way too much money to part ways after just one year. Especially since they're allowing him to mold the team in his own image as they get ready for their move to Vegas, where he'll be the headliner.
Also safe is Gruden's Bay Area counterpart Kyle Shanahan. He hasn't really had a chance thanks to all the 49ers' injuries this season. Steve Wilks in Arizona is probably safe, too. The Cardinals are rebuilding. Everyone knew they were going to have a rough year. You can't blame Wilks for what was expected. Ditto for Pat Shurmur. He couldn't have been expected to cure all the Giants' ills in one season.
So who is on the hot seat? I'd say the guy who shares a stadium with Shurmur is at the top of the list. Todd Bowles is in his fourth year with the Jets. He won 10 games his first year, but has only won 13 combined in the three seasons since. They've lost five in a row and have no offense. Molding Sam Darnold into a franchise quarterback will be somebody else's job.
The Packers never change coaches, but Mike McCarthy sure seems to be in trouble, too. If they miss the playoffs for the second year in a row, I think he's as good as gone. He's had a great 13 years, making the playoffs nine times (including eight straight), winning six division titles and a Super Bowl. But this certainly looks like a case of a team just needing a change.
That's two (well, three if you count Cleveland). Who else will join them on the unemployment line? Dirk Koetter in Tampa Bay. The Bucs were so good in his first year, but they regressed big time last season. And this year, they've completely collapsed after they stopped scoring 40 points a game. Worse yet, they're in the NFC South, which dooms them to continually being non-competitive in their current state.
Last year's run to the AFC Championship Game is probably the only thing keeping Jacksonville Head Coach Doug Marrone safe. This is probably the only year he'll get, though. If the Jaguars are 3-8 and on a seven-game losing streak at this point next season, though...
Same thing with Dan Quinn in Atlanta. His season isn't entirely hot yet, but it's definitely lukewarm. If the Falcons are in this same situation again next year, the memories of that Super Bowl run won't really mean too much. And let's not forget, that was the second time he handed a Super Bowl to the Patriots.
It might sound strange, but even though both of their teams are in the playoff hunt, Jason Garrett and John Harbaugh might need to make the playoffs to keep their jobs. You never know what Jerry Jones is going to do, but the Cowboys have only made the playoffs twice and only won one playoff game in Garrett's tenure. Harbaugh, meanwhile, has won a Super Bowl, but the Ravens have only played in one postseason game in the six seasons since. If, as expected, they move on from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson after this season, expect them to move on with a new coach, too.
Denver's an interesting case. I can see it going either way. Vance Joseph's only won 10 games total in two seasons, but it wasn't really his fault that they went 5-11 (with no quarterback) last season. And they're perhaps the scariest 5-6 team in the league this season. They've beaten the Chargers, Steelers and Seahawks, were competitive with the Chiefs twice (and should've won that Monday night game), and also gave both the Rams and Texans a game. Their only real dud was against the Jets. My guess is they give Joseph and Case Keenum another year together.
Then there's Adam Gase in Miami. The Dolphins have perpetually been in the same state for the 20 years since Dan Marino retired. Looking for something that's going to work as they try and find some way to compete with Bradicheck. Things started off well for Gase. The Dolphins got a wild card in his first season. But last year they went 6-10, and this season they're 5-6 after a 3-0 start. Miami might want to try something new once again, which means we could see a new quarterback and new head coach in South Florida in 2019.
Matt Patricia has struggled in his first year with the Lions, but, since it's his first year, he's probably safe. Same with Bills coach Sean McDermott. After all, he took that team to the playoffs last season. They haven't come close to replicating it, but no one thought they would. And he's done a solid job in a year where they were supposed to be uncompetitive, including that out-of-the-blue blowout of the Vikings in Minnesota. Sure, the losses have been ugly. But I still think he gets another year to groom his young quarterback.
We know for a fact that the Cleveland job will definitely be open. I feel confident in saying that the Jets and Bucs jobs will be available, also. If they don't make the playoffs (which I don't think they will), the Packers will also be in the market for a new coach. I'm also going to say Cincinnati and Marvin Lewis will finally part ways. I'll say Miami and Baltimore open up, too, with Jason Garrett and Vance Joseph each being given one more year.
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