Boy, were we spoiled this year. Not only did October baseball start a day early, we got two division championship games in the National League. They were somewhat anticlimactic in that the Cubs and Rockies both made the playoffs anyway. But it was also incredibly appropriate considering how wide open the National League was all season.
And that's why I think this October is going to be wide open in both leagues. There were three 100-win teams in the AL, the first time in history that has occurred. But don't sleep on Cleveland. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Indians win the pennant. Meanwhile, all five National League teams are pretty much the same degree of good. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one's gonna get (or stay) hot over the next three weeks.
One thing I do know it that it won't be the Nationals, this year's winner of the Most Disappointing Team award. So, my preseason World Series pick will obviously have to be revised. The Houston part still looks good, but the Astros won't be facing Washington.
Although, that's really the only reason why I'm sticking with the Astros. Houston is better than last year's champions. But so are the Red Sox. So are the Yankees. And I'd even argue, so are the Indians. Picking an AL pennant winner is practically impossible. Because you could make a case for or against every team. You could seriously choose one out of a hat and have just as much a chance of being right as if you were to base it on anything baseball-related.
Houston does seem to be the strongest AL team on paper, though. They had a ridiculously good September to hold off the A's, and their lineup is finally healthy. You combine that with arguably the best starting rotation of any playoff team and an improved bullpen, and it's easy to see the Astros becoming the third AL team this decade to win consecutive pennants.
Red Sox fans will be quick to remind you that they were the best team in baseball all season, though. You don't win 108 games if you aren't crazy good. But there are some questions with Boston's rotation, and their bullpen has always been their Achilles' heel. Plus, as much as they improved their bench with smart trade-deadline acquisitions, they're still incredibly top-heavy. What I mean by that is the top six in their lineup is ridiculously good (obviously), but the bottom third isn't great and the bench isn't that strong, either.
The questions surrounding the Yankees obviously are centered around the starting rotation. But their lineup, which is actually healthy 1-9, hit a Major-League record 267 home runs this season. If they hit the way they can and get good enough starting pitching, the best bullpen in baseball can take care of the rest. Being a wild card won't phase them in the slightest. Neither does the possibility of facing their archrivals in the Division Series or a potential ALCS rematch with Houston. (Of course, with all this talk about the Yankees in the Division Series and ALCS, watch them lose to Oakland!)
Like I said, don't sleep on Cleveland. The Indians have had everything locked up for so long that they've been setting themselves up for October since the All*Star Break. They've got the pitching to go toe-to-toe with Houston, and their lineup is much more than just Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. The Astros are still the favorites in that Division Series. But the Indians are an incredibly formidable opponent.
Over in the National League, I'm glad the Dodgers won and claimed their sixth straight NL West title. Because the three best teams in the National League are the Brewers, Cubs and Dodgers, so it wouldn't have seemed right to have either the Braves or Rockies guaranteed a spot in the NLCS (it would've been cool to see Colorado win its first-ever division title, though).
For most of the second half, I thought the road to the NL pennant went through Wrigley. It looked even more that way when the Nationals officially threw in the towel and traded Daniel Murphy to the Cubs. But then the Milwaukee Brewers went on an absolutely ridiculous run. And suddenly they look unbeatable. The Brewers have a 2007 Rockies/2014 Royals vibe about them right now. I said a week ago, almost tongue-in-cheek, "Watch the Brewers win the NL pennant." It's not so tongue-in-cheek that I say that now.
A Brewers-Cubs Division Series is almost as good as a Yankees-Red Sox Division Series. And, just like Yankees-Red Sox, I can easily see the wild card team knocking out its top-seeded division rival. Don't forget, the Cubs have been to three straight NLCS. The first one when they were a wild card...and they beat the archrival Cardinals in the Division Series. This Brewers team is better than the 2015 Cardinals, though. I just wonder how long Milwaukee's gonna be able to stay on this run.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been nearly as hot as the Brewers over the past month. It took them a little while to get things going, but they finally did in September. And this finally looks like the superstar-laden Dodgers team you'd expect. Remember, too, that this team is tired of losing in the playoffs. Especially after losing Game 7 of the World Series last year. A third straight NLCS appearance won't be enough. Especially since they're better than the Braves.
Atlanta was the only NL playoff team that knew what was going on yesterday. The Braves might've arrived a year early, and they sure took advantage of Washington's down year. It's a nice story, but I think the Braves are the weakest of the 10 playoff teams. This will be good experience for them moving forward, but they're not as good as the Dodgers. And I have a feeling that their ending up with a worse record than LA, meaning they're the ones traveling cross-country for Games 1 & 2, could end up making a difference in that series.
I'm not discounting Colorado and Oakland. The A's have been a surprise all year, but they certainly belong in the playoffs. I just don't see them winning in Yankee Stadium. Ditto with the Rockies. That NL West game was much more important to win than the NL Central game in my opinion. Because now Colorado has to play three games in three different cities in three days. Meanwhile, the Cubs didn't go anywhere. And they have Jon Lester pitching. As good as the Rockies' lineup is, being travel-weary and facing Lester is a lot to ask.
So, here are my official revised MLB postseason predictions. The Cubs beat the Rockies in the NL Wild Card Game. NLDS: Brewers over Cubs in four, Dodgers over Braves in four. Then the Brewers beat the Dodgers in six in the NLCS. In the AL, the Yankees beat Oakland in the Wild Card Game, Houston sweeps Cleveland, the Red Sox beat the Yankees in five, then the Astros beat the Red Sox in six. And, the Houston Astros become the first team since the 1998-2000 Yankees to defend a World Series title. They beat Milwaukee in six in a World Series between the two teams that switched leagues.
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