Since they can change the roster between the Wild Card Game and the Division Series, I fully expect them to do that. After all, there's no need for all four starting pitchers to be on the roster against Oakland. Aaron Boone has hinted that the decision on who's starting is between Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino and J.A. Happ (who'll be on normal rest), so it's safe to say CC Sabathia at the very least won't be on the roster for the Wild Card Game. My guess is it'll be CC and another pitcher kept off so that they can take two extra position players for pinch hitting/pinch running/defense duty.
But here's where it gets interesting. Who do you take off between the Wild Card Game and the Division Series? Assuming they were to do 13 position players (one more than in the regular season), that means a four-man bench. Austin Romine obviously gets one of those spots as the backup catcher, and, as it stands, Brett Gardner would be the odd-man out in the outfield, which relegates him to the bench.
That leaves two spots for three guys--Neil Walker, Adeiny Hechavarria and Greg Bird. I think it's safe to say Walker would make the team. He's been with the Yankees all year, is versatile, and is a switch-hitter. He's also had some clutch moments, which leads me to believe he'd be a lock.
The Hechavarria-Bird decision is a complicated one, though. Bird has lost his job as the starting first baseman. In fact, he barely even plays. And when he does, he either strikes out or grounds into a double play. Plus, he can only play first base. Hechavarria, meanwhile, is a very good defender who can play both positions on the left side of the infield. Walker can also play second and third, though, and Gleyber can shift over to short, so you really don't need both Walker and Hechavarria in that respect. And the main reason they got Hechavarria in the first place was to give them an everyday shortstop while Didi was on the DL.
Well, we might end up seeing that situation happen again. Fate might've made that decision for them. Because Didi Gregorius is currently on the shelf. He says he'll be fine for the playoffs, but it seems like too much of a risk not to include Hechavarria on the roster if Gregorius may not be 100 percent. Now the question becomes whether you take the chance Didi can play and put him on the roster or you hold him out and go with Bird, at least for the Division Series.
For the Wild Card Game, this isn't a problem, since Hechavaria/Bird can take Sabathia's not-needed roster spot. I'm actually inclined to think either Ronald Torreyes or Tyler Wade will also be on the Wild Card Game roster as an extra bench guy, since you only need so many bullpen guys in a one-game playoff.
Speaking of the bullpen guys, we know six of the eight relievers who'll be on the postseason roster--Aroldis Chapman (who may or may not be closing games again by that point), Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Zach Britton, Chad Green and Jonathan Holder. It also seems likely that Lance Lynn will be the starter that gets sent to the bullpen for the playoffs, so that's seven.
As for the last spot in the bullpen, that looks like a choice between Tommy Kahnle and A.J. Cole, neither of whom has been very effective recently. I'm not including Sonny Gray as an option, since I think even he knows he has no shot at making the playoff roster.
My initial thought is that Cole would get the last bullpen spot, but, if Lynn is serving as the long man, that reduces the need for an innings-eater. Plus, Cole hasn't just been ineffective recently. He's been outright bad. "Outright bad" is also how you can describe much of Kahnle's season, a lot of which was spent in Triple-A, though. However, he was on the team last year, so he's accustomed to pitching those high-leverage postseason innings. And when Kahnle's on, he's very tough to hit. If it were me, Kahnle would get the nod. Either way, either Kahnle or Cole will be the last guy in the bullpen.
Finally, there's the question of the starting pitchers. Tanaka has been the Yankees' best starter for much of September, but Happ has been just as effective, and Severino has started to flash his early-season form recently. He didn't get out of the first inning in last year's Wild Card Game, though, so that's another thing worth considering.
Personally, I think I'd go with Happ. Next Wednesday will be his regular day in the rotation, so you don't have to finagle things to get anybody extra rest (although, I think it's highly unlikely this weekend's series in Fenway will be little more than glorified Spring Training for both teams). Although, one of the reasons they got Happ was his success against the Red Sox, so I can see him being held for Game 1 of the Division Series so that he can start twice against Boston, leaving Tanaka to start the Wild Card Game against Oakland.
Whoever starts the Wild Card Game is important. Because he wouldn't be able to start again until Game 3 of the Division Series at the earliest. So, if Happ starts the Wild Card Game, you've got the lefties going back-to-back at Yankee Stadium (which I actually don't think is a bad thing). I also think Tanaka can handle pitching twice against Sale in Fenway (Games 1 & 5) without batting an eye. Another reason why I say J.A. Happ pitches the Wild Card Game.
So, here's my roster for the Wild Card Game:
Pitchers-J.A. Happ (starter), Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, A.J. Cole, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Lance Lynn, David Robertson, Masahiro Tanaka
Catchers-Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine
Infielders-Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Adeiny Hechavarria, Neil Walker
Outfielders-Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner
And for the Division Series:
Pitchers-Masahiro Tanaka (Game 1), Luis Severino (Game 2), J.A. Happ (Game 3), CC Sabathia (Game 4), Dellin Betances, Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Lance Lynn, David Robertson
Catchers-Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine
Infielders-Luke Voit, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Neil Walker
Outfielders-Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner
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