Anyway, First World problems I guess. And I went on my rant about Serena being seeded yesterday, so now it's time to get down to business. Because it's time for the most prestigious tournament in tennis. It's a historic Wimbledon, too, as we celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Open Era.
On the men's side, the Big Four have combined to win the past 15 Wimbledon titles (and make 23 of the 30 appearances in the final during that span, with Andy Roddick accounting for three of the other seven). Andy Murray hasn't played since last year's Wimbledon due to a hip injury, and it just forced him to withdraw from this year's Championships. So, the Big Four is down to a Big Three.
That shouldn't matter too much, though. Because Federer and Nadal enter Wimbledon as the clear favorites. Roger sat out the French Open last year to prepare for Wimbledon, and it paid off with his eighth Wimbledon title. He took the same approach this year (why waste your energy in Paris when you're just gonna lose to Nadal anyway?), which only helps his chances to repeat.
Roger's gotten smarter in his old age (full disclosure, we're actually the same age). By not playing the clay court season, he's not putting that extra toll on his body. And his game has always been better suited to Wimbledon than anywhere else (he's won eight titles for a reason). Nadal knows that, too. Which is why Federer was seeded No. 1 and goes into the tournament as the favorite.
And, just like the French Open was Rafa vs. the Field, I think this Wimbledon will be a case of Roger vs. the Field. It's not the same guarantee that Nadal is in Paris, but it'll be a major upset if Federer loses before the semifinals, if at all. Marin Cilic, his final opponent last year and at this year's Australian Open, would be his semifinal opponent, but most of the players who can challenge Federer are in the bottom half of the draw, which also plays to his advantage.
Nadal hasn't gotten past the fourth round here since 2011, and he's lost to some pretty random people along the way thru the years. So, yes, it would be a surprise to see him make a deep run. Especially with Del Potro awaiting in the quarters (assuming he gets there) and possible semifinal matchup with either Djokovic or Alexander Zverev (who may be ready for his breakout Grand Slam).
I also like John Isner's draw and think this might finally be his chance to go far in a Major. Isner is the perfect grass court player, but he always plays a long match (this is the eighth anniversary of 70-68) that takes a lot out of him and kills him moving forward. But if he can avoid that, a semifinal against Federer definitely seems possible.
No one's knocking Roger off his perch, though. He defends a Wimbledon title for the first time since his five in a row from 2003-07 and earns career Grand Slam title No. 21.
At the French Open, everyone was pretty confident with their picks. Nadal on the men's side, no clue on the women's side. That's no different heading into Wimbledon. Garbine Muguruza is the defending champion, but you've got so many former champs and legitimate contenders in the field that it's completely wide open.
Both Williams sisters are in the bottom half of the draw, which has a very American feel (and, conveniently, will play on the 4th of July). Sloane Stephens returned from injury at Wimbledon last year. She lost in the first round, then won the US Open and made the French Open final. She's seeded fourth and has all the goods to make another final run here. That is, if she can get by Venus, Serena and Madison Keys, who are all looming.
Serena ended up with a pretty good draw, so, if her health is there, a deep run doesn't seem out of the question. After she withdrew from the French Open mid-tournament with a shoulder injury, though, you have to legitimately wonder if she can make it through seven matches, though. There's also the very real possibility that No. 2 Caroline Wozniacki might actually do something at Wimbledon for the first time in her career. Woz is a different player since finally winning that first Grand Slam title.
Speaking of winning a first Grand Slam title, world No. 1 Simona Halep has also gotten that monkey off her back. Her game isn't suited great for the grass courts, but her draw is pretty favorable. Although, she'll have to deal with British favorite Johanna Konta in the fourth round before a potential quarterfinal matchup with Maria Sharapova, assuming Sharapova beats two-time champ Petra Kvitova. Maria hasn't been here in two years, but made the semis in her last appearance in 2015. And, of course, won the title in 2004 (which, as is pointed out repeatedly, is still her only win over Serena).
Muguruza, meanwhile, has a decent looking draw herself. She does have two former finalists (Eugenie Bouchard, Angelique Kerber) in her quarter, but Bouchard had to qualify and Kerber, despite being seeded 11th, has a much trickier road and could be out of gas by the time she faces Muguruza. She's a former No. 1 and two-time Grand Slam champion, though, so don't count her out totally.
There are so many women you can see making a deep run, but you can also see almost all of them crashing out early, too, which makes picking a winner even more difficult. But, if I had to pick somebody, I'll say Muguruza defends her title by beating Stephens in the final. Whether that's done before the World Cup third-place game starts is a completely different issue.
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