We're less than a month away from the start of Spring Training. Yet most of the biggest free agent names available this offseason remain unsigned. The Hot Stove has been anything but. Which either means we're going to see a pretty active next couple of weeks or there will be some high-priced, good talent likely available for bargain prices as Spring Training begins.
There are a lot of possible reasons for this. A lot of people have blamed the new luxury tax penalties, which kick in for the first time this season. It's also been theorized that nobody wants to spend money this offseason because the 2018-19 free agent class, highlighted by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and possibly Clayton Kershaw, has the potential to be epic.
The trade market has also been incredibly active. In fact, most of the biggest names to move have been moved via the trade route. The Marlins have traded every player on their team that you've ever heard of, which Christian Yelich likely to join them before the season starts. The Giants have improved dramatically by adding Evan Longoria (Rays) and Andrew McCutchen (Pirates) via trade, and let's not forget Pittsburgh also traded ace Gerrit Cole to Houston, which will certainly help the Astros in their bid to repeat.
But there's still plenty of top talent to be had this offseason. Talent that's almost too good. And you've got to think that once one player signs, all of the other dominoes will start to fall. But where? That's the $60 million over four years question.
According to MLB.com, these are the top seven remaining free agents. Here are some places that make sense for each, and where I think they'll land.
Eric Hosmer: Frankly, I'm shocked Hosmer isn't signed yet. Probably because anybody who's interested in Hosmer wants to make a run at Machado next year. I've heard San Diego mentioned, and I think he'd be a great fit in Boston, but I don't know if the Red Sox have shown even any interest. Which means he could end up staying in Kansas City. Seeing as he's the Royals' best player since George Brett, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. The Royals spend more than they normally would to keep him.
Yu Darvish: This one I'm surprised by, too. That World Series breakdown had to have had something to do with it. Teams in need of a starter are likely weighing their options between the two main choices--Darvish and Jake Arriets. So it's not surprising that both of their former teams, the Dodgers and Cubs, are linked to both. Darvish has also evidently talking about a reunion with Texas, too. But, the Angels have already landed one high-profile Japanese pitcher. If they want to make more of a splash, they'll bring in Darvish too.
J.D. Martinez: J.D. Martinez is the key guy. He's the one everybody else is waiting for. Because Martinez will likely set the market value. The Red Sox are the team that's been linked with Martinez the most, and they'll throw enough money at him that it makes sense he'll end up in Boston. I'm not sure how he fits in with the Red Sox, though. Their outfield is full and Hanley Ramirez is their DH. So where are you putting Martinez?
Jake Arrieta: A reunion with the Cubs doesn't seem completely out of the question. But the prevailing thought is that Arrieta will be pitching elsewhere in 2018. And, since I'm not sure Darvish stays in LA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dodgers make a worthwhile offer and make Arrieta their No. 2 behind Kershaw, which is something they really haven't had since Zack Greinke. Of course, they need to be careful, though. Because you know it's gonna cost them a fortune to keep Kershaw.
Lorenzo Cain: Cain's in a tough spot. Because every team he's been linked to or makes sense for him has already traded for a center fielder. Cain is too good to still be unsigned, though. Again, once Martinez signs, somebody will settle on Cain as a second choice. Can you just imagine him in Texas?
Mike Moustakas: Sometime after the Winter Meetings, I saw something on ESPN.com suggesting Moustakas would be an excellent fit with the Yankees. I hadn't thought about it, but the more I read the article, the more sense it made. Alas, I don't see it happening, though. The Yankees are keeping third base free for Machado. Which means Moustakas will likely end up elsewhere. San Francisco was an option, but it no longer is because of the Longoria trade. How about St. Louis?
Todd Frazier: After trading Starlin Castro to the Marlins and Chase Headley back to the Padres, the Yankees have openings at both second and third. Gleyber Torres is probably going to fill one, but they'll get a veteran to fill the other. And bringing Frazier back on a one-year deal isn't that bad of an option. He may want a multi-year contract and can probably get one elsewhere, but I can see him returning to the Yankees, potentially having a good season, and hitting the market again next year. It makes sense for all parties involved for that scenario to play out.
Whether or not each of these players finds a new home (or the same home) before Spring Training remains to be seen. But one thing is pretty certain. They'll all catch on somewhere. And it'll be before Opening Day.
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