After some of the most anticlimactic playoff races in Major League history, we're primed for what I think will be a really competitive postseason. These are clearly the 10 best teams in baseball, and I can reasonably see six of them in the World Series.
It's also worth noting that there were 10 teams that had a winning record on the road this season. Nine of them made the playoffs and the 10th, the Yankees, went 40-41. What's the moral of the story here? You win on the road, you're in pretty good shape.
That stat about road records could be especially relevant this year, which marks the first time that teh team with the best record gets World Series home field. The interesting thing about that is it doesn't matter if one team's a wild card and the other isn't. Of course, that will only matter if the pennant winners are the Diamondbacks and Red Sox, but I'm curious to see how that will affect strategy, if at all, when setting up pitching rotations, etc.
Normally I wait until after the wild card games to make my predictions, but I feel confident enough in the Yankees and Diamondbacks to pencil them in as the winners. Of course, the wild card game has actually been won more frequently by the road team, but the Yankees and Diamodbacks are far superior to the Twins and Rockies.
The fact that the Yankees have beaten the Twins a lot in the playoffs has nothing to do with why I like them in the AL Wild Card Game, either. Unlike the last time they were in the Wild Card Game and lost to Dallas Keuchel, the Yankees are on a roll right now. They were outstanding in September (including a sweep of the Twins two weeks ago) and certainly look to be peaking at the right time. There's also the big difference of not going against that big-time ace pitcher, which has been the difference in so many Wild Card Games in the past. Arizona will have that in Zack Greinke. That's enough for me.
So, that gives us Yankees-Indians and Diamondbacks-Dodgers to go along with the two series we already knew--Astros-Red Sox and Nationals-Cubs.
Last night on MLB Network, Harold Reynolds said that he can see Yankees-Indians would be the best Division Series matchup. (For the record, he said Cleveland would sweep Minnesota if the Twins win the Wild Card Game, and I agree with that). Yankees-Indians could go either way, and you can definitely see either team sweeping, too. Cleveland swept a series at Yankee Stadium at the beginning of their winning streak in late August, and they might be better than last year's team that lost the World Series. The Yankees are the worst possible matchup for them, though, and if they get the type of pitching they got in September, this is an even matchup. However, I don't see the Yankees beating Corey Kluber twice, which would mean they'd need to win each of the other three games. I'm just not sure that happens. And, with Kluber pitching Game 5 in Cleveland, I'm going to say Indians in five.
Houston and Boston just played each other. They ended the series with a four-game set at Fenway, and the Astros won three of those games. Both teams went all out since the Astros were playing for home field and Boston was playing for the division. And, frankly, Houston was simply the better team. In fact, the Astros once again look like they did in April and May. Especially now that they have Justin Verlander. Ever since the trade, Houston has gotten its mojo back. Boston may take one game, but I don't see them beating the Astros three times, especially since Sale's going against Verlander, and Houston has the pitching advantage in every other matchup. I'll give the Red Sox one, but I think it'll be Houston in four.
As dominant as the Dodgers were for most of the season, there were two teams that ended up with a winning record against them--Arizona and Colorado. Which means the Dodgers have to worry about whichever NL West rival they end up playing. It's not going to be the walkover many would've expected. However, with that being said, it seems highly unlikely the Dodgers will lose this series. They seem to have straightened themselves out after that really bad string in early September, and they've had a singular focus all season. They didn't care about the wins record. They care about getting to the World Series. Now is when it really matters. And let's not forget they've got Clayton Kershaw, and he'll get to start at home twice, which is something he's never done in a playoff series. Arizona, meanwhile, would only be able to use Greinke once. That's too much for Arizona to overcome. Dodgers in four.
Nationals-Cubs. Oh man, this one just got a lot more interesting. Max Scherzer says he's fine to start Game 2, which would keep him on normal rest to start Game 5. Washington's backup Game 1 option of Stephen Strasburg isn't exactly a bad one, either. But their success really depends on the health of both Scherzer and Bryce Harper. And let's not forget, the Nationals have never won a playoff series, something they badly want to change. Let's not forget something else, though. The Cubs are the defending World Series Champions, and they played like it over the second half of the season. Yet they're the underdogs heading into the playoffs, and they're embracing that role. Are they as good as they were last year? Probably not. Does that matter? Also probably not. They used their pitching depth to win the World Series last year, and that depth could carry them again in this series. But if Scherzer's healthy, I'm not sure they beat him twice. Nationals in five.
We'll revisit things once we move on to the LCS, but my matchups are the predictable ones--Indians vs. Astros and Dodgers vs. Nationals. I think Houston beats Cleveland for the AL pennant, and somebody has to win Dodgers-Nationals and finally get to the World Series. I'll say that's the Dodgers, who then finish the job and beat the Astros in a great World Series.
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