Open Season

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have met 37 times, including 12 matchups at Grand Slams.  But never at the US Open.  It's the dream matchup that many tennis fans have been waiting years for, and if it's ever going to happen, this might be the year.  Because Nadal and Federer would've been the two biggest favorites at Flushing Meadows regardless of the competition.  And that favorite status became even larger with Djokovic, Murray and Wawrinka (as well as 2014 finalist Kei Nishikori) all missing the tournament due to injury.

Murray was going to play.  He was placed in the draw as the No. 2 seed, and his withdrawal created an interesting situation.  Roger and Rafa are the top two players in the field, but they're in the same half of the draw (meaning that dream matchup could only happen in the semifinals).  Meanwhile, No. 4 Alexander Zverev and No. 5 Marin Cilic are both on the bottom half.  Which means the bottom half of the draw is wide open, and somebody's gonna take advantage and reach a US Open final.

And if there was ever a chance for us to finally see an American man back in a Grand Slam final, this might be it.  Because the top three American players are all in that Murray-less bottom half, and it's not that much of a stretch to see them going through each other on the way to the semis.  No. 10 John Isner and No. 13 Jack Sock were already in the same section of the draw...then No. 17 Sam Querrey joined them when they rearranged the draw after Murray withdrew.  So, it's conceivable that three of the four players in the round of 16 from that section of the draw could be American.  That would be huge.  Especially at the US Open.

The Americans obviously benefited the most from Murray's withdrawal, but there are plenty of others happy they're in the bottom half.  Marin Cilic won the title here three years ago and made the final at Wimbledon.  He probably would've been the favorite on the bottom half even if Murray was there.  Now that's definitely the case.  But eighth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who's always had trouble against Murray, also benefits now that he's got a potential quarterfinal against Cilic instead.

Meanwhile, don't just assume because they're the top two players in the world again that we're automatically getting that Federer-Nadal semi next Friday (talk about a hot ticket if it does happen).  Because Nadal has a history of early exits at the US Open...and the top half is loaded.

Nadal has already go on record saying he doesn't want to play Federer, presumably because it would be in a semi instead of the final and they'd almost certainly wear each other out.  But in order to get there, he'll first have to get past either Fabio Fognini (who beat him here two years ago) or Tomas Berdych, then potentially Grigor Dimitrov (the winner last week in Cincinnati) in the quarters.  Roger, meanwhile, would have to get through Nick Kyrgios (who lost to Dimitrov in Cincinnati) or Juan Martin Del Potro, the man who ended his run of five straight US Open titles in the 2009 final.

Nevertheless, Federer enters the tournament as the favorite.  Even Nadal would admit that.  Nadal may currently be No. 1 (for the record, Federer is five points behind Murray for No. 2), but it's Roger who's 2-for-2 in Grand Slams this year.  And it's Roger who's the better hard court player.  Nadal's style usually works against him at the US Open, although I don't think it'll be a no-name who beats him this year.  I do see him losing before the Federer matchup, however.

I've got Federer beating Dimitrov in one semi, with Querrey reaching his second consecutive Grand Slam semifinal and losing to Cilic.  And just like at Wimbledon, Roger beats Cilic in the final for his first US Open title since 2008 (it's hard to believe it's been nearly 10 years since he's won here), lucky No. 20 overall, and the No. 1 ranking.  (Since Federer didn't play last year and has no points to defend, a deep run pretty much guarantees he'll get to No. 1 unless Nadal wins the title.)

On the women's side, it's most definitely wide open.  Last year's finalist Karolina Pliskova enters the US Open as No. 1, while last year's champion Angelique Kerber has struggled all year and is seeded only sixth.  The best player in the world right now, in fact, might be Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza.  She comes in at No. 3 and went semis, quarters, win at her three US Open Series events.  Muguruza's definitely a threat for the title.

This might finally be Caroline Wozniacki's chance to break through, too.  Woz definitely wants to shed that "Best Player Never to Win a Slam" label (although, a lot of women have that label since Serena seemingly wins them all), and the US Open has always been her best one.  She's made the finals here twice and the semis three other times, compared to a grand total of one semifinal appearance at the other three Slams combined (and that was way back in 2011).  And, honestly, I think she's got a great shot this year.  Except, of course, she's got a potential quarterfinal matchup against Muguruza.  The winner of that match is my pick for the title.

For all the star power that this US Open is lacking with the absence of so many top men, as well as the extremely pregnant Serena Williams, it gets some back with Maria Sharapova's return to Grand Slam tennis.  We all know the story with Maria's suspension and the French Open's refusal to give her a wild card.  Then she missed Wimbledon qualifying with an injury.  Well, the USTA had no such reservations about giving her a wild card, and she'll play her first Grand Slam tournament in 19 months.

You already knew Sharapova was getting a night match in the first round.  That was further guaranteed when she was drawn against No. 2 seed Simona Halep in the marquee matchup of the entire first round.  This is no picnic for Halep, and the winner seems poised for a deep run.

Woz, Muguruza and Maria are just three of the intriguing names on the bottom half of the women's draw.  Incredibly, all four Wimbledon semifinalists are there.  Venus Williams has been to a pair of Grand Slam finals this year and Jo Konta is having the best year of her career (for the record 31st-seed Magdalena Rybarikova was the other semifinalist).  Sloane Stephens is also healthy and resurgent.  I can see any of a handful of names coming out of the bottom half.

As for her opponent in the final, I think we might see that semifinal rematch of last year's final between Pliskova and Kerber.  Americans Madison Keys and Coco Vandeweghe are also positioned well and could surprise, while French Open champ Jelena Ostapenko will likely be a tough out, as well.  But if Pliskova wants to show that she deserves to be No. 1, this is her chance.  Look for her to make a statement and get back to the final.

My women's semifinals are Pliskova vs. Kerber and Wozniacki vs. Konta (although Mugurza beating Wozniacki and taking that spot isn't too far of a stretch).  I've got Pliskova vs. Wozniacki in the final, with Woz finally getting that first US Open title.