They moved the start of Wimbledon back a week this year, which was very confusing last weekend when I was looking for the draw. I'm assuming that's a permanent change. So instead of being the last week in June and first week in July, the tournament is now the first two weeks in July, meaning there's the potential of a whole bunch of Americans playing on the 4th every year.
This Wimbledon is shaping up to be a great one, too. That's because, for the first time since 2014, the Big Four are the top four seeds in the men's tournament. Murray's No. 1 and the defending champion, Nadal has been arguably the best player on tour this year, and a resurgent Roger skipped the French so he could prepare for this tournament. As odd as it is to say, Djokovic is the one who's struggling. After his early loss at the French, he was contemplating taking some time off, which I think he will after Wimbledon.
And of the four, Djokovic does seem the most vulnerable. He doesn't have an easy draw, starting with Juan Martin Del Potro, who's always a threat as long as he's healthy. Then there's Tomas Berdych, one of two active players outside the Big Four who's actually been to a Wimbledon final, lying in wait for the winner of that one in the quarters.
Which isn't to say the others have it easy. For Roger to hoist his record eighth Wimbledon trophy, he'll likely have to beat the guy who beat him in last year's semis--Milos Raonic. But that's exactly why Federer sat out the French Open. He might've won this year's Australian Open, but he knows that this is still his best tournament. And if vintage Roger shows up, it's not hard to picture him winning the title for the first time in five years.
In fact, I've got to say Federer is my slight favorite on the men's side. He wanted to make sure he was healthy for the grass court season, which he is. As evidence by his easy title in Halle. The other three, meanwhile, all have questions. With Djokovic it's mental. Murray's health is a concern. And will Nadal's body hold up to play seven best-of-five matches less than a month after winning his 10th French Open?
It's been 15 years since Lleyton Hewitt won the title. He's the last person outside of the Big Four to do so. In fact, of the 28 Wimbledon finalists since then, 25 of them have been either the Big Four or Andy Roddick. Don't expect that to change this year. They've dominated tennis for the last decade and a half for a reason. I'm gonna say Federer over Murray in the final, but another Roger-Rafa classic doesn't seem out of the question at all.
On the women's side, I think we're in for a tournament as unpredictable as the French Open was, although the likelihood of the out-of-nowhere champion is probably less likely. Although, we probably will see a first-time Wimbledon champion. That's because the only former winners in the field are Venus Williams and Petra Kvitova, who are on the same side of the bracket and would potentially meet in a semifinal. Unlike the men, though, there are a number of women who've lost the Wimbledon final in recent years and could conceivably get back there.
The No. 1 ranking is also at stake. Current No. 1 Angelique Kerber lost to Serena in the final last year and I think is in the best position to get back, her first-round loss at the French notwithstanding. If Kerber doesn't get back to the final, she'll lose the No. 1 ranking. No. 2 Simona Halep can snag it, but she'll have to get to the semis, which I think might be a tall order. Otherwise, the No. 1 ranking goes to Karolina Pliskova, who doesn't seem like much of a threat to win the title.
So who are threats to win the women's title? Well, there's Kerber. And Kvitova. And Venus. But I also like Caroline Wozniacki's chances. Woz has been playing great all year and was one of the few top players who actually had a good French Open. She still has that stigma of never having won a Slam (or even reaching a final somewhere other than the US Open), but I really think that could change this year.
Then there's No. 6 Johanna Konta, the highest-seeded British woman since Virginia Wade in 1977. That just happens to be the year Wade won her only Wimbledon title, which is still the last for a British woman (they really haven't even been close since then). Can Konta make some history of her own 40 years later? Or will the pressure get to her? Don't forget, she'd never won a Wimbledon match before last year, and the only Grand Slam where she's made a deep run is the Australian Open. I'm not saying she won't do it. But the Brits shouldn't expect to see one of their own winning the women's title just yet.
Besides, Konta's on the Kvitova/Venus side of the bracket, along with Halep. There are also two unseeded women who have potential to make some serious noise on the bottom half of the draw. One is Eugenie Bouchard, the 2014 runner-up who's really struggled since then. The other is Victoria Azarenka. This is Vika's first Grand Slam since giving birth, and I'm curious to see what her fitness level is at. She's probably not in a position to win, but she could definitely give some players headaches.
Some experts have predicted that this could be a breakout tournament for the American women, and I can see why. It's not just Venus Williams. There's also Madison Keys, Coco Vandeweghe and Bethanie Mattek-Sands to name just a few. Obviously Wimbledon has been Serena's domain for a while, but there's definitely cause to be excited about the American chances even with her out. However, while I think one or more of them could go on a deep run, I doubt it will end with a title.
Instead, I've gotta like Kerber, last year's finalist, and Kvitova, the two-time champion. I see them defeating Wozniacki and Venus Williams to get to the final, where Kerber wins her third Grand Slam title and first Wimbledon to hold on to her No. 1 ranking.
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