We know one thing about the 2017 Confederations Cup. For the first time since 2003, Brazil will not win. In fact, the Brazilians aren't even in it. We also have three teams from the same confederation for the first time, as the defending World Cup Champions (Germany) and host nation (Russia) are both from Europe, and they're joined by the European "champions" Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal.
Portugal and Russia are two of the three nations making their Confederations Cup debuts. The third is Chile, which has shown its place among world soccer's elite with its back-to-back Copa America victories. And because of that Chilean success, we've got a major international soccer tournament without either of South America's big guns. There are also two teams from Oceania, with Australia representing Asia for the first time. Then there's Mexico, which seemingly alternates the CONCACAF berth with the United States, and Cameroon, as Russia hosts the quadrennial World Cup tune-up event.
And, honestly, I have no idea who's going to win. On paper, you'd probably have to look at Portugal and Germany as the favorites. Although, Chile has proven to be the top team in South America two years in a row. They've got another statement to make. They want to show that they're the team to beat when all of the world's best come together next summer in Russia. A long run at the Confederations Cup will prove Chile's status among the world's elite teams.
Chile and Germany should be the two teams to advance out of Group B. We haven't heard much from the Germans since their World Cup victory three years ago, but you know that as one of the true brand names in international soccer, they're gonna show up to play. Especially in a group where they should easily qualify. The Chileans have a chance to knock them off and finish atop the group, though.
If either of the other teams stands a chance to advance out of Group B, I'd put Australia's chances as slightly better than Cameroon's. Either way, it'll take either a miracle or a royal screw up on the part of one of those top two squads for Australia or Cameroon to have a chance at upsetting that Germany-Chile combination from reaching the semifinals.
In Group A, meanwhile, the possibilities are endless. Russia's the seed as the hosts, but Portugal is the best team in a fairly balanced group. Mexico could easily take that second spot ahead of Russia, and New Zealand is actually than their Oceania-deflated world ranking of 110. I don't think the All Whites will advance, and I doubt they'll win a game. But they'll represent Oceania much better than Tahiti did by getting blown out three times in 2013.
For Pretty Boy and Co., not showing up until the medal round isn't an option this time. With no third-place finishers advancing, three draws aren't gonna do it. Especially since there's no easy bracket to benefit from.
Anyway, the result of that Portugal-Mexico game on matchday 1 could really go a long way towards determining the Group A standings. Assuming Portugal, which on paper is the best team, advances, that leaves Mexico and Russia fighting for the second spot. That could be a winner-take-all contest in Kazan on the final day of group play. Although, goal differential will almost certainly come into play. Since I don't think all three teams will simply beat up on New Zealand.
I've gotta like Mexico for that second spot out of Group A, though. Simply put, you don't know what you're gonna get from the Russians. Obviously since they're hosting the World Cup, they haven't had to play in any qualifying games. So this is the only real chance they're going to have against the other side's "A" squad. And the "A" squads they're going to face include the most famous player on the planet and a team currently leading its confederation in World Cup qualifying. I just don't think they stack up against both of them.
My semifinal matchups are Germany-Mexico and, in what I see as a potential game of the tournament, Portugal-Chile. As I've already said about Germany, it doesn't matter how well they're playing or what tournament it is. You know they're going to be there at the end. And in this case, they'll be in the final. Where I see them playing a Chile team that may finally start getting some of the respect it deserves by beating a non-American opponent.
So that leaves us with a Germany-Chile final in St. Petersburg on July 2. Having witnessed them firsthand throughout last summer's Copa America Centenario, I'm a believer in the Chileans. They weren't supposed to beat Argentina in either of the last two Copa finals. They did. Is there any reason not to think they'll do the same thing against the defending World Cup champs? Chile keeps the Confederations Cup in South America.
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