An American Shocker

Wichita State is moving from the Missouri Valley Conference to the American next season.  It's a great move for the Shockers, who've been NCAA Tournament regulars over the past few years, but have been frequently underseeded, including this season when they were inexplicably given a 10-seed.  Even when they were undefeated and got a No. 1 seed a few years ago, they had to play Kentucky (which went to the National Championship Game) in the second round.

Make no mistake.  This is purely a basketball move.  Whereas most changes in conference affiliation over the past 10 years have been with football in mind, this one is all about basketball.  Wichita State is doing this because of basketball, and it's because of basketball that they're able to do it.

They were stuck in an incredibly awkward situation where they were the top dog in a mid-major league (one of the better ones, I might add), which usually ended up "hurting" them in the long run.  Their RPI wasn't very strong because of their league, and they couldn't get any games against big-time opponents because nobody wanted to play them.  It was an incredible catch-22, and you have to think it's one of the primary reasons why Wichita State, despite a Final Four run in 2013 and a No. 1 seed a year later, was so dramatically underseeded.  Simply put, there was no longer any benefit to being in the Missouri Valley Conference.

For them, going to the American makes a lot of sense.  As we all know, the American is still a fairly young conference, and it was only formed when the Big East split in two.  It's also a conference that fears for its stability.  UConn is their marquee program, but they don't want to be there.  Houston is chomping at the bit to join the Big 12, and Cincinnati would likely prefer to be elsewhere, too.  If any of those teams were to leave, Wichita State would immediately become the American's top dog.  And since they don't have football, there's no chance they'd try to leave.

But for a program like Wichita State, the American is an absolute upgrade.  Instead of playing home-and-homes with Bradley, Drake and Loyola Chicago, now they'll be playing conference games against teams like UConn and Cincinnati and SMU.  The American isn't the strongest of leagues.  But it has been a multi-bid league every year of its existence.  UConn's won a National Championship, SMU has become a big time program, and Central Florida made the semifinals of the NIT this season.  The Shockers' strength of schedule is immediately going to go up.  And now they're in a position where they don't have to worry about needing to win the league to get in.

This is obviously a blow to the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lost Creighton to the Big East during the last round of conference realignment, and now they lose their other headliner to the American.  Now the top programs in the Missouri Valley, which has such a great history, are probably Northern Iowa and Illinois State.  It's still going to be a good, very competitive mid-major conference.  But the days of the Missouri Valley regularly being in the mix for multiple at-large bids appear to be over.

I'm not saying the MVC is destined to become a one-bid league forever.  It just seems like the at-large bids will be far less frequent.  And they'll also be looking at 13- or 14- or maybe even 15-seeds now.  Will they recover?  Probably.  But the loss of the best team is certainly a blow.

How long the MVC is down really might depend on what school replaces Wichita State.  Not counting Wichita State, there are currently nine schools in the MVC, which is a number they can easily make-do with in 2017-18 if they need to.  But you've gotta figure they're going to move swiftly trying to find a new member that may not be of Wichita State's caliber, but will hopefully be close enough.  And with the MVC AD's set to meet in St. Louis this weekend, you'd have to think that's what they're going to talk about.

The two schools I've heard mentioned as their potential targets are Valparaiso and Murray State.  Murray State has been one of the top programs in the Ohio Valley Conference for the last couple of years, but isn't remotely close to the brand name Valparaiso is.  To me it's a no-brainer for both the league and the program that Valparaiso should be Wichita State's replacement in the Missouri Valley Conference.

Valparaiso has its own NCAA Tournament history, so it would give the MVC another relevant name.  It's also one that would be competitive in men's basketball, which I think is equally important when you're losing your best team.  Likewise, they're a fit geographically.  Valpo is in Indiana, but it's close to Chicago, which makes flying in very easy for the schools that aren't close enough to bus.

Most importantly, though, for Valparaiso, going from the Horizon League to the Missouri Valley would be an upgrade.  Wichita State got out because being in the MVC was no longer benefiting them.  It's the exact opposite for Valpo.  Moving to the MVC would be a great benefit to their program.

Don't be surprised when the Missouri Valley Conference announces its adding Valparaiso.  It makes total sense.  And it's a perfect fit.  Valpo needs the Missouri Valley as much as the Missouri Valley needs Valpo.  Just like Wichita State and the American needed each other.