Free Agent Landing Places

Now that the World Series is over and the Cubs are the champions for the first time in 108 years, it's time to start thinking about how we're going to get our baseball fix over the next four months until pitchers & catchers report.  Fortunately there's this wonderful thing called the Hot Stove league.

There were already a number of marquee names that we knew were going to be free agents, and today plenty more were added when they weren't granted a qualifying offer by their current team.  We've also had a few trades already, but those won't really heat up until the Winter Meetings in December.

While we're still weeks away from finding out where most of the free agents are going (it's also worth pointing out that the CBA expires on December 1, so negotiating the new one will likely take up much of the owners' and the union's time until then).  But that doesn't mean we can't speculate.  And unlike last year, there are a lot of big names that are likely going to be wearing new uniforms next season.

Jose Bautista: It's unlikely that Bautista's going to return to Toronto.  So where does he go?  I have a hunch he'll stay in the AL where he can DH.  Texas is a really interesting option for him.  Since they're unlikely to keep Carlos Beltran, the Rangers could use a DH.  But considering Bautista's history with Texas, I don't think the Rangers (or their fans) would welcome him with open arms.  Rather, I think it's more likely he stays in the AL East and ends up in Boston.

Mike Napoli: I've gotta admit, I was surprised the Indians didn't make a qualifying offer to Napoli, if only to get the draft pick compensation.  Now he's free to go anywhere and the Indians will get nothing in return (I'm assuming their plan is to have Santana play first).  That puts Napoli back on the open market, where he'll draw plenty of interest from AL teams.  I think Toronto will give him a serious look as a cheaper option than Bautista/Encarnacion.  A reunion with the Rangers isn't out of the question, either.

Dexter Fowler: This might be the most interesting name on the free agent market.  Fowler came back to Chicago on a one-year deal this season, and the Cubs don't win the World Series without him.  He's an incredibly valuable member of that team, but I don't think they have a place to put him.  Schwarber, Zobrist and Baez all have to play, and the only way that happens is if they let Fowler leave and move Heyward to center.  If that happens, Fowler will have plenty of suitors.  He probably stays in the National League.  He'd be a really good fit in San Francisco.

Edwin Encarnacion: Encarnacion re-signing with Toronto isn't completely out of the question.  It's really a matter of whether or not the Blue Jays want to pay him the amount he's going to command from other teams.  He's an interesting one because he can easily be either a first baseman or a DH, which means he can go pretty much anywhere.  Should the Blue Jays go for the cheaper option of Napoli, I can easily see Encarnacion in Texas.

Yoenis Cespedes: A lot of people have asked me where I think Cespedes is going to end up.  I was actually surprised by the question.  Because I think it's highly unlikely Cespedes leaves the Mets.  Yes, he opted out of his four-year deal after one season.  I'm not reading too much into that, though.  If he wanted to leave, he would've done it last year when he had more value.

Matt Wieters: He can still catch, but probably can't everyday, so he's gonna need to go to an AL team where he can DH sometimes.  I actually think Cleveland could be an option here.  Or the Tigers, but they're looking to shed salary rather than add it, so I'd be really surprised to see Detroit make a big free agent run at anybody.

Carlos Beltran: We're past the point where Carlos Beltran has any value as an outfielder.  That limits his value.  But he can still hit, so the DH market will be all over him.  The Angels gave Albert plenty of time at DH last year.  Does he move back to first full-time to make room for Beltran at DH?  If not the Angels, there are plenty of remaining options.  Like Toronto, Kansas City and the White Sox.

Angel Pagan: Where others end up could dictate where Pagan goes.  He'll probably carry a slightly smaller price tag than Fowler, which likely gives him more options.  Pagan's the type of guy Detroit might make a run at, but I doubt it.  I've got it narrowed down to two: staying with the Giants or, how's this one for out of left field?, Seattle.

Justin Turner: Perhaps the most interesting guy in the free agent market.  Turner had a career-year as the Dodgers' starting third baseman, but he can play pretty much anywhere.  He's got free agent bust written all over him, but you know somebody's going to give him a ridiculous amount of money.  Will he head north to the Dodgers' archrivals?  Or will he end up in the American League with a team like the White Sox?

Kendrys Morales: Morales is a DH.  That's all he can do at this point.  So he'll have to go to an American League team.  And there are a number of American League teams that won't be interested in the type of contract he'll command.  One that might is the defending AL champion Indians, who'll have to replace Napoli's bat in the middle of the lineup somehow.

Ian Desmond: Desmond really took a risk when he took a one-year, $8 million deal from the Rangers last year.  And it paid off big time.  He went from a middle infielder to one of the best center fielders in the game.  And he's going to make him a lot of money this offseason.  In fact, he's so valuable to the Rangers, that I think Texas shells out that money to keep him right where he is.

Neil Walker: After Daniel Murphy left for Washington (and finished second in the MVP vote), the Mets made a great move by trading for Neil Walker.  Now Walker is a free agent, and it'll be interesting to see what the Mets decide to do.  My guess is they won't bring back both Walker and Cespedes, and, if they have to choose, they'll likely do what they did last year and prioritize Cespedes.  Which makes Walker available to all teams in the market for a second baseman.  Teams like the St. Louis Cardinals.

Aroldis Chapman: Only two places are realistic landing spots for Aroldis Chapman.  And he played for both teams last season.  When the Yankees traded him, it was always in the back of their minds that they could re-sign him as a free agent this offseason.  They need a reliever, and they'll definitely be willing to shell out and reunite two-thirds of No Runs DMC.  But the Cubs brought him in to win them a ring (which he did) and also fully believe they can re-sign him.  Which they can.  They're both deep-pocketed large market clubs, so it'll likely be a bidding war.

Kenley Jansen: If there's one main culprit that ended the Giants' even-year mojo, it was the bullpen.  San Francisco didn't have a closer and it showed.  Big time.  So they're going to shell out a lot of money to improve that bullpen.  As the second-best closer on the market behind Chapman, Jansen will get several big-money offers, and he'll really have his pick of teams.  I think the Giants will outbid the rest of them, though.

Mark Melancon: Melancon will be the consolation prize to whoever doesn't get Chapman or Jansen.  He's nowhere on the level of those two, but somebody who needs a closer will overpay for him.  And I'd be willing to bet that will be a mid-market team that's desperate to play with the big boys.  Like Arizona.  Or San Diego (who I think is probably going to bring Fernando Rodney back instead).

So there you have it.  That's 15 of the top free agents (you'll notice there aren't any worthwhile starting pitchers on the market, which is where trades are going to come in).  Of course, I could be way off.  But once that first domino falls, the others won't be too far behind.  That's what makes Hot Stove baseball so much fun.