I highly doubt that anyone actually thought either side would be stupid enough to let a lockout happen. This isn't the NHL, where the owners (and commissioner) view lockouts as a negotiating ploy rather than the last-resort nuclear option. The sticking points, while not trivial, certainly weren't anything that was worth having a lockout over. Especially not with billions of dollars at stake, and especially not coming off the highest-rated World Series in years.
For their part, both sides were acting as if everything was (and would continue to be) business as usual. After all, Spring Training doesn't start until February, and there was no doubt a deal would've been in place by then. But a lockout, however brief, would've put things like free agency, and even possibly next week's Winter Meetings, on hold. Those things are just as important as Spring Training and the 162 games.
There are still a lot of details that we don't know, but, on the surface, this labor deal looks really similar to the one that was about to expire. The stuff we do know is gradually trickling in, and there are a few significant changes worth mentioning.
Perhaps the two biggest things to come out of this new CBA are major wins for the players. The first is that there won't be an international draft. The owners really wanted that. The players, especially those from Latin America, were vehemently opposed. Instead, each team will have a hard cap on roster bonuses it can give to international free agents. This won't stop teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers being able to throw as much money as they want at top international players. But it does limit their spending power, which gives the smaller-market clubs an opportunity to sign them, as well.
Another big win for the players is that the "free" part has been put back in free agency. Teams will no longer receive a first-round draft pick as compensation for losing a premium free agent. Frankly, the old process didn't make much sense anyway. The whole point of free agency is that the player gets to choose what team he plays for. But because of the first-round pick attached, the old system (which will still be in place this offseason sense since free agency has already started and the ink isn't dry yet, which does make sense) limited the market on certain players. Now that's not a worry. There are still draft picks attached to free agents. But they aren't first-round picks. If you're under the luxury tax threshold, you lose a third-rounder. If you're over, you lose two picks, a second-rounder and a fifth-rounder.
Speaking of the luxury tax, it's going up. From $189 million to $195 million, then gradually to $210 million by the end of the deal. If you go over, you pay similar tax rates to what you already did. But if you go way over (cough, Dodgers, cough), that rate could be as high as 90 percent. So, basically, there's nothing different on that front. The Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Tigers were over last season, and they still would be using this new math. The only thing that's different is the amount they have to give everybody else.
The players didn't get everything they wanted, though. Rosters are staying at 25 instead of increasing to 26. They'll still expand to 40 in September, and it's not clear whether or not teams will have to declare a 25-man active roster for each game after they do, which is something a lot of people have been pushing for for years. Likewise, there are probably changes to the domestic violence and joint drug policies, which would lead you to believe means tougher penalties.
What's also unclear, although it was discussed (likely at length) is whether or not the season will start earlier. Playing 162 games in 183 days is a grind. Especially when you're flying cross country, then playing that night. At the very least, the players wanted more day games on getaway days so that they're not getting into a city at 3-4:00 in the morning, only to turn around and play a few hours later.
So, don't be surprised if they add a few days on the front end of the season so that the players get a few more off days built in. (The weather in April in a lot of cities is usually so bad anyway that giving teams more options for makeups doesn't seem like a terrible idea, either.) Starting a full week earlier might be a little much, but adding an extra weekend in front of that traditional first Monday in April Opening Day doesn't seem unrealistic. Obviously they can't change it for the upcoming season, but I'm curious to see if it'll be there on the 2018 schedule.
We'll get more details once the CBA is ratified by both the union and the owners. But we're not going to have to worry about when the deal will be signed. Instead, we'll move on to the Winter Meetings and Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic and, finally, the 2017 season knowing that we're not gonna have to worry about this again for another five years. Which makes baseball fans the biggest winners here.
