You can't say it all the time, but this year I think it truly is the case that the four best teams in football are the only ones left standing on Conference Championship weekend.
After the craziness of Wild Card Weekend, things returned to normal in the divisional round. All four games were decided by a touchdown, but the home team ended up winning each, setting up a pair of 1 vs. 2 matchups. In Denver, it'll be Brady-Manning XVII, for the fourth time in the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile in Charlotte, we've got Heisman Trophy winners meeting in a conference title game for the first time ever, which is kind of crazy if you think about it. Speaking of crazy things to think about, the NFC champion will head to San Francisco with a better record, yet the Patriots-Broncos winner will likely be the favorite.
While I'm on the topic of favorites, my Super Bowl pick at the start of the playoffs was Arizona-Denver. Nothing I saw last week gave me any reason to change that pick. I thought going in that the Cardinals were the best team, and I still think that. And I thought that having home field would make the difference for the Broncos, which I also think will be the case.
AFC: Patriots (13-4) at Broncos (13-4): Denver-Why does everyone think this is going to be a New England blowout? The way people are putting money on the Patriots, you'd think the Broncos might as well not even bother showing up. Apparently, this is going to be last year's AFC Championship Game all over again.
Well, I've got news for you. It won't be. For starters, the game is in Denver, and the Patriots are a much different team on the road in the playoffs. And everybody seems to be forgetting that the game is in Denver for a reason. The Broncos beat the Patriots during the regular season...with Brock Osweiler at quarterback...when New England was still undefeated! I don't know if it's because people are just used to seeing the Patriots win that they made the easy pick, but there isn't much of a talent gap between these teams. And you'd have to think that the Patriots won't automatically get all the calls like they do at home, too.
It's also worth noting that the Broncos didn't play that well last week, and they still found a way to win. They won't be able to get away with playing as poorly against the Patriots as they did against the Steelers. They know that. But people haven't been giving that Denver defense enough credit all season. And that Broncos defense is going to be the key to the game. New England's offense is better than the limited Pittsburgh offense Denver faced last week. They'll need to find a way to shut down Frat Boy and keep Brady under pressure. If they can get to Brady and force turnovers, the Broncos will be in business.
Is this Peyton Manning's last best chance? Probably. The Broncos offense knows they were bad last week and got away with it. They also know that can't happen again. And it probably won't. They'll bounce back in a big way.
Obviously the big story heading into the AFC Championship Game is Manning vs. Brady again. Everybody's focusing on Brady's record, but there's another stat that's worth considering. They're 2-2 against each other in the playoffs. Brady won the first two. In New England. Manning has won the last two. Both in AFC Championship Games. One in Indianapolis, and two years ago in Denver. So, in many ways, this is the rubber match. And at the end of the day, we'll see an orange-clad team headed to the Bay Area for the Super Bowl.
NFC: Cardinals (14-3) at Panthers (16-1): Arizona-With two Southern-based teams playing for the NFC title, you wouldn't have thought weather would be a factor. But the blizzard actually went as far down as Charlotte, and the Panthers had to cover the field, which also affected their preparations for the game. How much? We'll see. The Cardinals had no such problem with practice. However, how cold will it be, and will that have any impact on Arizona?
The Cardinals showed people a lot last week. Aaron Rodgers pulled off another one of his Houdini acts, only to have Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald march Arizona right down the field for the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Of course, it was a defensive lapse that put them in that position, but they actually played a pretty good game on both sides of the ball against the Packers. Overall, that was a high-quality football game played by two good teams, where the better team ended up winning.
Carolina, meanwhile, absolutely blitzed Seattle in the first quarter of their Divisional Playoff game. It was a statement made by a Panthers team that went 15-1, yet was the underdog against the two-time defending NFC champions. However, that second half Seahawks comeback has to be a source of concern. For everything the Panthers did right in building that 31-0 lead, they almost gave it all back. If they hadn't been up by as much as they were, it's very possible that they could've choked away their chance.
This game will be all about those two explosive offenses. Rather, it'll be about which underrated defense does a better job at stopping (or at least slowing down) the other offense. We all know what Cam Newton can do with his legs. We also know what Carson Palmer is able to do. I'm curious to see what kind of defensive game plans the two coaching staffs come up with. Because, as good as the offenses are, I think it's people like Dwight Freeney and Patrick Peterson and Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman that are going to determine this game.
We've got a great matchup in store here, and the winner won't deserve to be an underdog in the Super Bowl (even though they will be). For the last month or so, I've been saying that I think Arizona is the best team in football. I'm not changing my mind now. We'll see the Cardinals in San Francisco.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Season: 162-102
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