Friday, December 11, 2015

December Winners and Losers

Baseball's Winter Meetings have come to an end, and there's still plenty of wheeling and dealing to do before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.  But the Winter Meetings is traditionally where the fun always starts, and it was no different this year.  The three biggest names on the starting pitching market have found new homes (and set the price on starting pitching contracts into the stratosphere).

As teams begin to fill holes and the remaining free agents inevitably sign, we'll have a better idea of who's set to make a run in 2016.  So these rankings may be a bit premature.  But we've definitely had some winners and losers emerge from Nashville.

Winners
Cubs: This is an easy one.  They knew they needed starting pitching beyond just Arrieta and Lester.  They made a run at David Price, then, after they didn't get him, landed John Lackey instead.  But Chicago far from stopped there.  They pulled a major coup by signing Ben Zobrist to play second base, reuniting him with Joe Maddon.  And that made Starlin Castro expendable, so they flipped him to the Yankees (who filled their need for a second baseman) for Adam Warren, solidifying their bullpen.  If that wasn't enough, they signed Jason Heyward, too.  Don't be surprised if Theo Epstein isn't done.  Now that they've got Heyward, don't be surprised to see Jorge Soler flipped for even more pitching.  The Cubs are the early favorites for the National League pennant next season.

Red Sox: Boston was going to do something in free agency.  Everyone knew that.  Everyone assumed that they'd be the ones to sign David Price.  Well, everyone was right.  The Red Sox have an ace again.  But Dave Dombrowski didn't stop there.  He's been very busy in his first offseason with Boston.  Incredible coup by swinging that trade for Craig Kimbrel.  And the addition of Chris Young as a backup outfielder makes incredible sense after he had a good year-plus with the Yankees.  They still need to resolve the whole Hanley Ramirez can't play left field situation and find places for Brock Holt and Rusney Castillo to play, but I don't think they're done.  Either way, I doubt they finish last again.

Diamondbacks: Who had Zack Greinke going to Arizona?  Anybody?  Didn't think so.  Then they trade the farm to Atlanta for Shelby Miller, giving them arguably their best 1-2 since they won the World Series with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.  Of course, the price was very high.  The Diamondbacks better win now to prove these deals were worth it.  Otherwise, they'll be kicking themselves for blowing the bank on Greinke and, more importantly, trading away their entire future for Shelby Miller, who doesn't quite seem worth it.  I know Paul Goldschmidt's happy, though.  He's no longer the only guy on the team you've heard of.  (Although, I'm not sure how happy he'll remain once he takes the field in those ridiculous new uniforms.)

Mets: After they missed out on Zobrist, the Mets acted swiftly--trading Jon Niese to Pittsburgh for Neil Walker while also signing Asdrubal Cabrera.  I love the Niese-Walker trade.  Starting pitching was something the Mets had in abundance, and Niese was definitely the most expendable.  And, unlike Daniel Murphy (who some of their fans erroneously thought the Mets could re-sign after he turned down their qualifying offer), Walker can actually play second base.  Signing Cabrera, meanwhile, makes Ruben Tejada a backup and Wilmer Flores a utility infielder.  That platoon worked, but neither one is a starter.  And they might still make a run at retaining Yoenis Cespedes.

Tigers: We knew Detroit wouldn't be down for long, and it actually makes all of their trades at the end of last season look much better now.  They struck first, in fact, landing Jordan Zimmermann, the No. 3 starter on the market before the Winter Meetings even began.  (So, in effect, they traded Max Scherzer to Washington for Jordan Zimmermann.)  And, for a team that's always had problems in the bullpen, snagging Justin Wilson away from the Yankees was brilliant.  They've also picked up Mark Lowe and Francisco Rodriguez for that bullpen.  There's also a really good chance that Yoenis Cespedes will come back as a free agent after that three-month stint with the Mets.

Losers
Dodgers: Everyone kind of just assumed that whatever somebody offered Greinke, the Dodgers would offer more and keep him.  Well, not so much.  They didn't want to give him an extra year, so Greinke left.  Going to a division rival of all places!  So instead, they settled for Hisashi Iwakuma as their big free agent starting pitching acquisition.  (Although, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy will both be back next season.)  I'd say they take the plunge and sign Johnny Cueto at some point.  They tried to address the bullpen by trading for Aroldis Chapman, but that fell through, and you'd have to think Kenley Janssen wasn't happy they tried to replace him.  Meanwhile, they still have Jimmy Rollins even though they have no use for him, and they still have four starting outfielders.

Reds: Cincinnati's trying to rebuild.  That's why they tried to trade Aroldis Chapman.  Except Chapman's domestic violence incident got the trade voided and made him virtually unmovable (and likely suspended).  Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce are unmovable, too.  They make too much money.  The only player Cincinnati might actually be able to get something for is Todd Frazier, but do you really trade the best player on the team?

Blue Jays: When they got David Price at the trade deadline last season, it was clear the Blue Jays were going all-in for 2015.  It worked, but it also looked like it would be a one-year thing.  As it turns out, it was.  Toronto made an offer to keep Price, but he spurned them for Boston.  Yes, they kept Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman will be around all season this year, but the Blue Jays will have to revert to their old outscoring you formula in 2016.

Braves: If it wasn't already clear that the Atlanta Braves have absolutely no interest in being competitive this season, the Shelby Miller trade took care of any remaining doubts.  Julio Teheran is now their No. 1 starter, and the only other players on the team you've even heard of are Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and A.J. Pierzynski.  Oh, and Erick Aybar.  Problem is, I don't exactly know where Swisher plays and they're trying to move Freeman, too.  It's probably unfair to label them as a "loser" since they're not actually trying to do anything.  But it's not like they're doing anything to get better, either.

Orioles: I still don't really know what the deal with Chris Davis is.  They made him a huge offer, then pulled it back, and it looks like they're ready to move on without one of their cornerstone players.  (This is Manny Machado's team, though, make no mistake.)  I don't get the whole thing, though.  They virtually leveraged their entire winter on Davis and sat out everything else as a result.  But now that it looks like they're ready to move on, they've missed out on a lot of guys that could've been worthwhile.

Like I said, we've still got a long way to go before teams have their rosters set for 2016.  But at this point in December, you've really got to like what the Cubs and Red Sox (especially the Cubs) have done so far.

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