Congratulations to the New York Mets and their fans. They certainly deserve their place in the World Series. The last time they made it, it was a Subway Series against a Yankees dynasty. The city's allegiance was understandably split. This time, the Mets are the toast of the town. There's even Yankees fans jumping on the bandwagon. While I'm not one of them, I have no ill will towards the Mets. And I legitimately feel good for my friends and relatives that are Mets fans (of which there are many) and are rightfully savoring this moment.
However, once the World Series ends, the Mets are going to have some very difficult decisions to make. More specifically, they need to decide what they're going to do with two of their most important position players. Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy are both set to become free agents. While it's possible they'll keep both, I doubt the Mets will. But which one do you keep?
Daniel Murphy, of course, has been otherworldly during the postseason. And this October tear that he's on has earned him an awful lot of money. Murphy's going to be one of the most sought-after free agents in all of baseball. And I can think of plenty of teams (like the one across town) that will be in the market for his services in 2016.
Yoenis Cespedes, meanwhile, was originally viewed as a rental. But after that torrid start to his Mets career, it wasn't hard to picture him staying in Queens for the long haul. It's safe to say that the Mets wouldn't be in the World Series without Yoenis Cespedes. His arrival, which signified the team was trying to win now, kick-started their offense and sparked their run to the NL East title and ultimately the National League pennant.
Before this postseason, it seemed like a no-brainer that the Mets would be able to keep both of them. But now I'm not so sure. Everybody already knew Cespedes was going to command a pretty penny. Now with Murphy's postseason for the ages, he's going to, as well. The Mets aren't a small-market team. But they're also notorious for not being as free-spending as their cross-town neighbors. And there's something else that people need to keep in mind that extends well beyond the 2015-16 offseason--they eventually need to pay the pitchers.
This World Series appearance gives the Mets a perfect reason to go against their usual practice and open up their checkbooks for both Murphy and Cespedes. With de Grom, Syndergaard and Co., all locked in under team control for the next couple years, the Mets have the potential to be good for a while. But in order to turn into the new version of the Giants, they have to take a page out of San Francisco's book. One of the reasons the Giants have won three of the last five World Series is because they've kept that core group together. The Mets could easily do that same thing.
If this was the NFL, there would be salary cap worries and it would be almost impossible to keep two of your own free agents, especially when they're both going to command a whole lot of money. But if this was the NFL, you'd also see something like David Wright being a good captain and restructuring his contract so that they'd be able to pay both without going over the cap. This is baseball, though. There's nothing stopping the Mets from re-signing both Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes. They're just gonna have to pay up to do it.
Under his contract that's about to expire, Murphy made an average of $8 million a year. He's due to at least double that. Especially considering his age (30), he's looking at probably six years at $15 million per at least. That's $90 million. And that might even be lowballing it.
Cespedes is on the fourth team of that initial four-year contract he signed with the A's after coming over from Cuba in 2012. He's 29 and made $10.5 million this season. As a legitimate right-handed power threat (don't forget, he's a two-time Home Run Derby winner) that a lot of teams covet, someone's going to overpay for him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a contract similar to the one Robinson Cano got from the Mariners. It won't be that high, but eight years for $160 million doesn't seem unrealistic at all.
Averaging out those hypothetical figures, that would put the Mets on the hook for $35 million for just Murphy and Cespedes in 2016. This year, their payroll was just under $100 million, which ranked 20th in the Majors. Cespedes and Murphy account for $18.5 million of that. So, assuming everyone else on the roster is retained at their current salary, doubling the salaries of those two players would bring the payroll to $118 million, which would move them up to 12th.
Like I said, it's possible. But I don't see it happening. So which do you keep? That's the tough question. They've both got incredible value, but in different ways. Murphy's a career Met who can play anywhere in the infield. And while he's on a historic power surge, he's better known as a solid get-on-base guy who you can count on to be out there everyday.
As for Cespedes, he's expressed his interest in playing in a large market, indicating he'd like to stay. And, after being on four teams in two years, who can blame him? His value cannot be overstated, either. When the A's traded him to the Red Sox last July, they were in first place in the AL West. By a wide margin. Only to collapse, see the Angels pass them, barely hang on to make the playoffs, and lose the Wild Card Game. And we all know how Oakland's 2015 season went. Meanwhile, the Tigers were still in contention when they traded Cespedes to the Mets this year at midseason. Detroit ended up in last place, while Cespedes is one of the main reasons why the Mets are in the World Series. We all know about the power, but he's got a gun for an arm and is good for at least 150 games.
It's a really tough call. If I had to pick one, though, I think I'd keep Murphy. Cespedes is going to be pricey, and he really came down to Earth after that incredible start to his Mets career. Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares, the Mets have cheaper in-house options to replace him if he leaves. Murphy, on the other hand, isn't going to break the bank nearly as much as Cespedes will (although the number of teams after him might drive the price up). He's also not-as-easily replaceable. If he leaves, who's going to play second? Or bat after David Wright?
I don't envy Sandy Alderson and the decision he's gonna have to make in a couple weeks. What we do know, though, is that he doesn't have to worry about it yet. Murphy and Cespedes will still be teammates next week, as the Mets try to win the World Series for the first time in 29 years. After that, who knows? But it's not something anybody is worrying about right now.
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