We're here. We've reached the start of the NFL season. Although, I've found it incredibly annoying during the US Open that CBS keeps plugging Thursday Night Football like it's nobody's business, yet there are still a whole bunch of games on CBS on Sunday...four days before their first Thursday night game.
Anyway, now that I've got that off my chest, I can assure you that the weekly picks will definitely be back this season. But first, I've gotta do my annual season preview. Once again, it'll be broken down into two parts. I'll get it started today with the AFC, with the NFC preview coming in the next installment. And I think the tide has shifted back the NFC's way. Other than Denver, maybe Indianapolis and maybe New England, I can't think of any AFC teams I think are capable of winning the Super Bowl. But I can think of three in the NFC West alone. That's for another day, though. Today, the AFC.
East: The Patriots are, of course, going to win the division. One of the things that has annoyed me the most about New England during the Bradicheck dynasty is how cocky they've become. They just assume they're going to be in the playoffs every year. What they conveniently overlook, however, is that the reason they make the playoffs every year is because the rest of the AFC East is so bad. That's the case again this year. Miami's going to be good, and I think the Dolphins will contend for a wild card, but this division is still the Patriots and everybody else. Unless something crazy happens (like the year Brady tore his ACL in the opener and they still went 11-5), the Patriots will win the division and host a playoff game once again. As for the Dolphins, I'm saying 10-6, potentially with a win over New England included. That might be enough for a wild card. The Jets and Bills, however, will not be wild card contenders. It was a minor miracle that the Jets ended up 8-8 last season, but Rex is coaching for his job again, and I don't think he's going to save it this time. Buffalo, meanwhile, will have the ownership situation hanging over their heads for the early part of the season. Once that's resolved, we'll know which direction the Bills are going and when they'll finally have a chance of ending the NFL's longest playoff drought.
North: It really is a toss-up, but I give the North a slight edge over the West as best division in the AFC. We're likely to see at least one of the wild cards (maybe both like in 2012) come out of the North. It says so much that the Pittsburgh Steelers are only the third-best team in this division. Although, those top three teams are so close, that one injury could make the difference. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Steelers win the division. I still put the Bengals in the role of division favorites, though. They've made back-to-back playoff appearances and probably have the deepest roster of the four. Baltimore got lucky with Ray Rice only receiving a two-game suspension, but those first two games that he's missing are against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. In a division race that's going to be incredibly tight, that might be enough to knock the Ravens out of the running for a division title. The team that's already out of the running is the Cleveland Browns. Once again, the Browns have no clue when it comes to hiring a coach (Mike Pettine? Really?) and choosing a starting quarterback (Johnny Manziel's the next Tim Tebow). The one clueless team in a division with three playoff contenders is destined for last place once again.
South: Everything I said about the Patriots could also be applied to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts will probably win the AFC South by default. Because they're the only one of the four that resembles an actual NFL team. Houston had won two straight division titles before hitting rock-bottom last year with all the injuries. The Texans are a better team than they were last year, especially now that they have Jadeveon Clowney joining J.J. Watt on that defensive line. If anybody's going to challenge Indy for the division title, it'll be Houston. Then there's the other two. Jacksonville somehow not only didn't finish with the worst record in football last season, they also somehow managed to not finish third. But let's not kid ourselves. The Jaguars are barely an NFL team, and those helmets are absolutely ridiculous. The Titans, meanwhile, will have roughly the same season they've had for each of the past few years. They'll look God awful in a handful of games, look unbeatable in a couple, and play just well enough to lose in the rest. The end result will be another mediocre season for a mediocre team. I'd say somewhere in the 7-9/6-10 range.
West: No team has made back-to-back Super Bowl appearances since the 2003-04 Patriots, and no Super Bowl loser has gotten back the following year since the Bills went to the last of their four straight. The Broncos have a chance to change that, though. Peyton has lost Eric Decker, and Wes Welker just got suspended for the first few games (he's injured anyway), but the Broncos still have plenty of weapons to overcome that. And Peyton Manning's still Peyton Manning. It's unrealistic to think he'll have the same otherworldly season he had in 2013. But even with just a fraction of that, Denver's probably staring at no worse than 11-5. San Diego and Kansas City both joined them in the playoffs last season, but if I had to pick one to get back, it would probably be the Chargers. That was an impressive late-season run to clinch a playoff spot no one thought they'd come anywhere near, then they won a playoff game. Kansas City, of course, was neck-and-neck with the Broncos for the first half of last season, but I think they'll come back to Earth a little bit. One of the reasons they were undefeated so deep into the season last year was because they took advantage of an easy schedule. The schedule's not anywhere near as easy this season (the AFC West plays the NFC West this year). As a result, I don't think we can expect to see double-digit wins from the Chiefs again. They'll tinker around .500 at best. Then there's the Raiders. The once-proud franchise hasn't been close to good since they got thumped in the Super Bowl a decade ago. I'm fairly certain the Raiders will eventually be relevant again. It just won't be this season.
So there you have it. My division winners are New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and Denver, with San Diego and Pittsburgh picking up the two wild cards. The two best teams in the AFC are probably the Broncos and the Colts, so I'm going to make that my AFC Championship Game matchup. And what sweet satisfaction Peyton's going to feel when he beats the Colts to get back to the Super Bowl.
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