It's that time of the year again. Final week in August. That means the US Open is here. And this year's US Open marks the end of an era. Because this is the last time that the US Open will be on CBS, which has been there from the start (OK, 47 years, but you get the point). But, as they did with Wimbledon, ESPN signed a deal for exclusive rights starting in 2015. The good news about that, though, is that the men's final will move back to Sunday afternoon. As for this year, we've got one final go on CBS, with the women's final after football on Sunday and the men's final taking place on Monday for the sixth consecutive year (and scheduled to do so for the second straight time).
This year has a chance to be a unique one. There's been six different champions in the Grand Slam events this year, and we know that Li Na (the women's Aussie champ) and Rafael Nadal (because no one else is allowed to win the French Open) can't grab a second. They're both injured, which also means Nadal can't defend his title and can even theoretically drop to No. 3 in the world if Roger makes a run. If Roger wins, it'll be his first Grand Slam title since 2012 Wimbledon. That's not even the weird part, though. The weird part is that defending women's champion Serena Williams hasn't even been to the quarters at a Slam this year. So, it's up to the US Open to save her season once again.
We at least know that the women's final is going to be different this year. Serena has beaten Vika Azarenka in each of the last two US Open finals, but can't this year. Those two are on the same side of the draw. But in order for a fourth consecutive Serena-Vika US Open meeting to even happen, Azarenka needs to get by this year's most consistent Grand Slam performer--Eugenie Bouchard. Bouchard has gone semis, semis, final in the other three tournaments, and has a great shot to make it a perfect 4-for-4 in Flushing. That's also assuming the 16th-seeded Azarenka gets by Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova the round before facing Bouchard (and former champ Svetlana Kuznetsova the round before that).
The other big names are in the bottom half of the draw. That's where Maria Sharapova, Aggie Radwanska, Caroline Wozniacki and Venus Williams reside. As well as the likes of No. 2 seed and French Open finalist Simona Halep, former No. 1 Jelena Jankovic, American Sloane Stephens, and Angelique Kerber, who always plays well at the US Open and is seeded sixth. Meanwhile, Sabine Lisicki is also hanging around as the No. 26 seed, and Daniela Hantuchova is unseeded. If there's going to be an upset on the women's side, it'll likely come in the bottom half. With all that star power, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few big names that make deep runs (and maybe one or two that goes down early).
As for Serena, she won the US Open Series (by a lot) and is playing some great tennis. That was also the case a year ago, when she won the title. Luck hasn't been on her side in the Grand Slams so far this year, but she always cranks it up when the pressure's on her in New York, and I expect this year to be no different.
I expect to see Serena Williams reach the semifinals fairly easily. The second quarter of the draw is the interesting one with Kvitova, Azarenka, Bouchard and Dominika Cibulkova. I see Bouchard getting out of there, though. This year's breakout performer has proven that she's a big-time player. This is the first time she'll have the lights of Broadway on her with people actually knowing who she is. At Wimbledon, that clearly got to her in the final. Maybe things will be different at the US Open. Because Serena vs. Bouchard has the potential to be a great semifinal match.
On the bottom half, Kerber and Radwanska are on a quarterfinal collision course. They finished second and third in the US Open series, so it's clear they're both playing well coming into the Open. I see that quarterfinal matchup happening, and for some reason, I like Kerber to win it.
Then we've got the loaded quarter with Sharapova, Lisicki, Wozniacki, Venus and Halep. Venus making the final in Montreal was a nice story, but she doesn't have it in her to win seven matches at a Grand Slam anymore. Along with Bouchard, Halep has been this year's breakout performer. But she's never done anything of significance at the US Open, and I'm not sure she can beat all of these proven US Open winners in a row. I also don't like the Sharapova-Lisicki matchup. That's a tough one for Maria. That leaves us with Caroline Wozniacki. The breakup clearly affected her during Wimbledon. Six weeks later, she's a different player. She's once again playing like she did when she got to No. 1 in the world and made the finals here. I've got a hunch that we're going to see a run from her.
In the semis, I think Serena knocks off Bouchard. Meanwhile, Kerber and Wozniacki has the potential to be a classic. Like I said, though, I've got this feeling about Woz. I think we see her against Serena in the final. But Serena Williams on a mission is a scary proposition for the other players. Serena Williams is on a mission. Back-to-back-to-back US Open titles is that mission.
With Nadal and Del Potro both out, the men's tournament is wide open. Although, it likely will come down to one of two guys once again. Each of the last 10 US Open finals has featured either Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic (or both in 2007). Djokovic has been in the last four, but he's only won one, but Roger hasn't been to the US Open final since his loss to Del Po in 2009. After the classic these two played at Wimbledon, is it too much to ask for a US Open rematch?
I've tried to find somebody I think can halt a Djokovic-Federer crash course, but I'm not sure I do. Milos Raonic maybe, but I'm not sure he beats Djokovic if they meet in the semis. Raonic might need Djokovic to lose earlier, either to the Isner-Kohlschreiber winner (get ready for a three-and-a-half-hour five-set night match that ends at 2:30 in the morning over Labor Day weekend) or the Tsonga-Murray winner. Speaking of Andy Murray, the US Open has always been a place that's kind to him. It's where he made that Grand Slam breakthrough in 2012. But he's struggled this year and drawing Djokovic in the quarters was bad luck.
Give me a Djokovic-Raonic semi. Djokovic is No. 1 in the world for a reason, and he hasn't lost before the semis at the US Open since 2006. In fact, he's got a 21-tournament Grand Slam quarterfinal streak going (he's also played either Federer, Nadal or Murray in 13 of his 14 career Grand Slam finals). Basically, what I'm saying is that Novak Djokovic is turning into Ivan Lendl. No matter what, you can pencil him in the US Open final every year.
As for Federer, his road was made much easier with the withdrawals of Nadal and Del Potro. While Roger is no longer the dominant force he was in his prime, it says an awful lot that he's no longer "elite" but it's still a shock when he loses early. This US Open is a great example. All the stars are aligned for him. Just like they were at Wimbledon (and Wimbledon 2012, when he won his last Grand Slam title). Sure, Mr. Sharapova could give him a challenge in the quarters and potential semifinal opponent Tomas Berdych has always been Federer's Grand Slam foil, but they're really the only ones standing between Roger and his first US Open final in five years.
Djokovic and Federer are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. It would be a shock to not see them squaring off with each other on Monday afternoon. The day off that was put in place last year would certainly help Federer more (since he's not going to win back-to-back best-of-fives on consecutive days), but Djokovic is the best hardcourt player in the game today. A Federer win gives us eight different Grand Slam champions this year, but I think we're more likely to see Djokovic do what he did the last time he won Wimbledon. Follow it up with a US Open title.
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