The French Open has already begun. I still don't understand why, but they do a Sunday start at Roland Garros. They started doing it a couple years ago and it seems completely unnecessary, but I guess it's become their thing, so we've just to roll with it. And since there were no major upsets in the 32 matches (16 men's, 16 women's) today, my expectations for what's going to happen in the tournament haven't been altered at all.
This is the French Open we're talking about anyway. We should just work under the assumption Rafael Nadal is going to win and be surprised if he doesn't (even though he'll be Taylor Swift "surprised" when he inevitably wins again). Dude, you've won eight times in the last nine years! Stop acting like you didn't expect you were going to win.
Anyway, because of a certain left-handed Spaniard, this is my least favorite Slam. There is hope for everyone else this year, though. Nadal has lost twice on clay this year, and both of those guys are in his section of the draw. Of course, those were best-of-three and best-of-five is a completely different animal. Especially when you're talking about winning three sets against Rafael Nadal on clay. And, is if he didn't need any more of an advantage, Djokovic and Federer would play each other in the semis. So, those two will be in a dogfight while Rafa sits there and wins his easy three-setter. Guess who'll be fresher two days later?
Nadal only has one loss in the French Open during his career. In 2009 against Robin Soderling. Soderling ended up going to the finals five years ago, losing to Federer, as Roger finally got his French Open title to complete a career Grand Slam. Djokovic is still looking for his. Novak Djokovic isn't the reigning champion at any of the four Grand Slam tournaments, and he wants this one the most. This is the tournament that has been circled on his calendar. If there's one other player who I'd say might (and I stress might) win this tournament, Novak Djokovic's the guy.
Before they run into each other in the semis, Djokovic will have to beat native son Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Federer gets his own personal foil, Tomas Berdych. Meanwhile, Nadal would play Ferrer in what could be a very interesting quarter. This was the final last year, and Ferrer handed Rafa one of those two losses. If seeds hold, the fourth quarterfinal would be between the two guys who've had their Grand Slam breakthroughs in the past calendar year. Stan Wawrinka beat Nadal in the Aussie Open final and is now ranked No. 3 (he's the top-ranked Swiss player, ahead of Federer). Wimbledon champ Murray is down to No. 7. Clay's not his surface, but he has been a semifinalist here before.
So how do I see this playing out? Obviously, I think Nadal's going to make the finals. In the semis, he'll beat another Frenchman, Richard Gasquet. I just like that draw for Gasquet, and I think we'll see either Murray or Wawrinka (or both) be the victim of an early upset. Djokovic beats Federer in four in the other semi, then is totally worn down by Nadal in the finals once again. There's eventually going to be a point when Rafael Nadal doesn't automatically win the French Open every year. Until that happens, though, it would be stupid to pick against him.
On the women's side, there is actually a chance somebody else might win. Serena Williams is the favorite, but that's by no means a guarantee. Last year was only her second French Open title, and we could get a finals rematch between her and Maria in the quarters. Then there's Li Na. She's won here before (in 2011), and has moved to No. 2 in the world with her Australian Open title. Li's a very real threat for the title. So is No. 3 Aggie Radwanska, who's still looking for that elusive first Grand Slam title.
Then there are the other former champs. Francesca Schiavone lost today, but she wouldn't have been a contender anyway. The woman she beat in the 2012 final, though, Sam Stosur is somebody nobody wants to see. Ana Ivanovic, meanwhile, is playing some of her best tennis in years, and so is Jelena Jankovic. Her quarterfinal opponent would be Sara Errani, who lost to Sharapova in the finals two years ago and has been a Top 10 player ever since. And let's not forget the two Germans, Sabine Lisicki and Angelique Kerber. Unlike the men's field, the women's tournament is wide open.
I usually end up being surprised by someone in the French Open women's tournament. Not necessarily by who wins, but somebody you wouldn't expect is going to go deep into the second week. It might be Caroline Wozniacki. She went from No. 1 to No. 13 while she was with Rory McIlroy, so let's see if their breakup effects her game at all (positively or negatively). Flavia Pennetta, the No. 12 seed, seems like a sleeper candidate, too. I have no idea how Simona Halep got to No. 4 in the world, but she is. And that means her draw is favorable to get to the semifinals.
Before she even gets to Maria, Serena will have to play Venus in the third round, then her nemesis, Sabine Lisicki in the fourth round. How difficult will they make life for her, and will that have an impact during the later rounds? If it does, that works in Radwanska's favor, but she's got to worry about Kerber first. All of this plays right into Li's (or whoever comes out of the bottom's) hands. Because the top half of the draw definitely looks tougher.
As has often been said, the only player who can beat Serena Williams is Serena Williams. Serena has the talent to win on talent alone until she needs to, then she'll step up her game against Lisicki and Sharapova to get to the semis. Where she'll be upset by Angelique Kerber. On the bottom half, I think Ivanovic is primed to make a run. She was the next big thing for a while, then fell on some hard times and dropped out of the Top 10. Here's where she announces she's back with a vengeance. With a semifinal appearance at the French Open, where she falls to Li Na. And at the end of the fortnight, it'll be Li Na who's halfway to the Grand Slam.
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