I'll be the first to admit I don't get even remotely excited about preseason football. I don't subscribe to that "It's football" approach that a lot of people have to justify caring about the preseason. But I don't find watching a bunch of rookies and guys fighting for backup jobs on a Friday night in August remotely entertaining. It's bad football. I'd much rather watch a middle-of-the-season pennant race baseball game than watch Peyton Manning play for three series than stand on the sidelines for three quarters of a meaningless "game" between guys who aren't even going to be on the team when the season starts.
Now that I've got that off my chest, this week is different. I'm excited about this week. Football is here. And I'm talking about football of the real variety. The regular season. It all gets started with the defending champion Ravens visiting Denver in a rematch of that epic playoff game last season. Of course, the tradition has become that the Super Bowl champions open their defense at home on Thursday night, but an unmovable conflict with the Orioles sent the Ravens on the road. It's not like they're giving us a bad opener, though.
The Broncos and Ravens should both be at the top of the AFC again this season. The AFC has become very top-heavy, and I don't expect that to change this season. Denver and New England should take advantage of being in weak divisions and clinch relatively quickly. Same thing in the AFC South. The Texans and Colts will fight each other for the division title, and they should both get into the playoffs because of how bad Tennessee and Jacksonville are. The only AFC division that can hold its weight against any of the four in the NFC is the AFC North, which put three teams in the playoffs two years ago and two last season. Cleveland fans are very excited about the Browns this season, but I think it'll be tough for them in what's clearly the conference's best division.
AFC East: The AFC East, once again, will be all about the Patriots. Although, I continue to hold firm on my stance that New England is one of the more overrated teams in football. The Patriots' record year-after-year is a by-product of being in the same division as three very weak teams than anything else. This year is absolutely no different. The only one of the three that's not an absolute joke is Miami, but even the Dolphins wouldn't be classified as an "elite" team. The Bills are going to start an undrafted rookie at quarterback against Tom Brady in Week 1. That says about all that needs to be said about their chances. Yet Buffalo's still better than the Jets, who have completed their descent into "comic relief" territory. Rex Ryan has no clue what he's doing, and neither does anybody else. They'll be lucky to win six games, and I think everybody knows it. So, yeah, we'll get another Patriots runaway, purely by default.
AFC North: The Ravens likely won't be as good as they were last season, but they're still going to be a very, very good team. Of course, winning your division means you get a first-place schedule the following year, so Baltimore will have to deal with New England, Houston and Denver, as well as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati twice each. Whoever wins those division games could determine which two of the three will get into the playoffs. You've gotta figure Baltimore gets one of those berths, which leaves us with the Steelers and Bengals. Personally, I think Pittsburgh underachieved last season, and the expectations aren't high on the Steelers this season, at least from the experts. I'm not entirely sure Pittsburgh's going to have adown year, though. I just don't see the Steelers missing the playoffs two years in a row. Likewise, I'm not completely sold on Cincinnati. The Bengals are a popular pick to make their third straight playoff appearance, or even win the division. Then there's the Browns. I completely agree with everyone who thinks Cleveland is a much-improved team, and they're going to be fun to watch as long as Trent Richardson is on the field. The Browns' problem, though, I'll reiterate, is their division. In the AFC North, I just don't see them getting out of last place.
AFC South: Who's going to win the division, the Texans or the Colts? Ultimately, I'm not sure how much it actually matters, since I think they're both getting back to the playoffs. Indy's got a lot to live up to after last season's incredible turnaround (in Year 1 of the Post-Peyton Manning Era, by the way). Not to take anything away from Chuck Pagano, but Bruce Arians deserves a lot of the credit for that turnaround. Arias is now the head coach in Arizona, however, and the task of repeating that unlikely run is Pagano's alone. Houston, of course, is thinking Super Bowl. The Texans, I think, were a little better last season, but they've still got their talented trio on offense and J.J. Watt might be the best defensive player in the game. I'll be shocked if the Texans don't win at least 11 games. At the bottom of the division, things are probably less dire in Nashville than they are in Jacksonville. (Tim Tebow really needs to take the hint. Even the Jaguars don't want him as a quarterback!) In addition to having the ugliest helmets and worst uniforms in the league, the Jaguars will probably be challenging the Jets for the No. 1 pick in April. The Titans at least have some talent and can realistically hope for a 6-10 year.
AFC West: Much like New England in the East, Denver is far-and-away the class of the AFC West. As good as the Broncos were last year, they should be that much better this season now that Peyton and Wes Welker have teamed up. Even losing Elvis Dumervil isn't going to be as much of a loss as a lot of people think, because that offense is going to be even better than it was last season. If there's any AFC West team that has a chance of remotely keeping it competitive with the Broncos, it's the Chiefs. Hiring Andy Reid was a brilliant move for Kansas City. He had certainly worn out his welcome in Philadelphia, but there's a reason he was there for so long. And the Chiefs have plenty of talent on the roster to compete, as evidence by having seven Pro Bowlers on a two-win team last season. While I think it'll probably take them a year or two to be really good, I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs go 10-6/9-7 and flirt with a playoff berth. If everything goes right, the Chiefs might even make the playoffs. The Chargers, of course, used to be that team that perennially underachieved despite being projected to make the playoffs, but those days are over. Nobody expects much from San Diego anymore. As for the Raiders, they're starting Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. I'm sure there's going to be a point where the Raiders are once again viewed as a model NFL franchise rather than a laughingstock. This year won't be that year, however.
As for the playoff field, two of the division winners are abundantly clear. It'll take something catastrophic for the Patriots and Broncos to NOT win their divisions. There will be two playoff teams coming out of both the North and South. In the North, I'm going with the Ravens to win the division and the Steelers to get a wild card, while Houston and Indianapolis will repeat their 1-2 standing (in that order) in the South. The AFC Championship, I think, will come down to Houston vs. Denver, with the Broncos making up for last season's disappointment and advancing to the Super Bowl in Giants Stadium. (After all, Eli won the Super Bowl in Peyton's stadium, so why shouldn't Peyton get to play in one in Eli's?)
NFC picks coming tomorrow. Those will be harder calls to make. Because the NFC is significantly stronger than the AFC this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment