Today's non-waiver trade deadline came and went without much major movement. There were a few deals here and there, but, for the most part, it was a very quiet day. I think the reason for that is obvious. With the second wild card team in each league now, more teams think they're contenders, so there aren't as many sellers. That, of course, isn't actually the case. But with eight weeks left in the season, you can't blame teams for thinking that.
Of course, reality is going to set in very soon for teams like the Royals and Padres and Phillies, and maybe even the Yankees. They're not going to make the playoffs, and even if they do, they're not good enough to win the World Series. Given a couple more weeks, these teams will know that.
That's why I propose moving the trade deadline to August 15. Why is it on July 31 anyway? Nobody seems to know. That's just the day it's always been, so they never changed it. But with 10 teams making the playoffs every season, the number of clubs that know they're out of it with two full months to go is simply way too small. You have 20 teams that want to be buyers with only five or six guaranteed sellers. And some potential sellers who won't do anything for any number of reasons, be it they don't have anybody a contender would want or, if they do, don't want to give him up, or they think the team they have can contend the following season.
Regardless, I think the August 15 date is much more sensible. This year's deadline moves were dictated by uncertainty with the pending Biogenesis suspensions and injuries. I'm not saying all of that will be figured out in two weeks, but the picture will most likely be at least a little bit clearer. Point is, your needs at the end of July and your needs in mid-August might be completely different. And what you're able to get in mid-August isn't always the cream of the crop.
The other problem with acquiring a player in August is that it's a gamble. Since they have to clear waivers, any team can make a claim on any player, with the claimant that has the worst record getting the right to work out a deal for that player. The original team then has the choice of keeping the player by revoking the waivers, trading him to the other team, or letting them have him outright. That's what the Blue Jays did a couple years ago when the White Sox made a claim on Alex Rios, at which point they said, "Go ahead. Take him."
You also get the waiver moves that backfire, though. In the mid-90s, the Padres made a claim on lefty reliever Randy Myers because they thought the Braves were going to, and they didn't want Atlanta to get him. Myers ended up helping San Diego, and he was a key part of their 1998 World Series team. Except, the Braves didn't want him. Atlanta never even put in a claim. If the Padres had known that, they might not have put in a claim either.
But the fact that waiver claims even have to come into play is somewhat ridiculous. That's the only difference between trying to trade a guy on July 31 and trying to trade the same player on August 10. At least on July 31, you can negotiate with anybody. Limiting negotiations to just those two teams also greatly reduces the market for that player. Whose to say they wouldn't be able to get a better package for him from somebody else? More importantly, why don't they get that chance? And the team that gets him doesn't care. For their purposes, it makes no difference when they got him as long as he's eligible in October.
My biggest reason for thinking they should move the trade deadline is the sheer fact that they're still allowed to make trades throughout the month of August. Just take the waiver element out of it. The bottom line is, as long as a player is on a team's active roster or DL by August 31, he's eligible for the postseason. Because of that, it makes much more sense to give teams throughout the month of August to figure out what they want to do for the stretch run.
As an added bonus, if you move the date, teams might know whether or not they have a prayer at October before deciding whether or not they want to dump prospects and go for it. After all, no matter how many trades are made, only one team's hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of October.
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