Well, Buck and his wild card games sure screwed up the playoff schedule, didn't he? I've already been over this, so I'm not going to go into it again, but consider...as a "reward" for the No. 1 seed in the AL, the Yankees will potentially have to fly to Texas and play a Rangers team that's been sitting there waiting for them, don't play a home game until Wednesday and could end up playing only one home game in the entire postseason (while wild card Texas theoretically gets to play at least three). Or, if the Division Series goes five, they'll end up playing a home game on five consecutive days. IN THE POSTSEASON!
Anyway, now that I've gotten that off my chest, that was a crazy, if not somewhat anticlimactic, conculsion to the regular season. We were talking about the Rangers and Yankees duking it out for AL home field all season. Who would've thought that Texas would end up stuck in the wild card game? And who saw this Oakland thing coming?! As great a story as the Orioles are, I'd say they're only the second-most unexpected playoff team this season. We all thought an AL West team from California would be in the playoffs...the one a little further south that signed this guy named Albert in the off-season and has this other guy named Trout.
Over in the Senior Circuit, the biggest surprise has to be the Nationals. Coming into the season, I think most people were in aggreement that Washington was going to be much improved. But the best-case scenario expectations were that they'd contend for a wild card. They were supposed to be a year or two away. Instead, the Nats had the best record in baseball, won their first division title since 1981 (which doesn't really count because of the strike), and brought postseason baseball back to the nation's capital for the first time since 1933. Teddy Roosevelt even won the President's Race!
The wild card games obviously limit my ability to handicap the Division Series matchups. But for the sake of breaking down all four series, I'm going to assume Atlanta and Texas win those games. It's unfair that the Braves ended up in this situation. They're much better than the Cardinals, and have been the fourth-best team in the National League all season. This is their second chance after the collapse of last year. Chipper ain't going out with a loss in a wild card game. The final home game of his career will be Game 2 against Washington on Monday.
As it turns out, there would've been a wild card game in the American League this year anyway. Nobody's talking about the Rangers' late-season collapse, but if they don't beat Baltimore, theirs will be equally historic. They had a 13-game lead in late July and led the division by two games with three to play! The Orioles are a great story, but a battle-tested, pissed off Rangers team isn't a good matchup for Baltimore. I just can't see Texas completely choking away its season. Buck's former team beats Buck's current team to set up a matchup with the Yankees. And with that, it's on to my Division Series previews...
Yankees vs. Rangers: These two were battling for the AL's best record for the last two months of the season, so I bet nobody saw this as a potential Division Series. Yet here we are. They both turned a massive division lead into a tight pennant race. But, unlike the Rangers, the Yankees managed to hold off Baltimore and win their division. That's why I like the Yankees in this series. They played some of their best baseball of the season over the final week and a half, while it's almost too generous to say Texas "limps" into the postseason. There are two other factors that swing the pendulum in the Yankees' favor. The first is starting pitching. Dempster pitched on Wednesday and Darvish is pitching the wild card game, which means the Rangers probably can't use either until Game 3 at the earliest. The Yankees, meanwhile, will have Sabathia and Pettitte (in either order) in Games 1 and 2, then Kuroda in Game 3 at the Stadium. This is also the first time in a long time that the Yankees' entire starting lineup is healthy. It'll be a great matchup between the teams that have combined for the last three American League pennants, but I think the extra game takes its toll on the Rangers against the rested Yankees. Yankees in four.
Athletics vs. Tigers: I still can't believe the Oakland A's are in the playoffs. The sheer fact that they seem incapable of losing makes them a serious threat to make a deep run. They remind me of the 2007 Rockies and 2008 Rays. But I think Oakland's luck runs out against Detroit. Sure, the Tigers only had 88 wins, tied for the fewest among all playoff teams, but don't let their record fool you. Detroit is the scariest team in the entire American League field. For Oakland to win this series, they're going to have to find a way to beat either Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer. And if the Doug Fister of the 2011 playoffs shows up, that gives Detroit three powerful strikeout machines. And I'm not sure if you heard, but the Tigers also have this Cabrera guy who had a pretty good season. Throw in Prince to bat behind Miggy and you've got a lineup that's better than Detroit's lineup last season. It's remarkable what all of those rookie pitchers for the A's have done, but this is their first go-round with postseason baseball. Sure, they handled themselves beautifully in the playoff-like atmosphere of that Texas series, but the Tigers' offense is way too powerful. Oakland doesn't lose at home, though, so if the A's can steal one of the games in Detroit, I like their chances a lot better. This team has surprised me all season, though. I don't think I can name more than three players on the A's. Records aside, the Tigers are a better team. Tigers in four.
Nationals vs. Braves: This one is definitely interesting. These two division rivals know each other exceptionally well, and, on paper, they're pretty evenly matched. I don't think anybody has any idea what Washington's going to do with Stephen Strasburg, but we do know that they'll get two starts from Gio Gonzalez if the series goes the distance. Atlanta won't have that luxury, since Kris Medlen is starting the wild card game, although I'd suspect the Braves will go with Tim Hudson in Game 1 if they beat the Cardinals. In my heart, I'd love to say the Braves are going to win this series and Chipper's career gets to continue for a few more days. With that bullpen, it wouldn't be a total shock to see that. But in my head, I've got to go with the Nationals. They've gotten it done all season long with an underrated lineup and that deep pitching staff. Even without Strasburg, they're going to throw Gio out there twice, plus Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson, who won a ring last year with the Cardinals. I really do see this series as a toss-up. It's really tough for me to give the advantage to one team over the other. But since Washington will get the opportunity to throw its Cy Young candidate out there twice, and the D.C. fans will bask in the thrill of their first postseason in 80 years. That's going to make the difference. Nationals in five.
Reds vs. Giants: Oh boy, is this a yummy matchup! Easily the best of the Division Series. Cincinnati's 2012 playoff experience should end up being better than their trip to the postseason two years ago, where they were no-hit by Roy Halladay in Game 1 and never stood a chance against the Phillies. Things should be different this year, mainly because Cincinnati's pitching is much better now. But if you really like good pitching, the San Francisco Giants are the team for you. The Giants' rotation is going to be Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Ryan Vogelsong. Cincinnati will counter with Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, so I'm not sure either team does much hitting in this series. How long the starters stay in the game could come into play. The Giants' starters are better, while Cincinnati has the far superior bullpen. I think the key guys in this series, though, will be the guys with the bats. The Reds have one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, and the Giants pitchers will almost have to shut them down the way the Phillies did in 2010. San Francisco, of course, won the World Series that season, and the Giants are a better team this year. San Francisco is much more complete offensively. The Giants are scary, but they'll need to get by the Reds first. I see this series going five. I hope it does. Because it's going to be some entertaining baseball. Giants in five.
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