It's the last week in August, which means it's U.S. Open time! I get to go for free this year because my session got rained out last year, but that really has nothing to do with why I'm excited about this year's U.S. Open. Since it's the last Grand Slam, the unofficial Player of the Year is often decided at the U.S. Open. That's certainly the case this year. There have been six different winners in the first three Grand Slam tournaments this year, and Andy Murray entered the discussion on the men's side with his Olympic gold medal. Throw in the back-to-back semi and final, exclusive to the U.S. Open, and you've got one tough tournament to win. And who knows, maybe this year it'll actually be over on Sunday. (I jokingly said last year, "Do you think the Monday final will become permanent?" After complaints by the men's players got it pushed back for the fourth straight year in 2011, there actually is talk that they will make it permanent.)
On the women's side, there's a clear favorite. Serena Williams pulled off the double at the All-England Club, winning Wimbledon, then taking Olympic gold (two of them, in fact) a month later. In the Olympic final, she absolutely crushed Maria Sharapova. It was like we were seeing the Serena of old. If she plays like that again over the next two weeks, another U.S. Open title could definitely be in the cards. However, Vintage Serena also means some epic U.S. Open meltdowns. There was the incident with the lineswoman in the semifinal against Kim Clijsters two years ago, and I'm still not really sure what happened against Samantha Stosur in last year's final. Will Good Serena or Bad Serena show up?
The other two Grand Slam winners this year happen to be the other two Olympic medalists. Maria Sharapova won the French Open, then won the silver in London. But she, too, has been a study of contrasts at the Open. Sharapova won the title in 2008, but has a number of early-round exists. A lot of those early losses came before she was back in top form, though, so I'd be shocked to see one this year. Olympic bronze medalist and world No. 1 Victoria Azarenka also has to be considered a contender, even though she's never been past the fourth round here.
This U.S. Open is also the swan song for Kim Clijsters. The three-time U.S. Open champ will call it a career after the tournament. This has been, by far, the best Grand Slam for the former world No. 1. In fact, Clijsters hasn't lost a U.S. Open match since losing in the 2003 final (although this will only be her fourth appearance since then). While I don't think she'll win, I'd love to see Clijsters make a deep run and get the sendoff she deserves.
As for my prediction, a quick scan of the draw looks more favorable for Serena Williams than the other top contenders. Azarenka and Clijsters would have to meet each other in the quaters, with Maria waiting in the semis. Defending champ Sam Stosur is also in that section of the draw. On the bottom half, meanwhile, the only players who can scare Serena are Venus, who I don't think is capable of winning seven straight Grand Slam matches anymore, and Caroline Wozniacki, who she beat in the semis last year. On paper, Wimbledon finalist Agnieszka Radwanska has the easiest road to the semis, but I just have a feeling she's going to get upset. I've got Angelique Kerber claiming that semifinal spot opposite Serena, while Azarenka beats Sharapova in the other semi. Serena didn't get it done last year. But this is a different Serena Williams. The Summer of Serena continues.
On the men's side, the Big Four has been reduced to the Big Three because a certain Spanish pansy is still "nursing" a knee injury. I won't miss him, but I was looking forward to seeing that little 3 next to his name. His absence also means that somebody not named Federer, Djokovic, Nadal or Murray will actually be allowed to play in a Grand Slam semifinal. And it won't be David Ferrer, who moves up to the 4-seed. (Sadly, fifth-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is in Murray's quarter, not Tsonga's.)
Regardless, this year has been defined by three guys, one of whom is going to win the U.S. Open. Roger's back! He won Wimbledon and regained the No. 1 ranking. After that loss to Del Potro in the 2009 final, then the back-to-back semifinal losses to Djokovic, he's determined to win another U.S. Open. If he does, it further cements that No. 1 ranking (doesn't it just seem right to have the little 1 next to Federer?) and further proves to everyone that Roger isn't going anywhere any time soon. Last year was the Year of Novak. Djokovic won three Grand Slam titles last year, capped by one here. He can't get back to No. 1 if he defends his title, but Djokovic would be the only guy to win two Grand Slams this year if he does.
But I think both Roger and Novak need to be on the lookout. The Olympics were Andy Murray's coming-out party, and that gold medal may have awakened a sleeping giant. Remember what happened with Djokovic last year? This has a very similar feel. He's always played well at the U.S. Open, and the Olympic gold took a lot of that burden off his chest. Andy Murray's first Grand Slam title is coming sooner rather than later. And when it comes, it'll be the first of many. Don't be surprised if it's on the blue court in two weeks.
It's been nine years since Andy Roddick won this thing for what is, and sadly will probably remain, his only Grand Slam title. Roddick's reign as the King of American Tennis is ending. That doesn't mean he doesn't have another U.S. Open run in him. The future King of American Tennis is John Isner. Isner's desperate to be known for something other than that 70-68 match at Wimbledon. He's in that section of the draw without one of the Big Three. Isner's never going to have a better chance at his Grand Slam breakthrough.
I'd also keep my eye on Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro won in 2009, becoming the first player ever to beat Nadal and Federer back-to-back at a Slam, but has been limited by injuries ever since. Del Potro is back, though. He lost that incredible Olympic semifinal to Roger, then came back the following day to beat Djokovic for the bronze. If form holds, Djokovic-Del Potro will be the can't-miss quarterfinal. Same goes for the Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga semifinal. I'd like Tsonga's chances a little better if he wasn't in Murray's quarter.
Who are we kidding here? Even though there's only three instead of four, you can still typecast the semifinalists. The fourth one is the question, though. Again, this is Isner's best chance to finally make that Grand Slam breakthrough. I'm taking him, although I also like Mikhail Youzhy in that section of the draw. Djokovic lucks out by avoiding all of the other heavy hitters, which means anything less than the finals would be a disappointment. As for the other semi, it'll be more competitive than the Olympic final, but I think the result will be the same. Murray over Federer. And, like I said, 2012 just might be the Year of Murray. Making the Wimbledon final was the hard part. Winning the U.S. Open? Child's play. We might not have to wait much longer for Andy Murray's first Grand Slam title. Maybe just two more weeks.
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