Olympic Medal Predictions

She wasn't on my list of candidates, but I think Mariel Zagunis is a fantastic choice as the U.S. flag bearer.  With Zagunis being selected, one of the things everybody has begun pointing out is that there are eight more women on the American team than men.  While this is significant, the fact that it's only eight seems kind of low to me.  Especially considering the fact that the U.S. women qualified and the men didn't in two of the team sports: soccer and field hockey.  That's a significant swing right there alone. 

Regardless, the selection of Zagunis is more than appropriate.  She's a two-time defending gold medalist, and favored to win a third.  This year is also the 40th anniversary of Title IX.  Combining all of those factors, it wouldn't have made sense to have a male flag bearer.

Now on to the matter at hand: my medal predictions.  The media has been making a big deal about the fact that China won more gold medals than the U.S. in Beijing (while seemingly ignoring the fact that the Americans topped the overall medal tally), and some have begun to wonder if the Chinese will overtake the Americans atop the medal standings.  Some even think Russia might challenge the U.S. and China for overall supremacy.

There's this guy in Italy who makes medal projections prior to every Olympics, and he's usually pretty close.  But this time he's way off.  He has the U.S. finishing in the 70s!  Seeing as the U.S. medal haul has been in the 90s or 100s at every Olympics since 1960 (when it was 71), except for the boycotted 1980 Games, I would figure that's a more realistic number.

Everyone also seems to be ignoring that China was the benificiary of tremendous home field advantage four years ago.  That's one of the primary reasons why they won 51 gold medals.  I'm not saying China isn't a budding Olympic powerhouse.  You'd have to be a fool to think otherwise.  But you'd also have to be a fool to think the Chinese will match their record haul from Beijing without the crazy support of the home crowd.  Half of their medals in Beijing were gold for crying out loud!  So, do I think China will surpass the U.S. atop both the gold and overall medal table?  It'll be close, but no and no.  I think China will end up closer to Russia than the U.S.

Great Britain's goal for its home Olympics is to finish fourth overall.  This is a very realistic aspiration, and one that's certainly achievable.  In fact, I'd be surprised if Great Britain didn't end up fourth (just like they did in 2008).  They're always among the top nations anyway, and the home field advantage should be good for a few more golds and a few more medals overall.  The British are strong in a number of sports, and I think 60 or more medals is doable.  They haven't put a number on the total they're looking for, but they jumped from 30 in Athens to 47 in Beijing.  Another jump like that would be 64.  At the very least, they'll end up in the 50s, which should be enough to finish ahead of Germany and Australia.

As for the rest of the top 10, it should be the usual suspects.  Germany, Japan, Australia, France, Italy and South Korea.  Where Brazil finishes will be interesting, though.  Can the Brazilians crack the Top 10?  When it's their turn to host coming up four years from now, Brazil is going to be a player.  I'm curious to see what they'll do here.  I don't see Brazil finishing in the Top 10 (which should be the goal for the home team in Rio), but I'll definitely keep an eye on that medal count.  I'm thinking low 20s, which would probably put Brazil in 11th place overall.

Before I unveil my Top 10, just a few housekeeping items to get out of the way.  I have 83 countries winning medals, 49 of them winning at least one gold.  I've got Cyprus (gold), Jordan (gold), Albania (silver, bronze), Botswana (silver), Grenada (silver), Gabon (bronze) and Malta (bronze) all winning Olympic medals for the first time.

Now, for my Top 10 (the numbers are gold, silver, bronze, total):

1. United States 43-29-26 (98)
2. China 35-27-24 (86)
3. Russia 25-22-36 (83)
4. Great Britain 21-14-25 (60)
5. Japan 10-18-18 (46)
6. Germany 17-15-13 (45)
7. Australia 15-15-11 (41)
8. France 11-9-13 (33)
9. Italy 10-9-18 (27)
10. South Korea 9-7-9 (25)