Conference Finals

We're halfway there in the 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Eight more wins and either the Bruins, Lightning, Canucks or Sharks will hoist the Cup.  The two teams from the West aren't a surprise at all, while I'm not sure anyone expected a Boston-Tampa Bay Eastern Conference Finals matchup.  But that's the beauty of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  You never know what's going to happen.

Before I start talking about the two series, a few observations from the second round:

• If you have a 3-0 lead, you'd better close it out.  The Bruins learned that lesson last season, and made sure they didn't blow it against the Flyers again this year.  Same thing goes for the Lightning, who had the added benefit of playing Games 3 & 4 on back-to-back days against a completely apathetic Capitals team.  The Canucks had problems with this in the first round against the Blackhawks, while the Sharks were taking to seven by the Red Wings after going up 3-0.  Keep playing!  The series victory isn't guaranteed, and all you're doing is giving the other team momentum.
• The Canucks and Sharks have both been among the best regular season teams in the NHL for the last few years, but neither one was ever able to get it done in the playoffs.  They've both finally put it together this season, though, and one of them will finally go to the Finals.
• I don't remember there ever being a duller pair of conference semifinals than we saw this year in the East.  The Bruins outscored the Flyers 20-7, winning three of the games by four goals.  Philly somehow managed to reach the Finals with three crappy goalies last season, but that approach clearly didn't work this year.  All three played in the series, and all three got pulled.  Lightning-Capitals was only slightly better.  Washington looked like it couldn't care less during the two games in Tampa.

So now we're here.  The Bruins and Lightning are facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals, while it's Canucks-Sharks in the West.  Believe it or not, of the quartet, Tampa Bay is the one that's won the Cup most recently, in 2003-04, the final pre-lockout season.  Meanwhile, Boston is looking to get back to the Finals for the first time since 1990, Vancover hasn't been since 1994, and the Sharks have never played in the Stanley Cup Finals.  Basically, a long drought is likely going to end, since I don't think Tampa Bay's winning the Cup.

As I've said all along, goaltending is the key to winning in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the conference finals because Dwayne Roloson has literally stood on his head.  They have the horses to score with anybody, but they've won seven straight playoff games (against Pittsburgh and Washington no less) because of the play of their goaltender.  Roloson has allowed a grand total of 14 goals over the last seven games, including a 1-0 shutout in Game 7 against Pittsburgh.  Tim Thomas has been just as good for the Bruins.  The Flyers trio looked lost while Thomas was a rock in goal for Boston.  It's no coincidence that the Bruins resumed being good when they decided to make Tim Thomas their starting goalie.

The two goalies have the top two goals against averages of the playoffs, which makes you think that scoring might be at a premium in this series, but I don't necessarily think that'll be the case.  Remember, each of these teams has had more than a week off while the Western Conference series finished up.  The rest is obviously welcome, and it will help the skaters tremendously.  At the same time, it'll probably affect the goalies' rhythm.  If it goes long, I expect the goalies to again take over, but at least at the start, I think these might be high-scoring games.  If it stays high-scoring throughout, the advantage goes to the Lightning and the explosive trio of Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier and Steven Stamkos.  However, Zdeno Chara is a large, scary man wearing ice skates, and he can easily make things difficult for one or all of them.  Because of Chara and Thomas, Boston has the edge if the games are low-scoring.

Out West, the Canucks finally played like the best team in hockey for the first three games of the Nashville series.  Ryan Kesler single-handedly beat the Predators.  I'd have to say that, at this moment, he's probably a leading candidate (along with Roloson and Thomas) for the Conn Smythe Trophy.  Plus, they've got the Sedin twins.  And Roberto Luongo doesn't get enough credit for how important he is to that team.  He can look really bad at times, which his critics love to point out, but when he's on, he might be the best goalie in hockey.  Do any Vancouver fans remember Luongo leading the home team to the gold medal on his home ice last year?  I don't.

Anyway, Roberto Luongo is better than Antti Niemi.  Nothing against Niemi, but the Sharks normally just need him to be good enough for them to outscore you.  That worked in the first two rounds, but Vancouver has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Co.  Don't get me wrong.  San Jose's offense is better.  It's clearly the best of the four remaining teams.  I just think the Canucks have the personnel to counter punch.  I also wonder what kind of an effect the seven-game series against the Red Wings will have on the Sharks.  Then there's the early start times out West (which are for Eastern time zone viewers), which could be the great equalizer in this series.  Which team is going to make that adjustment?

I'm taking the Bruins in six and the Canucks in seven.  I can easily see San Jose beating Vancouver, though.  Either way, I like the Western Conference champion in the Finals.