Since I like baseball so much, I was having trouble trying to figure out how to cram a baseball preview into one blog post. Then I decided that would be an impossible task, so I looked for an alternate plan. What did I come up with? A six-part division-by-division look at the upcoming 2011 season. My next six posts (starting with this one) leading up to Opening Day on March 31 will break down a different division. As a Yankees fan, I obviously know the AL East the best. With that in mind, we're going to go in the same order as any newspaper or any website (East, Central, West--American, National). An additional note before we get started, I'm going to do the teams according to my predicted order of finish.
1. Boston Red Sox-As sad as it is to admit, the Boston Red Sox are probably the best team in the American League, at least on paper. I still hate them with a passion, but I can't in good faith say that the Red Sox aren't the favorites to win this division. Theo Epstein is still obsessed with first basemen and starting pitchers, but, as the Yankees are finding out, too many starting pitchers is better than not enough. Their two big offseason additions were Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Crawford is an amazing fit for left field in Fenway Park, and pretty much everyone saw that one coming. I don't quite understand getting Gonzalez and moving Youkilis to third, though. They also don't have any infield backups other than Jed Lowrie, which could be problematic if somebody gets hurt. Another Achilles heel could be behind the plate, where Jarrod Saltalamacchia is no Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek is 86 years old. I'm actually not really sure why Varitek is still on the team. But their pitching is ridiculous, which is why they're the division favorites. The front of the Boston rotation is better than any team in baseball other than the Phillies, and, just in case one closer wasn't enough, they added Bobby Jenks to an already stacked bullpen. Injuries kept the Red Sux out of the playoffs last season, but they might be good enough this year to make it even if a couple guys are out for an extended period.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Carl Crawford-LF, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, J.D. Drew-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Marco Scutaro-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Projected Record: 98-64
2. New York Yankees-My hope of all hopes for the Yankees is that they tread water long enough with three starters to still be in contention when they get a stud (Mark Buehrle?) at the trade deadline. The good thing is the offense is good enough to win a bunch of 10-8 games. The big news during the offseason was mostly bad (Andy Pettitte retired, Cliff Lee didn't come to replace him), but the pieces that were added do fit nicely. Russell Martin still has some tread in the tires and, even though he's old, Andruw Jones only needs to be the new Marcus Thames, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only potential problems I see with this new lineup are the lack of quality bats off the bench (none) and the questions about Jorge Posada DHing. If he embraces the role and stays healthy, he could have a big year. The back end of the rotation problems might not be that bad with the ridiculous bullpen that the Yankees have. Jose Feliciano left the Mets as a free agent, so he moved across town to actually give the Yankees a second lefty other than Boone Logan. I don't know if David Robertson can repeat last year's success, and who knows what's going on with Joba, but Rafael Soriano is this year's eighth inning guy and he's better than both of them. And they still have Mariano.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Nick Swisher-RF (won't hit if he doesn't bat second, so leave him there please), Mark Teixeira-1B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Robinson Cano-2B, Jorge Posada-DH, Curtis Granderson-CF, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova
Projected Record: 95-67 (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays-At the end of last season, it seemed like there would be no way the Rays would be in the conversation to win the AL East again in 2011. They're not the favorite, but they won't suddely revert back to being the Devil Rays. I'm not sure Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can replace the production of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, but they're proven veterans who can provide necessary leadership (well, at least Damon can on that last part). And evidently the Rays think that's enough to have Desmond Jennings start the season playing alongside Crash Davis and Nuke LaLoosh. I'm not really sure they can replace Jason Bartlett at shortstop, and the loss of Matt Garza is also big. Fortunately, the Rays have one of the best pitchers in the American League (David Price) and a Rookie of the Year candidate (Jeremy Hellickson) in that rotation. The bullpen has been one of this team's strengths since it got good three years ago, but with Rafael Soriano gone, it could be a weakness. I think J.P. Howell is penciled in as the closer, and they added Kyle Farnsworth as a set-up guy. You all know my feelings about Kyle Farnsworth. At least when he throws fastballs down the middle this season, the Yankees will be the team hitting when he's on the mound.
Projected Lineup: John Jaso-C (catchers shouldn't lead off, but it worked last year), B.J. Upton-CF, Johnny Damon-LF, Evan Longoria-3B, Manny Ramirez-DH, Ben Zobrist-RF, Dan Johnson-1B, Reid Brignac-SS, Sean Rodriguez-2B
Projected Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeff Neimann, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson
Projected Record: 89-73
4. Baltimore Orioles-The Orioles will be a lot better this season. They're going to hit, and they're going to give the big three fits. But this is the AL East and Baltimore still doesn't have any pitching. I think a .500 record is a very respectable and realistic goal, though. The Orioles added Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and his strikeouts. Plus, they get back a healthy Brian Roberts. That's the good news. The bad news (other than the division that they play in) is that the rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz (who has a lot of upside). But Buck Showalter knows what he's doing, as evidence by the fact that they won more games in two months with him last season than the previous four without him, despite having pretty much the exact same team. The Orioles won't win the division, but they might play a role in who does. They play 54 games against the Red Sux, Yankees and Rays, and whichever one they beat the most might be the one that misses the playoffs. There's reason to be hopeful in Baltimore. The Orioles will be good again soon, and this year could be the start of something. Remember, the Yankees (1996) and Diamondbacks (2001) both won the World Series the year after firing Buck. (I hope I did the O's preview justice, Mr. Jim.)
Projected Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Derrek Lee-1B, Vladimir Guerrero-DH, Mark Reynolds-3B, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Luke Scott-LF, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Justin Duchscherer, Brad Bergesen
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Toronto Blue Jays-Finally, there's the most annoying team in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays. I seriously don't know how this team gives good teams so many problems. They're a bunch of fastball hitters! Don't throw them fastballs! Anyway, now that I've gotten that off my chest, I don't see that happening again. Jose Bautista was a one-year wonder. I give them credit for finding a team stupid enough to take Vernon Wells and his contract, but replacing him with Juan Rivera isn't really an upgrade. And I'm not really sure about these planned moves of Bautista (an outfielder) to third base and Adam Lind (a DH) to first. Trading for Frank Francisco to be the closer was a smart move, but the rest of the bullpen is so shaky, I'm not sure how many games there will be for him to close. And they traded away their best starter, Shaun Marcum. (Side note about the starters, Kyle Drabek shouldn't be allowed to wear No. 4. They really need to make some sort of rule prohibiting pitchers from wearing single-digit numbers.) Ricky Romero's good, but there's not much behind him. In the AL East, that's a problem. I think Toronto regressed and Baltimore improved enough to drop the Blue Jays into the cellar.
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis-CF, Aaron Hill-2B, Jose Bautista-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Juan Rivera-LF, Travis Snider-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, J.P. Arencibia-C, Yunel Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch
Projected Record: 74-88
Up next, the AL Central.
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