With Opening Day right around the corner (Opening Day should be on a Monday, not a Thursday, but that's a blog for another day), it's time to conclude our 10-day, six-blog journey that has been my 2011 baseball preview. Some might even say that I'm saving the best for last, since the defending World Champions call the NL West home. While this is the Giants' division to lose, I don't think they'll run away with the NL West title. But that doesn't mean they'll be challenged until the final day of the season again, either.
1. San Francisco Giants-Somewhat unexpectedly, the Giants came out of nowhere last season to win their first World Series title since moving to California in 1958. But when they decided to make the transition from Barry Bonds' team to one built on awesome young pitching, you kind of saw that coming eventually. The thing that made their 2010 World Series championship so wonderful, though, was that outside of the pitching staff, they don't really have many stars. Buster Posey is going to be, but did anybody really expect him to be THAT good as a rookie? Aubrey Huff was picked up off the scrap heap and ended up an MVP candidate and a World Champion. The Giants were wise to re-sign him as quickly as they possibly could this offseason. Only two World Series starters don't return. One is World Series MVP Edgar Renteria, but they replaced him with Miguel Tejada, who's basically the same player defensively and hits for a little more power. Jose Uribe is also gone, which gives the third base job back to the guy with the best nickname in baseball--"Kung Fu Panda" Pablo Sandoval, who was relegated to pinch-hitting duty in the playoffs and had a grand total of three at-bats in the World Series. Everyone else is back, and super-utility guy Mark DeRosa returns from injury. He played so sporadically last season that DeRosa's return is just like adding him as a free agent. But the pitching staff remains the bread and butter of this team. San Francisco has the only staff in the National League that can go toe-to-toe with the Phillies, as the proved in the NLCS. Tim Lincecum is still in need of a haircut, but it doesn't change the fact he's a ridiculous pitcher. Then throw in Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. Oh yeah, and Barry Zito's the FIFTH starter! Closer Brian Wilson and his ridiculos black beard will start the season on the DL, but they should be able to get by without him for a little while. The Giants can weather injuries to one or two position players, but an injury to one of those starters (especially Lincecum, who's an arm injury waiting to happen, or Cain) is the only thing that can derail this train on its way back to the playoffs.
Projected Lineup: Andres Torres-CF; Freddy Sanchez-2B; Buster Posey-C; Aubrey Huff-1B; Pat Burrell-LF; Miguel Tejada-SS; Cody Ross-RF; Pablo Sandoval-3B
Projected Rotation: Tim Lincecum; Matt Cain; Madison Bumgarner; Jonathan Sanchez; Barry Zito
Projected Record: 97-65
2. Colorado Rockies-In a tight call over the Dodgers, I'm picking the Rockies to finish second in the NL West. I think there's just too much talent in Colorado. Let's start with Carlos Gonzalez, who came virtually out of nowhere in the second half of last season to join Albert and Joey Votto in the MVP conversation. Now everybody knows about CarGo. I just wish those of us outside of the Mountain Time Zone would get the opportunity to see him more often. Joining him in the outfield is supremely talented center fielder Dexter Fowler. With CarGo, Fower and all-star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who's on the verge of becoming a superstar, anchoring the lineup, runs aren't going to be hard to come by in Colorado (it's not like they were anyway, but they won't need the thin air to score). Even though he's pushing 40, Todd Helton, the Rockies' all-time greatest player, still puts up consistent numbers, and this year they'll put another rocking chair in the locker room for new acquision Ty Wigginton (who was an all-star last season in Baltimore) to occupy. As always, the Rockies' Achilles heel might be their pitching staff. Ubaldo Jimenez was dominant in the first half of last season and started the All-Star Game before doing absolutely nothing in the second half. To be the ace of a staff, you need to pitch like it for six months, not three. The rest of the rotation is questionable. However, Huston Street is one of the best closers in the National League, and he anchors a pretty solid bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-CF; Jose Lopez-2B; Carlos Gonzalez-LF; Todd Helton-1B; Troy Tulowitzki-SS; Seth Smith-RF; Chris Iannetta-C; Ian Stewart-3B
Projected Rotation: Ubaldo Jimenez; Jorge De La Rosa; Aaron Cook; Jhoulys Chacin; Jason Hammel
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Los Angeles Dodgers-Donnie Baseball, you were a great Yankee. Now we get to see if you can manage. Replacing Joe Torre is quite a task (just ask Joe Girardi), but Torre couldn't win with better Dodgers teams than this one, so how much can really be expected from Mattingly? It's not that the Dodgers are bad. The Giants are just better. And this crap with the McCourts' divorce is going to drag the franchise down for as long as it continues. James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are all in their prime, but the guys around them are all role players. Rafael Furcal and Juan Uribe are solid up the middle, but I'm not sure about Uribe at second base and Furcal seems to only play well when he wants to. I like the addition of Rod Barajas (I don't even know who the Dodgers' catcher was last season), but I'm not sure about the signing of Marcus Thames or the plan to start him in left field. Thames was good as the Yankees' primary right-handed pinch hitter last season, and I think that's the role he's best suited to. The guys they signed (Jay Gibbons, Tony Gwynn Jr., Dioner Navarro) to be pinch hitters are exactly that. Pinch hitters. However, the Dodgers have a very solid starting rotation, which is the second-best in this division. It's a nice mix of young guys (Clayton Kershaw, Clay Billingsley) and veterans (Ted Lilly, Jon Garland) with a Japanese guy (Hiroki Kuroda) thrown in. Jonathan Broxton is one of the best closers in baseball.
Projected Lineup: Rafael Furcal-SS; Juan Uribe-2B; Andre Ethier-RF; James Loney-1B; Matt Kemp-CF; Marcus Thames-LF; Casey Blake-3B; Rod Barajas-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw; Clay Billingsley; Ted Lilly; Hiroki Kuroda; Jon Garland
Projected Record: 88-74
4. San Diego Padres-I'm not sure how the Padres almost won this division last season. Their team consisted of one player, Adrian Gonzalez, who's since been traded to Boston. With Gonzalez gone, their star power consists of former all-stars Ryan Ludwick and Orlando Hudson, who don't exactly excite you. San Diego was the landing place of former Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett, an actual above-average Major League player in his prime. But for a team that couldn't score even when it had an all-star first baseman, I'm not sure how much the addition of a singles-hitting middle infielder is going to help. However, Petco Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball, and pitching is how San Diego was actually able to stay in contention last season (I think). They used to have Jake Peavy. He's on the White Sox now. Nowadays, the San Diego pitching staff is anchored by the likes of Tim Stauffer and Clayton Richard. Mat Latos is good, but he'll start the season on the DL. A decent bullpen featuring Luke Gregerson and Chad Qualls bridges the gap between the starters and all-star closer Heath Bell, who needs to convert every save opportunity he gets, because there might not be that many. Teams that are randomly good have a tendency to fall back closer to where they belong the following season. Expect that to happen with the 2011 Padres. San Diego managed to stay in the race until September last year. That won't happen again.
Projected Lineup: Cameron Maybin-CF; Jason Bartlett-SS; Ryan Ludwick-LF; Brad Hawpe-1B; Will Venable-RF; Chase Headley-3B; Orlando Hudson-2B; Nick Hundley-C
Projected Rotation: Mat Latos; Tim Stauffer; Clayton Richard; Aaron Harang; Dustin Moseley
Projected Record: 71-91
5. Arizona Diamondbacks-The Diamondbacks are hosting the All-Star Game this season, which means their fans will get to see one game featuring actual major league stars this season. As for the other 81 games at Chase Field (or whatever it's called now), different story. Chris Young and Justin Upton might as well be Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence (considering the Diamondbacks and Astros have basically the same uniforms, they could be interchangable and I don't think anybody would notice). They're legitimate potential stars stuck on a team that's making no effort to win. Arizona doesn't have a terrible lineup, and the team's strikeout total should drop by about half now that Mark Reynolds is gone, but they have no pitching. Armando Galarraga, he of the almost-perfect game, is now a Diamondback, but that's about it for the rotation. The rest of them are either castoffs from good teams (Ian Kennedy-Yankees, Joe Saunders-Angels) or guys you've never heard of (Daniel Hudson, Barry Enright). The closer is J.J. Putz, who was good as the Mariners closer a couple of years ago before going to the Mets as a setup guy and ending up like pretty much anybody who signs with the Mets as a free agent. It's the 10th anniversary of their 2001 World Championship, which means the best team in Diamondbacks history will be on the field at Chase Field at some point this season. Except those guys are all retired, and they'll only be there for one game. If you get Diamondbacks season tickets, you'll get to be there for that reunion. And you'll probably get to go to the All-Star Game, too. Those might be the only reasons to buy Diamondbacks season tickets.
Projected Lineup: Chris Young-CF; Kelly Johnson-2B; Stephen Drew-SS; Russell Branyan-1B; Justin Upton-RF; Melvin Mora-3B; Miguel Montero-C; Gerardo Parra-LF
Projected Rotation: Ian Kennedy; Daniel Hudson; Joe Saunders; Barry Enright; Armando Galarraga
Projected Record: 63-99
So there you have it, all six divisions have been broken down. In the playoffs, I'm taking the Red Sox over the A's and the Yankees over the Tigers in the ALDS, and the Red Sox over the Yankees in the ALCS. In the National League, I'm going Phillies over Brewers, Giants over Braves and Giants over Phillies in the NLCS rematch. And as much as it pains me to say it, I'm picking the Red Sox over the Giants in the 2011 World Series. But that's not until October. All that matters now is that it's baseball season. Play Ball!
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Baseball Preview: NL Central
As promised, my pick to win the NL Central is a surprise. This is probably the tightest division in baseball, and the top four teams might be separated by only a couple of games. In a close division race, I wouldn't be surprised to see any of three different teams win it. After their unexpected division title last season, Cincinnati is a popular pick to repeat, but for some reason I'm not entirely sold on the Reds. And Adam Wainwright's injury probably knocks the Cardinals out of contention, which leaves us with one team...
1. Milwaukee Brewers-Yes, the Brewers are my pick to win the NL Central. All offseason, I was sitting there thinking, "The Brewers might actually be pretty good this year." And in a division without a dominant team, I think they're the best of the lot. Prince Fielder is a free agent at the end of the season, which means it's pretty much now or never for Milwaukee. He's really good. So is Ryan Braun. I'm not sure how Braun starts the All-Star Game every year, but there's no denying he can hit. Joining them in the heart of the lineup are Corey Hart and Casey McGehee. Hart's been an all-star, and McGehee can flat hit. Add in Rickie Weeks, Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betancourt and you get a pretty decent lineup. They've got the guys who can get on base ahead of Fielder, Braun and Hart, who can all crush the ball. Plus, they added Nyjer Morgan as a backup outfielder, which was a great move. But the Brewers don't really need to score that many runs. They've upgraded their pitching significantly, which is why I like them in this division. Zack Greinke looked crazy for choosing Milwaukee as a free agent destination, but the Brewers have three other quality starters behind him. Shaun Marcum held his own in the AL East. Now we get to see how good he really can be when he doesn't have to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays regularly. Yovani Gallardo had 14 wins last season and Randy Wolf provides a valuable veteran presence. I'm not kidding. The Brewers are going to be good.
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF; Yuniesky Betancourt-SS; Prince Fielder-1B; Ryan Braun-LF; Corey Hart-RF; Casey McGehee-3B; Rickie Weeks-2B; Jonathan Lucroy-C
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke (starting season on DL); Shaun Marcum; Yovani Gallardo; Randy Wolf; Chris Narveson; Sergio Mitre
Projected Record: 88-74
2. Cincinnati Reds-As great as it was, the Reds' success last season was so completely random that I'm going to need proof it can happen again. However, personnel-wise, they're capable. Cincinnati returns pretty much its entire team. The only starter who's gone is shortstop Orlando Cabrera, but they replaced him with World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Renteria may be 58 years old, but he still represents an upgrade over Cabrera. Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen were all-stars last year, and everyone knows the story with Joey Votto. But that's exactly why I'm not sure Cincinnati can repeat as division champions. Votto's going to put up his Votto-like numbers, but will Rolen and Phillips put up all-star numbers again? I'm not sure. Reality set in against the Phillies in the Division Series and we all saw what happened. Even still, the Reds have the best lineup in the NL Central, and they're going to score a bunch of runs. The top of the rotation consists of three quality arms in Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Cueto will start the season on the DL (and so will No. 4 starter Homer Bailey), but the arms behind them (Mike Leake and Travis Wood) can certainly hold their own in his absence. The very good Reds bullpen is anchored by all-star closer Francisco Cordero, and don't forget about Aroldis Chapman. Cincinnati caught lightning in a bottle last season. I'm not saying it can't happen again. I'm just not positive it will.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Phillips-2B; Edgar Renteria-SS; Joey Votto-1B; Scott Rolen-3B; Jay Bruce-RF; Drew Stubbs-CF; Johnny Gomes-LF; Ramon Hernandez-C
Projected Rotation: Bronson Arroyo; Edinson Volquez; Johnny Cueto (starting season on DL); Homer Bailey (starting season on DL); Travis Wood; Mike Leake
Projected Record: 87-75
3. St. Louis Cardinals-As tempted as I was to put the Cubs in front of the Cardinals, I simply couldn't do it. In what's possibly Albert's last season in St. Louis (it's not), the Cardinals went from potential division favorites to likely also-rans all because of one guy--Adam Wainwright. Wainwright's injury gives the Cardinals exactly one established starting pitcher, and it's not exactly like Chris Carpenter is the most durable guy in the world. Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse are good, but they won't exactly make up for the loss of Wainwright. The Cardinals are somewhat offensively challenged, but at least they have Albert. Even in his bad years, Albert puts up Pujols-like numbers. That's a good thing, becuse the Cardinals don't really have much besides him. Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina are still all-star caliber players, but their big off-season addition was Lance Berkman to play right field, and Berkman has gotten old in a hurry in the past couple years. Tony LaRussa always manages to figure out something and keeps the Cardinals competitive even when people think they aren't going to be. While they're not the best team in the division by a long shot entering the season, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cardinals find a way to win the NL Central. When you have the best player in the game, the supporting cast only needs to be good. And Albert's supporting cast is better than the ones Barry Bonds had in San Francisco, and one of those Giants teams went to the World Series.
Projected Lineup: Colby Rasmus-CF; Skip Schumaker-2B; Albert Pujols-1B; Matt Holliday-LF; Lance Berkman-RF; Ryan Theriot-SS; Yadier Molina-C; David Freese-3B
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter; Jake Westbrook; Jaime Garcia; Kyle Lohse; Kyle McClellan
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Chicago Cubs-Just like the Orioles started to resemble a Major League franchise once Buck Showalter took over last season, the same thing happened with the Cubs and Mike Quade. There are two main differences between the Cubs and the Orioles, though. The Cubs are a lot more talented, and the Cubs don't play in the AL East. If they ever put everything together, the Cubs could win 100 games and run away with this division. As it is, 85 wins will probably be enough to be competitive. They still have to pay the ridiculous contracts of Kosuke Fukudome, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez (who at least is actually still good), but they play in Chicago so it's not like they don't have the money to do that. And those three guys are less useless than the guys the Mets are stuck paying, which is a plus. Carlos Pena's a good pickup. So is Blake DeWitt. Add them to a lineup that already features Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto, as well as the aforementioned trio, and the Cubs should be able to score plenty of runs this season. Matt Garza's a great addition at the front of the rotation to create a nice 1-2 punch with Ryan Dempster. I'm not really sure why Carlos Zambrano's still on the team, but if he stays not crazy, he could return to his all-star form of a couple years ago. Kerry Wood's back to keep Carlos Marmol company in the bullpen, which gives the Cubs as good a late inning tandem as any team in the National League. They could contend, but they're the Cubs. They won't.
Projected Lineup: Alfonso Soriano-LF; Starlin Castro-SS; Carlos Pena-1B; Aramis Ramirez-3B; Marlon Byrd-CF; Kosuke Fukudome-RF; Geovany Soto-C; Blake DeWitt-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Garza; Ryan Dempster; Carlos Zambrano; Randy Wells; Andrew Cashner
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Houston Astros-Not only are the Astros bad, they're boring. The only two players on this team that are even worth the price of admission are Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Carlos Lee makes more than the rest of the team even though he hasn't been good in about five years. Other than that, I'm not even sure who plays for the Houston Astros. I think they went out and good Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, but those guys are backups on any other team, and frankly I'm not sure how much they're going to help. Houston's not going to hit. It's that simple. As for the pitching staff, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez aren't Mike Scott and Nolan Ryan. Closer Brandon Lyon is decent, but good closers are irrelevant on bad teams. This team is a far cry from the Astros squads that were competitive every year from the mid-90s to the mid-00s. If not for the good fortune of being in the same division as the Pirates, the Astros would be destined for last place. That's really about all I've got about Houston. Sorry. Just know they're not going to be very good.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF; Clint Barmes-SS; Hunter Pence-RF; Carlos Lee-LF; Chris Johnson-3B; Brett Wallace-1B; Bill Hall-2B; Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Brett Myers; Wandy Rodriguez; J.A. Happ; Bud Norris; Nelson Figueroa
Projected Record: 68-94
6. Pittsburgh Pirates-Quick, name a member of the Pirates other than Andrew McCutchen. Can't do it, can you? Therein lies the problem with baseball's most sorry team. At least they're trying. Hiring Clint Hurdle as manager was a giant step forward, but the player personnel is Pittsburgh's real problem. I really don't understand how a team that's continually this bad (and thus continues to get really high draft picks) doesn't have any minor league talent that can contribute at the major league level. The guys they have are decent, but you've never heard of any of them. The one free agent they actually managed to convince to come to Pittsburgh was Lyle Overbay, who wore out his welcome in Toronto, but is a good veteran guy to have on this team. The rotation is anchored by ex-Padre Kevin Correia, who I didn't even realize was on the Pirates now. And I think Paul Maholm will eventually be a valuable starter for whatever team he goes to next. But the bottom line is that it'll take a miracle for Pittsburgh to avoid a third straight 100-loss season. At least they play in a nice ballpark. And Albert Pujols comes to visit nine times a year. Don't worry Pittsburgh faithful, if the lockout is settled in time, it's only five months until the first Steelers game.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-CF; Neil Walker-2B; Garrett Jones-RF; Lyle Overbay-1B; Pedro Alvarez-3B; Jose Tabata-LF; Ronny Cedeno-SS; Chris Snyder-C
Projected Rotation: Kevin Correia; Paul Maholm; Ross Ohlendorf; Charlie Morton; James McDonald
Projected Record: 59-103
Our next installment will be the sixth and final part of the 2011 baseball preview, a look at the NL West.
1. Milwaukee Brewers-Yes, the Brewers are my pick to win the NL Central. All offseason, I was sitting there thinking, "The Brewers might actually be pretty good this year." And in a division without a dominant team, I think they're the best of the lot. Prince Fielder is a free agent at the end of the season, which means it's pretty much now or never for Milwaukee. He's really good. So is Ryan Braun. I'm not sure how Braun starts the All-Star Game every year, but there's no denying he can hit. Joining them in the heart of the lineup are Corey Hart and Casey McGehee. Hart's been an all-star, and McGehee can flat hit. Add in Rickie Weeks, Carlos Gomez and Yuniesky Betancourt and you get a pretty decent lineup. They've got the guys who can get on base ahead of Fielder, Braun and Hart, who can all crush the ball. Plus, they added Nyjer Morgan as a backup outfielder, which was a great move. But the Brewers don't really need to score that many runs. They've upgraded their pitching significantly, which is why I like them in this division. Zack Greinke looked crazy for choosing Milwaukee as a free agent destination, but the Brewers have three other quality starters behind him. Shaun Marcum held his own in the AL East. Now we get to see how good he really can be when he doesn't have to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays regularly. Yovani Gallardo had 14 wins last season and Randy Wolf provides a valuable veteran presence. I'm not kidding. The Brewers are going to be good.
Projected Lineup: Carlos Gomez-CF; Yuniesky Betancourt-SS; Prince Fielder-1B; Ryan Braun-LF; Corey Hart-RF; Casey McGehee-3B; Rickie Weeks-2B; Jonathan Lucroy-C
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke (starting season on DL); Shaun Marcum; Yovani Gallardo; Randy Wolf; Chris Narveson; Sergio Mitre
Projected Record: 88-74
2. Cincinnati Reds-As great as it was, the Reds' success last season was so completely random that I'm going to need proof it can happen again. However, personnel-wise, they're capable. Cincinnati returns pretty much its entire team. The only starter who's gone is shortstop Orlando Cabrera, but they replaced him with World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Renteria may be 58 years old, but he still represents an upgrade over Cabrera. Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen were all-stars last year, and everyone knows the story with Joey Votto. But that's exactly why I'm not sure Cincinnati can repeat as division champions. Votto's going to put up his Votto-like numbers, but will Rolen and Phillips put up all-star numbers again? I'm not sure. Reality set in against the Phillies in the Division Series and we all saw what happened. Even still, the Reds have the best lineup in the NL Central, and they're going to score a bunch of runs. The top of the rotation consists of three quality arms in Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. Cueto will start the season on the DL (and so will No. 4 starter Homer Bailey), but the arms behind them (Mike Leake and Travis Wood) can certainly hold their own in his absence. The very good Reds bullpen is anchored by all-star closer Francisco Cordero, and don't forget about Aroldis Chapman. Cincinnati caught lightning in a bottle last season. I'm not saying it can't happen again. I'm just not positive it will.
Projected Lineup: Brandon Phillips-2B; Edgar Renteria-SS; Joey Votto-1B; Scott Rolen-3B; Jay Bruce-RF; Drew Stubbs-CF; Johnny Gomes-LF; Ramon Hernandez-C
Projected Rotation: Bronson Arroyo; Edinson Volquez; Johnny Cueto (starting season on DL); Homer Bailey (starting season on DL); Travis Wood; Mike Leake
Projected Record: 87-75
3. St. Louis Cardinals-As tempted as I was to put the Cubs in front of the Cardinals, I simply couldn't do it. In what's possibly Albert's last season in St. Louis (it's not), the Cardinals went from potential division favorites to likely also-rans all because of one guy--Adam Wainwright. Wainwright's injury gives the Cardinals exactly one established starting pitcher, and it's not exactly like Chris Carpenter is the most durable guy in the world. Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse are good, but they won't exactly make up for the loss of Wainwright. The Cardinals are somewhat offensively challenged, but at least they have Albert. Even in his bad years, Albert puts up Pujols-like numbers. That's a good thing, becuse the Cardinals don't really have much besides him. Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina are still all-star caliber players, but their big off-season addition was Lance Berkman to play right field, and Berkman has gotten old in a hurry in the past couple years. Tony LaRussa always manages to figure out something and keeps the Cardinals competitive even when people think they aren't going to be. While they're not the best team in the division by a long shot entering the season, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Cardinals find a way to win the NL Central. When you have the best player in the game, the supporting cast only needs to be good. And Albert's supporting cast is better than the ones Barry Bonds had in San Francisco, and one of those Giants teams went to the World Series.
Projected Lineup: Colby Rasmus-CF; Skip Schumaker-2B; Albert Pujols-1B; Matt Holliday-LF; Lance Berkman-RF; Ryan Theriot-SS; Yadier Molina-C; David Freese-3B
Projected Rotation: Chris Carpenter; Jake Westbrook; Jaime Garcia; Kyle Lohse; Kyle McClellan
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Chicago Cubs-Just like the Orioles started to resemble a Major League franchise once Buck Showalter took over last season, the same thing happened with the Cubs and Mike Quade. There are two main differences between the Cubs and the Orioles, though. The Cubs are a lot more talented, and the Cubs don't play in the AL East. If they ever put everything together, the Cubs could win 100 games and run away with this division. As it is, 85 wins will probably be enough to be competitive. They still have to pay the ridiculous contracts of Kosuke Fukudome, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez (who at least is actually still good), but they play in Chicago so it's not like they don't have the money to do that. And those three guys are less useless than the guys the Mets are stuck paying, which is a plus. Carlos Pena's a good pickup. So is Blake DeWitt. Add them to a lineup that already features Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto, as well as the aforementioned trio, and the Cubs should be able to score plenty of runs this season. Matt Garza's a great addition at the front of the rotation to create a nice 1-2 punch with Ryan Dempster. I'm not really sure why Carlos Zambrano's still on the team, but if he stays not crazy, he could return to his all-star form of a couple years ago. Kerry Wood's back to keep Carlos Marmol company in the bullpen, which gives the Cubs as good a late inning tandem as any team in the National League. They could contend, but they're the Cubs. They won't.
Projected Lineup: Alfonso Soriano-LF; Starlin Castro-SS; Carlos Pena-1B; Aramis Ramirez-3B; Marlon Byrd-CF; Kosuke Fukudome-RF; Geovany Soto-C; Blake DeWitt-2B
Projected Rotation: Matt Garza; Ryan Dempster; Carlos Zambrano; Randy Wells; Andrew Cashner
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Houston Astros-Not only are the Astros bad, they're boring. The only two players on this team that are even worth the price of admission are Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence. Carlos Lee makes more than the rest of the team even though he hasn't been good in about five years. Other than that, I'm not even sure who plays for the Houston Astros. I think they went out and good Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, but those guys are backups on any other team, and frankly I'm not sure how much they're going to help. Houston's not going to hit. It's that simple. As for the pitching staff, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez aren't Mike Scott and Nolan Ryan. Closer Brandon Lyon is decent, but good closers are irrelevant on bad teams. This team is a far cry from the Astros squads that were competitive every year from the mid-90s to the mid-00s. If not for the good fortune of being in the same division as the Pirates, the Astros would be destined for last place. That's really about all I've got about Houston. Sorry. Just know they're not going to be very good.
Projected Lineup: Michael Bourn-CF; Clint Barmes-SS; Hunter Pence-RF; Carlos Lee-LF; Chris Johnson-3B; Brett Wallace-1B; Bill Hall-2B; Humberto Quintero-C
Projected Rotation: Brett Myers; Wandy Rodriguez; J.A. Happ; Bud Norris; Nelson Figueroa
Projected Record: 68-94
6. Pittsburgh Pirates-Quick, name a member of the Pirates other than Andrew McCutchen. Can't do it, can you? Therein lies the problem with baseball's most sorry team. At least they're trying. Hiring Clint Hurdle as manager was a giant step forward, but the player personnel is Pittsburgh's real problem. I really don't understand how a team that's continually this bad (and thus continues to get really high draft picks) doesn't have any minor league talent that can contribute at the major league level. The guys they have are decent, but you've never heard of any of them. The one free agent they actually managed to convince to come to Pittsburgh was Lyle Overbay, who wore out his welcome in Toronto, but is a good veteran guy to have on this team. The rotation is anchored by ex-Padre Kevin Correia, who I didn't even realize was on the Pirates now. And I think Paul Maholm will eventually be a valuable starter for whatever team he goes to next. But the bottom line is that it'll take a miracle for Pittsburgh to avoid a third straight 100-loss season. At least they play in a nice ballpark. And Albert Pujols comes to visit nine times a year. Don't worry Pittsburgh faithful, if the lockout is settled in time, it's only five months until the first Steelers game.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-CF; Neil Walker-2B; Garrett Jones-RF; Lyle Overbay-1B; Pedro Alvarez-3B; Jose Tabata-LF; Ronny Cedeno-SS; Chris Snyder-C
Projected Rotation: Kevin Correia; Paul Maholm; Ross Ohlendorf; Charlie Morton; James McDonald
Projected Record: 59-103
Our next installment will be the sixth and final part of the 2011 baseball preview, a look at the NL West.
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Baseball Preview: NL East
I'm done with my division-by-division preview of the American League, so now it's time to move on to the Senior Circuit. Now, as a Yankees fan, I don't watch the National League anywhere near as much as I watch the AL. But that doesn't mean I don't know what's going on in the NL. And it certainly doesn't mean that I don't feel qualified doing an NL East preview. With that in mind, here we go:
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Yes, this is an easy one. The Phillies have been the best team in this division, if not the entire National League, for the last few years, and it would be really surprising if that changed this season. They already had one of the best starting rotations in the National League, then added Cliff Lee to give them FOUR! guys who could be No. 1 starters (and have been at some point). Seriously, this is the only team in baseball that can get away with Lee not starting on Opening Day, but when you have Roy Halladay, picking an Opening Day starter isn't hard. Just in case they actually need it, the Phillies have a stacked bullpen, too. Closer Brad Lidge is hurt, but they don't lose anything with Ryan Madson closing, and former Rays closer Danys Baez has joined the fray. The lineup is so good that they let Jayson Werth walk away as a free agent and handed the right field job to rookie Domonic Brown, who's an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Chase Utley is going to start the season on the DL, so they signed former Mets space taker-upper Luis Castillo (who's 60 percent there on his journey through the NL East) to hold his place until he comes back. The only potential flaw I see in this lineup (and it's a small one) is the lack of right-handed hitters. Rollins and Victorio are switch-hitters, but the three main power guys (Howard, Utley, Ibanez) are all lefties, which means you can bring in a lefty out of the bullpen to knock out all three of them, which the Giants did in the NLCS last year. Even still, that flaw is minor. The Phillies were horrible in the beginning of the season last year and still ended up winning 97 games. I'd be surprised if they don't win 100 this year.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS; Placido Polanco-3B; Chase Utley-2B; Ryan Howard-1B; Raul Ibanez-LF; Shane Victorino-CF; Domonic Brown-RF; Carlos Ruiz-C
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay; Cliff Lee; Cole Hamels; Roy Oswalt; Joe Blanton
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Atlanta Braves-The Braves won the wild card last season, sending Bobby Cox out in style. A new manager shouldn't be the story for a team going into a new season, but when the guy he's replacing was the manager for 20 years, it can't not be a story. The new guy in charge is Fredi Gonzalez, who I'm pretty sure is a Bobby Cox clone, which means things won't really change that much in Atlanta. Derrek Lee left as a free agent, but the Braves are replacing him at first base with rookie Freedie Freeman. But considering how well Jason Heyward did last season, it's not really much of a risk to put Freeman there. (If you haven't yet, check out the SI article on Heyward and Freeman. It's fantastic.) The best move they made in the offseason was the addition of Dan Uggla at second base, then quickly locking him up to a long-term deal. That frees up Martin Prado to move to left field, where he'll replace Melky Cabrera, who didn't work out that well in Atlanta. Super-utility guy Omar Infante is gone, which could create problems when Chipper's yearly injury pops up. But Chipper Jones, who was on his retirement tour when he tore his ACL last season, deserves to go out on top. The pitching staff anchored by Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe can certainly help that happen. The Braves don't have enough to get past the Phillies, but another wild card berth could certainly be in the cards.
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-CF; Martin Prado-LF; Jason Heyward-RF; Chipper Jones-3B; Dan Uggla-2B; Brian McCann-C; Freddie Freeman-1B; Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson; Tommy Hanson; Derek Lowe; Jair Jurrjens; Brandon Beachy
Projected Record: 92-70 (Wild Card)
3. Florida Marlins-In their final year as the "Florida" Marlins, their lack of dysfunction gives them a slight edge over the Mets for third place. Yes, they lost Uggla, their second-best player, but their best player is still Hanley Ramirez. I'm not sure anybody outside Miami (or even that many people in Miami) actually knows how good Hanley Ramirez is, but he's a consistent .300-20-75 guy (and that RBI total would be higher if there were actually other guys in the Marlins lineup for him to drive in). Those other guys are coming, though. Chris Coghlan was the Rookie of the Year two years ago, Gaby Sanchez actually got two first-place votes in Rookie of the Year voting last season (why I don't know), and Mike Stanton has the potential to be a perennial all-star. They replaced Uggla with Infante, who's not as good, but they also brought in all-star catcher John Buck, which was a good move. Josh Johnson is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball and Ricky Nolasco is a solid No. 2 starter. But the rest of the rotation behind them is kind of shaky. Javy Vazquez isn't a Yankee anymore (Bye!), but he doesn't suck when he's in the National League, so this might be a steal. Anibal Sanchez, the No. 4 starter, has thrown a no-hitter in his career, but he's just that, a No. 4 starter. The closer is Leo Nunez, who I've never heard of. The Marlins have tried to be good twice in their history, and they won the World Series both times. They don't plan on being good this season, but when they finally get out of that gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls next year, look out!
Projected Lineup: Chris Coghlan-CF; Omar Infante-2B; Hanley Ramirez-SS; Gaby Sanchez-1B; John Buck-C; Mike Stanton-RF; Logan Morrison-LF; Wes Helms-3B
Projected Rotation: Josh Johnson; Ricky Nolasco; Javy Vazquez; Anibal Sanchez; Chris Volstad
Projected Record: 80-82
4. New York Mets-Ah, our beloved New York Mess. The team that brings a new meaning to the word "dysfunction." I'll give them credit for this--they're so unintentionally hilarious that they can't stay off the back page of the papers, which is tough to do in New York. Seriously, they're like driving by a car accident or watching a Charlie Sheen webcast. You don't really want to see it, but you just can't look away. Any-hoo, Bernie Madoff's investors have been getting what they paid for in the likes of Ollie Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran, two of whom are now gone. Problem is, Beltran's still there. And it's not like they can trade him, so Mets fans will be subjected to one more year of him before they can finally say good riddance. Beltran's moving to right this year "for the good of the team," but what's really good for the team would be doing what they did with the other two--continue paying him to be useless while he plays for somebody else. But the Mets' best players are really good. How does a team with the likes of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Ike Davis continue to not win? Seriously. Josh Thole isn't good enough to be a starting catcher and, as useless as he was, Castillo at least stood there at second base. I don't really know who they plan on having do that now. But the Mets' real problem is that they only have one starter, who happens to be out until at least June. Mike Pelfrey should've been an all-star last season, but R.A. Dickey's a one-year wonder and I'm not really sure about Chris Young and Chris Capuano's ability to stay both healthy and good. The bullpen is anchored by Francisco Rodriguez. Need I say more?
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS; Angel Pagan-CF; Carlos Beltran-RF; David Wright-3B; Jason Bay-LF; Ike Davis-1B; Brad Emaus-2B; Josh Thole-C
Projected Rotation: (Johan Santana doesn't return until June) Mike Pelfrey; Jonathan Neise; R.A. Dickey; Chris Young; Chris Capuano
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Washington Nationals-Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John surgery last year, so stop polishing his plaque in Cooperstown. Without him this year, the Nationals aren't going to be good (although, in fairness, they wouldn't be very good with him either). But I give them credit for trying. No, Jayson isn't Werth the money they're giving him, but they at least went out and got a big-name free agent. Add him to Ryan Zimmerman and Pudge Rodriguez (Bryce Harper isn't there just yet), and the Nationals actually have a formidable middle of the lineup. Plus, they added Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel, too. Both of those guys could help this team. However, trading Nyjer Morgan seriously limits Washington's depth, which wasn't that great to begin with. The Strasburg-less rotation is anchored by Livan Hernandez, who wears No. 61 because he's 61 years old. Hernandez is the franchise's last remaining link to their time as the Montreal Expos, and I think that nostalgic feeling might be the only reason why they keep him around. John Lannan has been a solid member of this rotation for a couple years and Jordan Zimmermann is the second best Zimmerman(n) on the team. Tom Gorzelanny was a Pirate, and now he's a National. This guy can't catch a break! For his sake, I hope Chien-Ming Wang is able to finally get healthy and regain the form from his Yankee days, but sadly, I'm not sure that's ever going to happen. I don't think Drew Storen is ready to be a major league closer, but in Washington, where there's going to be a maximum of three save opportunities a week, that might not matter. For years, Senators fans had a saying, "First In War, First In Peace, Last In the American League." Nationals fans can keep the saying and just change the league, 'cause it's the same old story.
Projected Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS; Danny Espinosa-2B; Jayson Werth-RF; Ryan Zimmerman-3B; Adam LaRoche-1B; Ivan Rodriguez-C; Rick Ankiel-CF; Roger Bernadina-LF
Projected Rotation: John Lannan; Livan Hernandez; Jordan Zimmermann; Jason Marquis; Tom Gorzelanny
Projected Record: 68-94
So there you have it. Probably similar to everybody else's NL East projections. I promise you, though, our next installment, the NL Central, will have some surprises.
1. Philadelphia Phillies-Yes, this is an easy one. The Phillies have been the best team in this division, if not the entire National League, for the last few years, and it would be really surprising if that changed this season. They already had one of the best starting rotations in the National League, then added Cliff Lee to give them FOUR! guys who could be No. 1 starters (and have been at some point). Seriously, this is the only team in baseball that can get away with Lee not starting on Opening Day, but when you have Roy Halladay, picking an Opening Day starter isn't hard. Just in case they actually need it, the Phillies have a stacked bullpen, too. Closer Brad Lidge is hurt, but they don't lose anything with Ryan Madson closing, and former Rays closer Danys Baez has joined the fray. The lineup is so good that they let Jayson Werth walk away as a free agent and handed the right field job to rookie Domonic Brown, who's an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. Chase Utley is going to start the season on the DL, so they signed former Mets space taker-upper Luis Castillo (who's 60 percent there on his journey through the NL East) to hold his place until he comes back. The only potential flaw I see in this lineup (and it's a small one) is the lack of right-handed hitters. Rollins and Victorio are switch-hitters, but the three main power guys (Howard, Utley, Ibanez) are all lefties, which means you can bring in a lefty out of the bullpen to knock out all three of them, which the Giants did in the NLCS last year. Even still, that flaw is minor. The Phillies were horrible in the beginning of the season last year and still ended up winning 97 games. I'd be surprised if they don't win 100 this year.
Projected Lineup: Jimmy Rollins-SS; Placido Polanco-3B; Chase Utley-2B; Ryan Howard-1B; Raul Ibanez-LF; Shane Victorino-CF; Domonic Brown-RF; Carlos Ruiz-C
Projected Rotation: Roy Halladay; Cliff Lee; Cole Hamels; Roy Oswalt; Joe Blanton
Projected Record: 103-59
2. Atlanta Braves-The Braves won the wild card last season, sending Bobby Cox out in style. A new manager shouldn't be the story for a team going into a new season, but when the guy he's replacing was the manager for 20 years, it can't not be a story. The new guy in charge is Fredi Gonzalez, who I'm pretty sure is a Bobby Cox clone, which means things won't really change that much in Atlanta. Derrek Lee left as a free agent, but the Braves are replacing him at first base with rookie Freedie Freeman. But considering how well Jason Heyward did last season, it's not really much of a risk to put Freeman there. (If you haven't yet, check out the SI article on Heyward and Freeman. It's fantastic.) The best move they made in the offseason was the addition of Dan Uggla at second base, then quickly locking him up to a long-term deal. That frees up Martin Prado to move to left field, where he'll replace Melky Cabrera, who didn't work out that well in Atlanta. Super-utility guy Omar Infante is gone, which could create problems when Chipper's yearly injury pops up. But Chipper Jones, who was on his retirement tour when he tore his ACL last season, deserves to go out on top. The pitching staff anchored by Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe can certainly help that happen. The Braves don't have enough to get past the Phillies, but another wild card berth could certainly be in the cards.
Projected Lineup: Nate McLouth-CF; Martin Prado-LF; Jason Heyward-RF; Chipper Jones-3B; Dan Uggla-2B; Brian McCann-C; Freddie Freeman-1B; Alex Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Tim Hudson; Tommy Hanson; Derek Lowe; Jair Jurrjens; Brandon Beachy
Projected Record: 92-70 (Wild Card)
3. Florida Marlins-In their final year as the "Florida" Marlins, their lack of dysfunction gives them a slight edge over the Mets for third place. Yes, they lost Uggla, their second-best player, but their best player is still Hanley Ramirez. I'm not sure anybody outside Miami (or even that many people in Miami) actually knows how good Hanley Ramirez is, but he's a consistent .300-20-75 guy (and that RBI total would be higher if there were actually other guys in the Marlins lineup for him to drive in). Those other guys are coming, though. Chris Coghlan was the Rookie of the Year two years ago, Gaby Sanchez actually got two first-place votes in Rookie of the Year voting last season (why I don't know), and Mike Stanton has the potential to be a perennial all-star. They replaced Uggla with Infante, who's not as good, but they also brought in all-star catcher John Buck, which was a good move. Josh Johnson is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball and Ricky Nolasco is a solid No. 2 starter. But the rest of the rotation behind them is kind of shaky. Javy Vazquez isn't a Yankee anymore (Bye!), but he doesn't suck when he's in the National League, so this might be a steal. Anibal Sanchez, the No. 4 starter, has thrown a no-hitter in his career, but he's just that, a No. 4 starter. The closer is Leo Nunez, who I've never heard of. The Marlins have tried to be good twice in their history, and they won the World Series both times. They don't plan on being good this season, but when they finally get out of that gigantic football stadium with orange seats and teal walls next year, look out!
Projected Lineup: Chris Coghlan-CF; Omar Infante-2B; Hanley Ramirez-SS; Gaby Sanchez-1B; John Buck-C; Mike Stanton-RF; Logan Morrison-LF; Wes Helms-3B
Projected Rotation: Josh Johnson; Ricky Nolasco; Javy Vazquez; Anibal Sanchez; Chris Volstad
Projected Record: 80-82
4. New York Mets-Ah, our beloved New York Mess. The team that brings a new meaning to the word "dysfunction." I'll give them credit for this--they're so unintentionally hilarious that they can't stay off the back page of the papers, which is tough to do in New York. Seriously, they're like driving by a car accident or watching a Charlie Sheen webcast. You don't really want to see it, but you just can't look away. Any-hoo, Bernie Madoff's investors have been getting what they paid for in the likes of Ollie Perez, Luis Castillo and Carlos Beltran, two of whom are now gone. Problem is, Beltran's still there. And it's not like they can trade him, so Mets fans will be subjected to one more year of him before they can finally say good riddance. Beltran's moving to right this year "for the good of the team," but what's really good for the team would be doing what they did with the other two--continue paying him to be useless while he plays for somebody else. But the Mets' best players are really good. How does a team with the likes of David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay and Ike Davis continue to not win? Seriously. Josh Thole isn't good enough to be a starting catcher and, as useless as he was, Castillo at least stood there at second base. I don't really know who they plan on having do that now. But the Mets' real problem is that they only have one starter, who happens to be out until at least June. Mike Pelfrey should've been an all-star last season, but R.A. Dickey's a one-year wonder and I'm not really sure about Chris Young and Chris Capuano's ability to stay both healthy and good. The bullpen is anchored by Francisco Rodriguez. Need I say more?
Projected Lineup: Jose Reyes-SS; Angel Pagan-CF; Carlos Beltran-RF; David Wright-3B; Jason Bay-LF; Ike Davis-1B; Brad Emaus-2B; Josh Thole-C
Projected Rotation: (Johan Santana doesn't return until June) Mike Pelfrey; Jonathan Neise; R.A. Dickey; Chris Young; Chris Capuano
Projected Record: 78-84
5. Washington Nationals-Stephen Strasburg had Tommy John surgery last year, so stop polishing his plaque in Cooperstown. Without him this year, the Nationals aren't going to be good (although, in fairness, they wouldn't be very good with him either). But I give them credit for trying. No, Jayson isn't Werth the money they're giving him, but they at least went out and got a big-name free agent. Add him to Ryan Zimmerman and Pudge Rodriguez (Bryce Harper isn't there just yet), and the Nationals actually have a formidable middle of the lineup. Plus, they added Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel, too. Both of those guys could help this team. However, trading Nyjer Morgan seriously limits Washington's depth, which wasn't that great to begin with. The Strasburg-less rotation is anchored by Livan Hernandez, who wears No. 61 because he's 61 years old. Hernandez is the franchise's last remaining link to their time as the Montreal Expos, and I think that nostalgic feeling might be the only reason why they keep him around. John Lannan has been a solid member of this rotation for a couple years and Jordan Zimmermann is the second best Zimmerman(n) on the team. Tom Gorzelanny was a Pirate, and now he's a National. This guy can't catch a break! For his sake, I hope Chien-Ming Wang is able to finally get healthy and regain the form from his Yankee days, but sadly, I'm not sure that's ever going to happen. I don't think Drew Storen is ready to be a major league closer, but in Washington, where there's going to be a maximum of three save opportunities a week, that might not matter. For years, Senators fans had a saying, "First In War, First In Peace, Last In the American League." Nationals fans can keep the saying and just change the league, 'cause it's the same old story.
Projected Lineup: Ian Desmond-SS; Danny Espinosa-2B; Jayson Werth-RF; Ryan Zimmerman-3B; Adam LaRoche-1B; Ivan Rodriguez-C; Rick Ankiel-CF; Roger Bernadina-LF
Projected Rotation: John Lannan; Livan Hernandez; Jordan Zimmermann; Jason Marquis; Tom Gorzelanny
Projected Record: 68-94
So there you have it. Probably similar to everybody else's NL East projections. I promise you, though, our next installment, the NL Central, will have some surprises.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Baseball Preview: AL West
In Part III of my 2011 baseball preview, it's time to wrap up the American League with a look at the AL West. This is an interesting division that includes, of course, the defending AL champion Rangers, as well as a Mariners team that might be the worst in the American League. Then there are the two California teams. Like I said, this division is interesting.
1. Oakland Athletics-After making the playoffs seemingly every year during the Moneyball era, the A's dropped off the scene for a little while as the Angels decided to remember that they play in the L.A. market and Oakland's best players were either traded away or left as free agents. But the A's are back with a vengance, and they might be the best team in this division. The reason why? Pitching. What else? Trevor Cahill headlines a very talented unheralded rotation that also includes this guy named Dallas Braden. Yes, he's the "other" guy (the one not named Halladay) who threw a perfect game last year. Plus, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez are very talented. The only knock on this rotation is that three of the four (all but Cahill) are left-handed. Closer Andrew Bailey's been an all-star in both of his major league seasons, and Oakland added Brian Fuentes (who I think is very overrated, but still) as a set-up guy. The pitching staff is going to need to carry the A's, though, because the lineup doesn't exactly scare you. They certainly don't have McGwire-Canseco lineup of the late 80s or even the Giambi-Tejada lineup of the early 2000s. In fact, their best power guy these days might be Kevin Kouzmanoff, who hit a whopping 16 home runs last season. But the Oakland Coliseum is a national park, so their lack of power is probably a good thing. With Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot and good contact guys like Mark Ellis and Josh Willingham behind him, the RBI guys (Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus) will have plenty of opportunities. Even still, the A's are going to win a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF; Mark Ellis-2B; David DeJesus-RF; Hideki Matsui-DH; Kevin Kouzmanoff-3B; Josh Willingham-LF; Kurt Suzuki-C; Daric Barton-1B; Cliff Pennington-SS
Projected Rotation: Trevor Cahill; Dallas Braden; Brett Anderson; Gio Gonzalez; Brandon McCarthy
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Texas Rangers-On paper, the Rangers are the best team in this division. Obviously. They won the pennant last year and return essentially their entire lineup, including the reigning MVP (Josh Hamilton). But the Rangers lost one key guy--Cliff Lee, which is why I give Oakland a slight edge in the AL West. There are other reasons, though. The first is Adrian Beltre. As I've said before, this signing makes absolutely no sense. He's not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, or Michael Young, and all you did by singing him was piss Young off. I'm not exactly sure where the "upgrade" is with Beltre. I'm also not sure about this proposed move of Hamilton to left with Julio Borbon taking over in center. That relegates David Murphy to pinch hitting duites, even though Borbon can't hit and Murphy can. They're also going to carry three catchers, which means they're going to look for at-bats for Mike Napoli pretty much anywhere. In other words, the Rangers went a little nuts on the spending and now have too many starting position players. This is similar to the situation Boston put itself in a few years ago when it added Casey Kotchman for no apparent reason at the trade deadline. But with all that being said, I think pitching will be the reason Oakland overtakes Texas in the AL West. The Rangers' pitching staff is good, but it's not the same without Cliff Lee. And who knows what kind of a toll all those innings in the playoffs last season will have? However, it was a wise decision to keep AL Rookie of the Year Pedro Feliz in the bullpen. Don't turn an all-star closer into a starter! Period.
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS; Ian Kinsler-2B; Josh Hamilton-LF; Adrian Beltre-3B; Nelson Cruz-RF; Michael Young-DH; Yorvit Torrealba-C; Mitch Moreland-1B; Julio Borbon-CF
Projected Rotation: C.J. Wilson; Colby Lewis; Tommy Hunter; Matt Harrison; Derek Holland
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, United States of America-After deciding they wanted to be good for a few years, the Angels suddenly started acting like the old California Angels. Seriously, why did they trade for Vernon Wells? I'm not going to say Vladimir Guerrero shifted the balance of power in the AL West, but everything changed for the Angels when he signed with Texas as a free agent before last season. Suddenly they no longer had the most intimidating lineup in this division. In fact, now it's not even close. Kendry Morales can mash and Torii Hunter is actually still good, but Bobby Abreu has turned into a singles hitter and Vernon Wells will make the Blue Jays more grateful by the day that they were actually able to somehow unload his contract. And am I the only one who thinks it's weird that they plan on having THREE Opening Day center fielders? I don't even know who this Peter Bourjos guy is. The pitching staff anchored by Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana is still above average. I like Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro is a very underrated fourth starter, but Scott Kazmir really needs to pull it together. Remember when he was the ace of Tampa Bay's staff during the Rays' World Series year? I think he's still capable of being that pitcher. Fernando Rodney's the new closer, and he's better than Brian Fuentes, the guy he's replacing.
Projected Lineup: Maicer Izturis-3B; Bobby Abreu-DH; Torii Hunter-RF; Kendry Morales-1B; Vernon Wells-LF; Howie Kendrick-2B; Jeff Mathis-C; Peter Bourjos-CF; Erick Aybar-SS
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver; Ervin Santana; Dan Haren; Joel Pineiro; Scott Kazmir
Projected Record: 83-79
4. Seattle Mariners-Let's start with the obvious positives for the Mariners. They have two great players. But Ichiro and Felix Hernandez do not a team make, and the rest of the team isn't that good. Although, it's not going to be hard for the Mariners to be better than last year's trainwreck. With Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro, Seattle has two of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and Jack Cust gives them an actual power bat to go along with Milton Bradley when he's not acting crazy (which, granted, isn't all that often). And a full year as a full-time starter should be enough to help Justin Smoak reach his potential. I saw this guy play in college, and he's ridiculous! But this is the year that Chone Figgins needs to get his head screwed on straight in order to aviod being put in that Carl Pavano to the Yankees free agent bust category. However, Felix Hernandez can still only pitch once every five days, so it looks like baseball fans are in for another long season in the Pacific Northwest. You know my feelings on Hernandez and last year's Cy Young, but it doesn't change the fact that the Mariners (like all bad teams) don't have any other starting pitchers. Their lineup isn't good enough to win games 10-8 and Brandon League is the closer, which says all you need to know about the Seattle bullpen. Still, the 2011 Mariners should be slightly better than the 2010 edition that had such high expectations before falling flat.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki-RF; Chone Figgins-3B; Jack Cust-DH; Milton Bradley-LF; Justin Smoak-1B; Franklin Gutierrez-CF; Brendan Ryan-SS; Miguel Olivo-C; Jack Wilson-2B
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez; Erik Bedard; Jason Vargas; Doug Fister; Michael Pineda
Projected Record: 66-96
1. Oakland Athletics-After making the playoffs seemingly every year during the Moneyball era, the A's dropped off the scene for a little while as the Angels decided to remember that they play in the L.A. market and Oakland's best players were either traded away or left as free agents. But the A's are back with a vengance, and they might be the best team in this division. The reason why? Pitching. What else? Trevor Cahill headlines a very talented unheralded rotation that also includes this guy named Dallas Braden. Yes, he's the "other" guy (the one not named Halladay) who threw a perfect game last year. Plus, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez are very talented. The only knock on this rotation is that three of the four (all but Cahill) are left-handed. Closer Andrew Bailey's been an all-star in both of his major league seasons, and Oakland added Brian Fuentes (who I think is very overrated, but still) as a set-up guy. The pitching staff is going to need to carry the A's, though, because the lineup doesn't exactly scare you. They certainly don't have McGwire-Canseco lineup of the late 80s or even the Giambi-Tejada lineup of the early 2000s. In fact, their best power guy these days might be Kevin Kouzmanoff, who hit a whopping 16 home runs last season. But the Oakland Coliseum is a national park, so their lack of power is probably a good thing. With Coco Crisp in the leadoff spot and good contact guys like Mark Ellis and Josh Willingham behind him, the RBI guys (Hideki Matsui and David DeJesus) will have plenty of opportunities. Even still, the A's are going to win a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games.
Projected Lineup: Coco Crisp-CF; Mark Ellis-2B; David DeJesus-RF; Hideki Matsui-DH; Kevin Kouzmanoff-3B; Josh Willingham-LF; Kurt Suzuki-C; Daric Barton-1B; Cliff Pennington-SS
Projected Rotation: Trevor Cahill; Dallas Braden; Brett Anderson; Gio Gonzalez; Brandon McCarthy
Projected Record: 90-72
2. Texas Rangers-On paper, the Rangers are the best team in this division. Obviously. They won the pennant last year and return essentially their entire lineup, including the reigning MVP (Josh Hamilton). But the Rangers lost one key guy--Cliff Lee, which is why I give Oakland a slight edge in the AL West. There are other reasons, though. The first is Adrian Beltre. As I've said before, this signing makes absolutely no sense. He's not as good as Vladimir Guerrero, or Michael Young, and all you did by singing him was piss Young off. I'm not exactly sure where the "upgrade" is with Beltre. I'm also not sure about this proposed move of Hamilton to left with Julio Borbon taking over in center. That relegates David Murphy to pinch hitting duites, even though Borbon can't hit and Murphy can. They're also going to carry three catchers, which means they're going to look for at-bats for Mike Napoli pretty much anywhere. In other words, the Rangers went a little nuts on the spending and now have too many starting position players. This is similar to the situation Boston put itself in a few years ago when it added Casey Kotchman for no apparent reason at the trade deadline. But with all that being said, I think pitching will be the reason Oakland overtakes Texas in the AL West. The Rangers' pitching staff is good, but it's not the same without Cliff Lee. And who knows what kind of a toll all those innings in the playoffs last season will have? However, it was a wise decision to keep AL Rookie of the Year Pedro Feliz in the bullpen. Don't turn an all-star closer into a starter! Period.
Projected Lineup: Elvis Andrus-SS; Ian Kinsler-2B; Josh Hamilton-LF; Adrian Beltre-3B; Nelson Cruz-RF; Michael Young-DH; Yorvit Torrealba-C; Mitch Moreland-1B; Julio Borbon-CF
Projected Rotation: C.J. Wilson; Colby Lewis; Tommy Hunter; Matt Harrison; Derek Holland
Projected Record: 88-74
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County, California, United States of America-After deciding they wanted to be good for a few years, the Angels suddenly started acting like the old California Angels. Seriously, why did they trade for Vernon Wells? I'm not going to say Vladimir Guerrero shifted the balance of power in the AL West, but everything changed for the Angels when he signed with Texas as a free agent before last season. Suddenly they no longer had the most intimidating lineup in this division. In fact, now it's not even close. Kendry Morales can mash and Torii Hunter is actually still good, but Bobby Abreu has turned into a singles hitter and Vernon Wells will make the Blue Jays more grateful by the day that they were actually able to somehow unload his contract. And am I the only one who thinks it's weird that they plan on having THREE Opening Day center fielders? I don't even know who this Peter Bourjos guy is. The pitching staff anchored by Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana is still above average. I like Dan Haren and Joel Pineiro is a very underrated fourth starter, but Scott Kazmir really needs to pull it together. Remember when he was the ace of Tampa Bay's staff during the Rays' World Series year? I think he's still capable of being that pitcher. Fernando Rodney's the new closer, and he's better than Brian Fuentes, the guy he's replacing.
Projected Lineup: Maicer Izturis-3B; Bobby Abreu-DH; Torii Hunter-RF; Kendry Morales-1B; Vernon Wells-LF; Howie Kendrick-2B; Jeff Mathis-C; Peter Bourjos-CF; Erick Aybar-SS
Projected Rotation: Jered Weaver; Ervin Santana; Dan Haren; Joel Pineiro; Scott Kazmir
Projected Record: 83-79
4. Seattle Mariners-Let's start with the obvious positives for the Mariners. They have two great players. But Ichiro and Felix Hernandez do not a team make, and the rest of the team isn't that good. Although, it's not going to be hard for the Mariners to be better than last year's trainwreck. With Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro, Seattle has two of the best defensive outfielders in the game, and Jack Cust gives them an actual power bat to go along with Milton Bradley when he's not acting crazy (which, granted, isn't all that often). And a full year as a full-time starter should be enough to help Justin Smoak reach his potential. I saw this guy play in college, and he's ridiculous! But this is the year that Chone Figgins needs to get his head screwed on straight in order to aviod being put in that Carl Pavano to the Yankees free agent bust category. However, Felix Hernandez can still only pitch once every five days, so it looks like baseball fans are in for another long season in the Pacific Northwest. You know my feelings on Hernandez and last year's Cy Young, but it doesn't change the fact that the Mariners (like all bad teams) don't have any other starting pitchers. Their lineup isn't good enough to win games 10-8 and Brandon League is the closer, which says all you need to know about the Seattle bullpen. Still, the 2011 Mariners should be slightly better than the 2010 edition that had such high expectations before falling flat.
Projected Lineup: Ichiro Suzuki-RF; Chone Figgins-3B; Jack Cust-DH; Milton Bradley-LF; Justin Smoak-1B; Franklin Gutierrez-CF; Brendan Ryan-SS; Miguel Olivo-C; Jack Wilson-2B
Projected Rotation: Felix Hernandez; Erik Bedard; Jason Vargas; Doug Fister; Michael Pineda
Projected Record: 66-96
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Baseball Preview: AL Central
Today in Part II of the 2011 baseball preview, we'll take a look at the AL Central. Like the AL East, this division is a race between three really good teams, with two not-so-good teams bringing up the rear. And I think that three-team race between the Tigers, White Sox and Twins will last all season.
1. Detroit Tigers-I'm not sure how the Tigers haven't won this division yet. Based on talent, they're the best team in the AL Central. And the addition of Victor Martinez is what gives Detroit the narrow edge over Minnesota and the White Sox in this division. This team had Johnny Damon last year, but the emergence of Brennan Boesch made him expendable. They also have Carlos Guillen, Mr. Super-Utility himself (the guy who founded the position before it was forced upon Michael Young). Guillen can DH (which I think he'll do on Opening Day) or play any infield position. That's good, considering they've got rookie Will Rhymes penciled in at second and who knows what's going on with Miguel Cabrera? But with Martinez, a not crazy Cabrera and a healthy Magglio Ordonez, Detroit's lineup is dangerous. And leadoff hitter Austin Jackson should be a lot better this year than he was last season, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. They don't have a fifth starter, but few teams do. And the front of Detroit's rotation--Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny--is as good as any in the American League. Plus, closer Jose Valverde was an all-star last season. Of course, they've become notorious for falling apart down the stretch, which can't happen in this division. But with their talent and Jim Leyland calling the shots, I think the Tigers are the team to beat in the AL Central.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF; Carlos Guillen-DH; Victor Martinez-C; Miguel Cabrera-1B; Magglio Ordonez-RF; Jhonny Peralta-SS; Brennan Boesch-LF; Brandon Inge-3B; Will Rhymes-2B
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander; Rick Porcello; Brad Penny; Max Scherzer; Phil Coke
Projected Record: 91-71
2. Minnesota Twins-On paper, there's not much separating the Tigers and the Twins. The Twins have won this division in each of the last two years, and they have the best all-around player in the American League in Joe Mauer. Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau are one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball, but how healthy is Morneau after missing the second half of last season with a concussion? But keep in mind, Minnesota went on that incredible second half tear without him last year. A healthy Morneau and another moster year from future Hall of Fame DH Jim Thome could bring more playoff losses to the Yankees to Target Field. But it could also mean too much of a good thing, since Morneau and Thome both being in the lineup means either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel has to sit. Although, playing Cuddyer at third is potentially a way around that. The Twins' rotation isn't great, but it's good enough. But they have to be weary of Francisco Liriano's vulnerability to injury and can't expect the same numbers out of Carl Pavano that they got in 2010. The bullpen gets back closer Joe Nathan, who they amazingly didn't really miss that much. Like I said, Detroit and Minnesota are incredibly even. But the Tigers get the slight edge because their rotation is slightly better.
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF; Tsuyoshi Nishioka-2B; Joe Mauer-C; Justin Morneau-1B; Jim Thome-DH; Michael Cuddyer-RF; Delmon Young-LF; Danny Valencia-3B; Alexi Casilla-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano; Carl Pavano; Nick Blackburn; Brian Duensing; Scott Baker
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Chicago White Sox-The White Sox are slightly less good than the Tigers and Twins, which makes them the third best team in this division. Their big offseason is Adam Dunn, who was a DH stuck in the National League for a long time. Now that he's in the AL like he should be, Dunn could have an even more ridiculous year than he'd been having when nobody noticed in Washington. Plus, he can share first base duties with Paul Konerko, which could definitely help Konerko's production. But the White Sox' big problem is that they're old. Juan Pierre is their leadoff hitter and A.J. Pierzynski is their starting catcher. For the White Sox to contend, one of the two has to have a big year. Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez have potential, but Alex Rios is probably the only poistion player in this lineup other than Dunn who's actually in his prime. But the White Sox will be about pitching as long as they have Mark Buehrle (which might only be until July). Buehrle's a stud and a workhorse. When your best player is a starting pitcher, that's both a good thing and a bad thing. A healthy Jake Peavy gives the White Sox a nice 1-2 punch, but Peavy got hurt again the other day and, sadly, might never again be the same pitcher who was the ace of the Padres' staff. Losing Bobby Jenks hurts. Matt Thornton was an all-star set up guy last season, but won't be an all-star closer.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF; Gordon Beckham-2B; Paul Konerko-1B; Adam Dunn-DH; Carlos Quentin-RF; Alex Rios-CF; A.J. Pierzynski-C; Mark Teahen-3B; Alexei Ramirez-3B
Projected Rotation: Mark Buehrle; Jake Peavy; Edwin Jackson; Gavin Floyd; John Danks
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Kansas City Royals-In the battle for last place in the AL Central, the Royals are slightly less bad than the Indians. Based on the talent they have in the minor leagues, Kansas City looks to be maybe three years away from being the 2008 Rays. But let's keep things real. Most of the major league talent consists of players that other teams decided weren't good enough. All of the castaways on this Island of Misfit Toys are established major leaguers, but it's not like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are headed to Cooperstown. Still, Kansas City is talented enough to annoy the good teams. Yes Jason Kendall is 62 years old, but Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are very good and would be much more appreciated if they played somewhere else. The lineup's not really the problem, though. Like all teams that aren't quite at the top level, they don't have the pitching. Zack Greinke left for the Brewers as a free agent, and Gil Meche isn't a Royal anymore either, which means Luke Hochevar will be the Opening Day starter. Joakim Soria is a very good closer, but the value of a good closer is lost when he only gets the opportunity to save two games a week.
Projected Lineup: Melky Cabrera-CF; Alcides Escobar-SS; Billy Butler-DH; Alex Gordon-LF; Kila Ka'aihue-1B; Jeff Francoeur-RF; Wilson Betemit-3B; Jason Kendall-C; Mike Aviles-2B
Projected Rotation: Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies; Bruce Chen; Vin Mazzaro
Projected Record: 68-94
5. Cleveland Indians-They're talking about making another Major League, which the Indians would probably embrace, since the first time that movie came out, Cleveland became good. This is a far cry from the team that was in the playoffs every year in the late '90s and, as recently as 2007, was in Game 7 of the ALCS. Like all teams, there are some good players in Cleveland, but this isn't the 1995 World Series team that had Manny Ramirez batting seventh. Grady Sizemore is working his way back, and his health is a key. So is Shin-Soo Choo's. Choo would've been the Indians' all-star last year until he got hurt just before the all-star break. They still have Travis Hafner, who either hits the ball 400 feet or strikes out every time he comes up, and I really like the young talent (Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana), but let's call a spade a spade. The Indians aren't very good. Plus, they evidently had a space on the DL that they needed to fill, so they signed Nick Johnson. Other than Fausto Carmona, the Indians pitching staff consists of a bunch of guys you've never heard of.
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF; Orlando Cabrera-2B; Travis Hafner-DH; Shin-Soo Choo-LF; Matt LaPorta-1B; Asdrubal Cabrera-SS; Austin Kearns-LF; Carlos Santana-C; Jason Donald-3B
Projected Rotation: Fausto Carmona; Justin Masterson; Mitch Talbot; Carlos Carrasco; Josh Tomlin
Projected Record: 61-101
1. Detroit Tigers-I'm not sure how the Tigers haven't won this division yet. Based on talent, they're the best team in the AL Central. And the addition of Victor Martinez is what gives Detroit the narrow edge over Minnesota and the White Sox in this division. This team had Johnny Damon last year, but the emergence of Brennan Boesch made him expendable. They also have Carlos Guillen, Mr. Super-Utility himself (the guy who founded the position before it was forced upon Michael Young). Guillen can DH (which I think he'll do on Opening Day) or play any infield position. That's good, considering they've got rookie Will Rhymes penciled in at second and who knows what's going on with Miguel Cabrera? But with Martinez, a not crazy Cabrera and a healthy Magglio Ordonez, Detroit's lineup is dangerous. And leadoff hitter Austin Jackson should be a lot better this year than he was last season, when he finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. They don't have a fifth starter, but few teams do. And the front of Detroit's rotation--Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Brad Penny--is as good as any in the American League. Plus, closer Jose Valverde was an all-star last season. Of course, they've become notorious for falling apart down the stretch, which can't happen in this division. But with their talent and Jim Leyland calling the shots, I think the Tigers are the team to beat in the AL Central.
Projected Lineup: Austin Jackson-CF; Carlos Guillen-DH; Victor Martinez-C; Miguel Cabrera-1B; Magglio Ordonez-RF; Jhonny Peralta-SS; Brennan Boesch-LF; Brandon Inge-3B; Will Rhymes-2B
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander; Rick Porcello; Brad Penny; Max Scherzer; Phil Coke
Projected Record: 91-71
2. Minnesota Twins-On paper, there's not much separating the Tigers and the Twins. The Twins have won this division in each of the last two years, and they have the best all-around player in the American League in Joe Mauer. Mauer and a healthy Justin Morneau are one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball, but how healthy is Morneau after missing the second half of last season with a concussion? But keep in mind, Minnesota went on that incredible second half tear without him last year. A healthy Morneau and another moster year from future Hall of Fame DH Jim Thome could bring more playoff losses to the Yankees to Target Field. But it could also mean too much of a good thing, since Morneau and Thome both being in the lineup means either Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel has to sit. Although, playing Cuddyer at third is potentially a way around that. The Twins' rotation isn't great, but it's good enough. But they have to be weary of Francisco Liriano's vulnerability to injury and can't expect the same numbers out of Carl Pavano that they got in 2010. The bullpen gets back closer Joe Nathan, who they amazingly didn't really miss that much. Like I said, Detroit and Minnesota are incredibly even. But the Tigers get the slight edge because their rotation is slightly better.
Projected Lineup: Denard Span-CF; Tsuyoshi Nishioka-2B; Joe Mauer-C; Justin Morneau-1B; Jim Thome-DH; Michael Cuddyer-RF; Delmon Young-LF; Danny Valencia-3B; Alexi Casilla-SS
Projected Rotation: Francisco Liriano; Carl Pavano; Nick Blackburn; Brian Duensing; Scott Baker
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Chicago White Sox-The White Sox are slightly less good than the Tigers and Twins, which makes them the third best team in this division. Their big offseason is Adam Dunn, who was a DH stuck in the National League for a long time. Now that he's in the AL like he should be, Dunn could have an even more ridiculous year than he'd been having when nobody noticed in Washington. Plus, he can share first base duties with Paul Konerko, which could definitely help Konerko's production. But the White Sox' big problem is that they're old. Juan Pierre is their leadoff hitter and A.J. Pierzynski is their starting catcher. For the White Sox to contend, one of the two has to have a big year. Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez have potential, but Alex Rios is probably the only poistion player in this lineup other than Dunn who's actually in his prime. But the White Sox will be about pitching as long as they have Mark Buehrle (which might only be until July). Buehrle's a stud and a workhorse. When your best player is a starting pitcher, that's both a good thing and a bad thing. A healthy Jake Peavy gives the White Sox a nice 1-2 punch, but Peavy got hurt again the other day and, sadly, might never again be the same pitcher who was the ace of the Padres' staff. Losing Bobby Jenks hurts. Matt Thornton was an all-star set up guy last season, but won't be an all-star closer.
Projected Lineup: Juan Pierre-LF; Gordon Beckham-2B; Paul Konerko-1B; Adam Dunn-DH; Carlos Quentin-RF; Alex Rios-CF; A.J. Pierzynski-C; Mark Teahen-3B; Alexei Ramirez-3B
Projected Rotation: Mark Buehrle; Jake Peavy; Edwin Jackson; Gavin Floyd; John Danks
Projected Record: 88-74
4. Kansas City Royals-In the battle for last place in the AL Central, the Royals are slightly less bad than the Indians. Based on the talent they have in the minor leagues, Kansas City looks to be maybe three years away from being the 2008 Rays. But let's keep things real. Most of the major league talent consists of players that other teams decided weren't good enough. All of the castaways on this Island of Misfit Toys are established major leaguers, but it's not like Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are headed to Cooperstown. Still, Kansas City is talented enough to annoy the good teams. Yes Jason Kendall is 62 years old, but Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are very good and would be much more appreciated if they played somewhere else. The lineup's not really the problem, though. Like all teams that aren't quite at the top level, they don't have the pitching. Zack Greinke left for the Brewers as a free agent, and Gil Meche isn't a Royal anymore either, which means Luke Hochevar will be the Opening Day starter. Joakim Soria is a very good closer, but the value of a good closer is lost when he only gets the opportunity to save two games a week.
Projected Lineup: Melky Cabrera-CF; Alcides Escobar-SS; Billy Butler-DH; Alex Gordon-LF; Kila Ka'aihue-1B; Jeff Francoeur-RF; Wilson Betemit-3B; Jason Kendall-C; Mike Aviles-2B
Projected Rotation: Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies; Bruce Chen; Vin Mazzaro
Projected Record: 68-94
5. Cleveland Indians-They're talking about making another Major League, which the Indians would probably embrace, since the first time that movie came out, Cleveland became good. This is a far cry from the team that was in the playoffs every year in the late '90s and, as recently as 2007, was in Game 7 of the ALCS. Like all teams, there are some good players in Cleveland, but this isn't the 1995 World Series team that had Manny Ramirez batting seventh. Grady Sizemore is working his way back, and his health is a key. So is Shin-Soo Choo's. Choo would've been the Indians' all-star last year until he got hurt just before the all-star break. They still have Travis Hafner, who either hits the ball 400 feet or strikes out every time he comes up, and I really like the young talent (Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana), but let's call a spade a spade. The Indians aren't very good. Plus, they evidently had a space on the DL that they needed to fill, so they signed Nick Johnson. Other than Fausto Carmona, the Indians pitching staff consists of a bunch of guys you've never heard of.
Projected Lineup: Grady Sizemore-CF; Orlando Cabrera-2B; Travis Hafner-DH; Shin-Soo Choo-LF; Matt LaPorta-1B; Asdrubal Cabrera-SS; Austin Kearns-LF; Carlos Santana-C; Jason Donald-3B
Projected Rotation: Fausto Carmona; Justin Masterson; Mitch Talbot; Carlos Carrasco; Josh Tomlin
Projected Record: 61-101
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Baseball Preview: AL East
Since I like baseball so much, I was having trouble trying to figure out how to cram a baseball preview into one blog post. Then I decided that would be an impossible task, so I looked for an alternate plan. What did I come up with? A six-part division-by-division look at the upcoming 2011 season. My next six posts (starting with this one) leading up to Opening Day on March 31 will break down a different division. As a Yankees fan, I obviously know the AL East the best. With that in mind, we're going to go in the same order as any newspaper or any website (East, Central, West--American, National). An additional note before we get started, I'm going to do the teams according to my predicted order of finish.
1. Boston Red Sox-As sad as it is to admit, the Boston Red Sox are probably the best team in the American League, at least on paper. I still hate them with a passion, but I can't in good faith say that the Red Sox aren't the favorites to win this division. Theo Epstein is still obsessed with first basemen and starting pitchers, but, as the Yankees are finding out, too many starting pitchers is better than not enough. Their two big offseason additions were Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Crawford is an amazing fit for left field in Fenway Park, and pretty much everyone saw that one coming. I don't quite understand getting Gonzalez and moving Youkilis to third, though. They also don't have any infield backups other than Jed Lowrie, which could be problematic if somebody gets hurt. Another Achilles heel could be behind the plate, where Jarrod Saltalamacchia is no Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek is 86 years old. I'm actually not really sure why Varitek is still on the team. But their pitching is ridiculous, which is why they're the division favorites. The front of the Boston rotation is better than any team in baseball other than the Phillies, and, just in case one closer wasn't enough, they added Bobby Jenks to an already stacked bullpen. Injuries kept the Red Sux out of the playoffs last season, but they might be good enough this year to make it even if a couple guys are out for an extended period.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Carl Crawford-LF, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, J.D. Drew-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Marco Scutaro-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Projected Record: 98-64
2. New York Yankees-My hope of all hopes for the Yankees is that they tread water long enough with three starters to still be in contention when they get a stud (Mark Buehrle?) at the trade deadline. The good thing is the offense is good enough to win a bunch of 10-8 games. The big news during the offseason was mostly bad (Andy Pettitte retired, Cliff Lee didn't come to replace him), but the pieces that were added do fit nicely. Russell Martin still has some tread in the tires and, even though he's old, Andruw Jones only needs to be the new Marcus Thames, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only potential problems I see with this new lineup are the lack of quality bats off the bench (none) and the questions about Jorge Posada DHing. If he embraces the role and stays healthy, he could have a big year. The back end of the rotation problems might not be that bad with the ridiculous bullpen that the Yankees have. Jose Feliciano left the Mets as a free agent, so he moved across town to actually give the Yankees a second lefty other than Boone Logan. I don't know if David Robertson can repeat last year's success, and who knows what's going on with Joba, but Rafael Soriano is this year's eighth inning guy and he's better than both of them. And they still have Mariano.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Nick Swisher-RF (won't hit if he doesn't bat second, so leave him there please), Mark Teixeira-1B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Robinson Cano-2B, Jorge Posada-DH, Curtis Granderson-CF, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova
Projected Record: 95-67 (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays-At the end of last season, it seemed like there would be no way the Rays would be in the conversation to win the AL East again in 2011. They're not the favorite, but they won't suddely revert back to being the Devil Rays. I'm not sure Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can replace the production of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, but they're proven veterans who can provide necessary leadership (well, at least Damon can on that last part). And evidently the Rays think that's enough to have Desmond Jennings start the season playing alongside Crash Davis and Nuke LaLoosh. I'm not really sure they can replace Jason Bartlett at shortstop, and the loss of Matt Garza is also big. Fortunately, the Rays have one of the best pitchers in the American League (David Price) and a Rookie of the Year candidate (Jeremy Hellickson) in that rotation. The bullpen has been one of this team's strengths since it got good three years ago, but with Rafael Soriano gone, it could be a weakness. I think J.P. Howell is penciled in as the closer, and they added Kyle Farnsworth as a set-up guy. You all know my feelings about Kyle Farnsworth. At least when he throws fastballs down the middle this season, the Yankees will be the team hitting when he's on the mound.
Projected Lineup: John Jaso-C (catchers shouldn't lead off, but it worked last year), B.J. Upton-CF, Johnny Damon-LF, Evan Longoria-3B, Manny Ramirez-DH, Ben Zobrist-RF, Dan Johnson-1B, Reid Brignac-SS, Sean Rodriguez-2B
Projected Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeff Neimann, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson
Projected Record: 89-73
4. Baltimore Orioles-The Orioles will be a lot better this season. They're going to hit, and they're going to give the big three fits. But this is the AL East and Baltimore still doesn't have any pitching. I think a .500 record is a very respectable and realistic goal, though. The Orioles added Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and his strikeouts. Plus, they get back a healthy Brian Roberts. That's the good news. The bad news (other than the division that they play in) is that the rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz (who has a lot of upside). But Buck Showalter knows what he's doing, as evidence by the fact that they won more games in two months with him last season than the previous four without him, despite having pretty much the exact same team. The Orioles won't win the division, but they might play a role in who does. They play 54 games against the Red Sux, Yankees and Rays, and whichever one they beat the most might be the one that misses the playoffs. There's reason to be hopeful in Baltimore. The Orioles will be good again soon, and this year could be the start of something. Remember, the Yankees (1996) and Diamondbacks (2001) both won the World Series the year after firing Buck. (I hope I did the O's preview justice, Mr. Jim.)
Projected Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Derrek Lee-1B, Vladimir Guerrero-DH, Mark Reynolds-3B, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Luke Scott-LF, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Justin Duchscherer, Brad Bergesen
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Toronto Blue Jays-Finally, there's the most annoying team in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays. I seriously don't know how this team gives good teams so many problems. They're a bunch of fastball hitters! Don't throw them fastballs! Anyway, now that I've gotten that off my chest, I don't see that happening again. Jose Bautista was a one-year wonder. I give them credit for finding a team stupid enough to take Vernon Wells and his contract, but replacing him with Juan Rivera isn't really an upgrade. And I'm not really sure about these planned moves of Bautista (an outfielder) to third base and Adam Lind (a DH) to first. Trading for Frank Francisco to be the closer was a smart move, but the rest of the bullpen is so shaky, I'm not sure how many games there will be for him to close. And they traded away their best starter, Shaun Marcum. (Side note about the starters, Kyle Drabek shouldn't be allowed to wear No. 4. They really need to make some sort of rule prohibiting pitchers from wearing single-digit numbers.) Ricky Romero's good, but there's not much behind him. In the AL East, that's a problem. I think Toronto regressed and Baltimore improved enough to drop the Blue Jays into the cellar.
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis-CF, Aaron Hill-2B, Jose Bautista-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Juan Rivera-LF, Travis Snider-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, J.P. Arencibia-C, Yunel Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch
Projected Record: 74-88
Up next, the AL Central.
1. Boston Red Sox-As sad as it is to admit, the Boston Red Sox are probably the best team in the American League, at least on paper. I still hate them with a passion, but I can't in good faith say that the Red Sox aren't the favorites to win this division. Theo Epstein is still obsessed with first basemen and starting pitchers, but, as the Yankees are finding out, too many starting pitchers is better than not enough. Their two big offseason additions were Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Crawford is an amazing fit for left field in Fenway Park, and pretty much everyone saw that one coming. I don't quite understand getting Gonzalez and moving Youkilis to third, though. They also don't have any infield backups other than Jed Lowrie, which could be problematic if somebody gets hurt. Another Achilles heel could be behind the plate, where Jarrod Saltalamacchia is no Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek is 86 years old. I'm actually not really sure why Varitek is still on the team. But their pitching is ridiculous, which is why they're the division favorites. The front of the Boston rotation is better than any team in baseball other than the Phillies, and, just in case one closer wasn't enough, they added Bobby Jenks to an already stacked bullpen. Injuries kept the Red Sux out of the playoffs last season, but they might be good enough this year to make it even if a couple guys are out for an extended period.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Ellsbury-CF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, Carl Crawford-LF, Adrian Gonzalez-1B, Kevin Youkilis-3B, David Ortiz-DH, J.D. Drew-RF, Jarrod Saltalamacchia-C, Marco Scutaro-SS
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka
Projected Record: 98-64
2. New York Yankees-My hope of all hopes for the Yankees is that they tread water long enough with three starters to still be in contention when they get a stud (Mark Buehrle?) at the trade deadline. The good thing is the offense is good enough to win a bunch of 10-8 games. The big news during the offseason was mostly bad (Andy Pettitte retired, Cliff Lee didn't come to replace him), but the pieces that were added do fit nicely. Russell Martin still has some tread in the tires and, even though he's old, Andruw Jones only needs to be the new Marcus Thames, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only potential problems I see with this new lineup are the lack of quality bats off the bench (none) and the questions about Jorge Posada DHing. If he embraces the role and stays healthy, he could have a big year. The back end of the rotation problems might not be that bad with the ridiculous bullpen that the Yankees have. Jose Feliciano left the Mets as a free agent, so he moved across town to actually give the Yankees a second lefty other than Boone Logan. I don't know if David Robertson can repeat last year's success, and who knows what's going on with Joba, but Rafael Soriano is this year's eighth inning guy and he's better than both of them. And they still have Mariano.
Projected Lineup: Derek Jeter-SS, Nick Swisher-RF (won't hit if he doesn't bat second, so leave him there please), Mark Teixeira-1B, Alex Rodriguez-3B, Robinson Cano-2B, Jorge Posada-DH, Curtis Granderson-CF, Russell Martin-C, Brett Gardner-LF
Projected Rotation: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia, Ivan Nova
Projected Record: 95-67 (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays-At the end of last season, it seemed like there would be no way the Rays would be in the conversation to win the AL East again in 2011. They're not the favorite, but they won't suddely revert back to being the Devil Rays. I'm not sure Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can replace the production of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, but they're proven veterans who can provide necessary leadership (well, at least Damon can on that last part). And evidently the Rays think that's enough to have Desmond Jennings start the season playing alongside Crash Davis and Nuke LaLoosh. I'm not really sure they can replace Jason Bartlett at shortstop, and the loss of Matt Garza is also big. Fortunately, the Rays have one of the best pitchers in the American League (David Price) and a Rookie of the Year candidate (Jeremy Hellickson) in that rotation. The bullpen has been one of this team's strengths since it got good three years ago, but with Rafael Soriano gone, it could be a weakness. I think J.P. Howell is penciled in as the closer, and they added Kyle Farnsworth as a set-up guy. You all know my feelings about Kyle Farnsworth. At least when he throws fastballs down the middle this season, the Yankees will be the team hitting when he's on the mound.
Projected Lineup: John Jaso-C (catchers shouldn't lead off, but it worked last year), B.J. Upton-CF, Johnny Damon-LF, Evan Longoria-3B, Manny Ramirez-DH, Ben Zobrist-RF, Dan Johnson-1B, Reid Brignac-SS, Sean Rodriguez-2B
Projected Rotation: David Price, James Shields, Jeff Neimann, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson
Projected Record: 89-73
4. Baltimore Orioles-The Orioles will be a lot better this season. They're going to hit, and they're going to give the big three fits. But this is the AL East and Baltimore still doesn't have any pitching. I think a .500 record is a very respectable and realistic goal, though. The Orioles added Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and his strikeouts. Plus, they get back a healthy Brian Roberts. That's the good news. The bad news (other than the division that they play in) is that the rotation is anchored by Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz (who has a lot of upside). But Buck Showalter knows what he's doing, as evidence by the fact that they won more games in two months with him last season than the previous four without him, despite having pretty much the exact same team. The Orioles won't win the division, but they might play a role in who does. They play 54 games against the Red Sux, Yankees and Rays, and whichever one they beat the most might be the one that misses the playoffs. There's reason to be hopeful in Baltimore. The Orioles will be good again soon, and this year could be the start of something. Remember, the Yankees (1996) and Diamondbacks (2001) both won the World Series the year after firing Buck. (I hope I did the O's preview justice, Mr. Jim.)
Projected Lineup: Brian Roberts-2B, Nick Markakis-RF, Derrek Lee-1B, Vladimir Guerrero-DH, Mark Reynolds-3B, Adam Jones-CF, Matt Wieters-C, Luke Scott-LF, J.J. Hardy-SS
Projected Rotation: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Justin Duchscherer, Brad Bergesen
Projected Record: 77-85
5. Toronto Blue Jays-Finally, there's the most annoying team in the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays. I seriously don't know how this team gives good teams so many problems. They're a bunch of fastball hitters! Don't throw them fastballs! Anyway, now that I've gotten that off my chest, I don't see that happening again. Jose Bautista was a one-year wonder. I give them credit for finding a team stupid enough to take Vernon Wells and his contract, but replacing him with Juan Rivera isn't really an upgrade. And I'm not really sure about these planned moves of Bautista (an outfielder) to third base and Adam Lind (a DH) to first. Trading for Frank Francisco to be the closer was a smart move, but the rest of the bullpen is so shaky, I'm not sure how many games there will be for him to close. And they traded away their best starter, Shaun Marcum. (Side note about the starters, Kyle Drabek shouldn't be allowed to wear No. 4. They really need to make some sort of rule prohibiting pitchers from wearing single-digit numbers.) Ricky Romero's good, but there's not much behind him. In the AL East, that's a problem. I think Toronto regressed and Baltimore improved enough to drop the Blue Jays into the cellar.
Projected Lineup: Rajai Davis-CF, Aaron Hill-2B, Jose Bautista-3B, Adam Lind-1B, Juan Rivera-LF, Travis Snider-RF, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, J.P. Arencibia-C, Yunel Escobar-SS
Projected Rotation: Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch
Projected Record: 74-88
Up next, the AL Central.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Women's Final Four Picks
Before we get into our breakdown of the Women's NCAA Tournament, say hello to Kellen Matthew White:
Now we move on to the NCAA Women's Tournament, which, like most years, will be much less suspenseful than the men's tournament. UConn is obviously the prohibitive favorite, but Stanford and Baylor are both capable of knocking off the Huskies in Indianapolis, if they manage to get there. The two best No. 2 seeds are Xavier and Texas A&M, which are in the same regions as Stanford and Baylor (more on that as we break the regions down).
Philadelphia-The Philadelphia (aka "East") Region is where the best team in the country resides. UConn is playing at home in the first two rounds. It's not really like that makes a difference, but any potential "Will the games be close?" suspense is gone. It's not even worth picking an upset special or saying who else has a chance at reaching the Final Four in this region, because getting stuck in the same region as UConn in the women's tournament is like getting stuck in Rafael Nadal's half of the draw in the French Open. Purdue-Kansas State and Iowa State-Marist are dynamite first-round matchups, but the winners of those games run into UConn and Duke teams that will be playing home games in the second round. Four teams are playing at home in this region, so I'm not really going out on a limb to say UConn, Maryland, Penn State and Duke will reach the Sweet 16. Not everybody's sold on Duke, but I do think they'll make it to the regional final, where Maya Moore awaits. Yes, UConn wins the game.
Dayton (aka "Mideast")-This is Tennessee's region, where Notre Dame is a dangerous No. 2 seed. Miami was in the discussion for a No. 2 seed, but got the No. 3 it deserved. The No. 4 seed is Ohio State, which has played some phenomenal basketball over the last month of the season, capped by a Big Ten Tournament win, to move from a No. 6-7 seed to No. 4 in this region. Upset specials in this region are Bowling Green over Georgia Tech (5-12) and James Madison over Oklahoma (6-11). Texas also beats Marquette, but 8-9 games officially don't count. Notre Dame is playing at No. 15 seed Utah in the first round, but that shouldn't make a difference. Sweet 16 is Tennessee, Ohio State, my upset special James Madison, which beats Miami, and Notre Dame. That Notre Dame-Tennessee regional final is a dandy, and a dangerous matchup for the Lady Vols. In fact, I like Skylar Diggins and the Irish.
Spokane ("West")-Stanford is the second-best team in the country, and probably the only one that isn't afraid of UConn. The Cardinal beat the Huskies in the 2008 Final Four and lost to UConn in last year's National Championship Game. Then they snapped the 90-game winning streak in December. Stanford's ready to make a return run to the Final Four, which won't be easy. Despite being the No. 11 seed, Gonzaga's playing at home all the way through (Washington State's technically hosting the Regional, but it's being played in Spokane). I wouldn't count out Courtney Vandersloot. Xavier remembers coming so close against Stanford last year, and gets the chance to take on the Cardinal again with a better team this year. But that doesn't matter. Stanford's on a mission. Joining the Cardinal, Musketeers and Zags in the Sweet 16 will be North Carolina, which wins a great 4-5 game with Kentucky. But the Stanford-Xavier regional final isn't going to be as close as last year.
Dallas ("Midwest")-Why are Baylor and Texas A&M both in this region? They've already played three times this season. The committee uses a policy where the best No. 2 seed is given its preferred region, but this puts the two best teams in the Big 12 meeting in a regional final (this happened with UConn and Rutgers a couple of years ago, too). They need to make it like the men's tournament where the top two teams in one conference can't be placed in the same region. All of this is pointless, though, since Texas A&M is going to lose to a very good Florida State team in the Sweet 16. The best team in the country that nobody knows about is fifth-seeded Green Bay, which WILL advance to the Sweet 16. It ends there, though, and Brittany Griner and Co. then beat Florida State to get back to the Final Four.
Final Four-I know I didn't really go out on much of a limb with these picks, as I have UConn vs. Notre Dame and Stanford vs. Baylor in the Final Four. UConn-Notre Dame will be similar to the Big East final. Notre Dame will hang in there for a while, but UConn's athleticism will be too much. The Irish are good, but the Huskies are by far the superior team. Baylor-Stanford, however, has the makings of one of the best Final Four games in years. Brittany Griner will probably be the best player on the floor in the game, but Stanford doesn't need to shut her down to win. The Cardinal are much deeper and have so many options, Baylor won't be able to stop them all. Stanford wins, but it might go to overtime.
I'd like Stanford in the National Championship Game if they weren't playing UConn. This matchup would be ultra-intriguing for several reasons. Of course Stanford ended UConn's winning streak, but Stanford also beat UConn in the 2008 Final Four, and knows it should've last year. What kind of an effect will that have on both teams? Again, Stanford's probably the only team in the country that isn't afraid of UConn, but UConn could be in the rare position where it feels like it has something to prove. Plus, do you really think Maya Moore's not going to make it her mission to go out on top? Diana Taurasi was far and away the best player in the game. She ended her career with three straight National Championships, then passed the baton to Candace Parker. Parker and Tennessee won two in a row, and it could've been three if she'd come back for her fourth year of eligibility. The torch was then passed to Maya Moore. Get my drift? Stanford comes close again, but the best player in the game wills her team to another title in her final collegiate game.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Final Four Picks
All week people have been asking me who I think is going to be in the Final Four. I've been so busy I haven't really had time to fill out a bracket, but I do know that it's stupid to take the chalk. With that being said, here on Tournament Eve, now is the time to reveal my Final Four picks. Sorry, but I'm not picking all 67 games. You have to make that tough Duke-Hampton call all on your own. (Although I do like USC over VCU in tonight's NIT, I mean "First Four," game.)
This year's Tournament is so much more wide open than any in recent memory. We won't have a Butler getting all the way to the Championship Game this year, but there are about eight or nine teams that could easily win the title. As a result, handicapping this thing isn't even close to easy. Just know that President Obama's Final Four (the four No. 1 seeds) isn't going to happen. All four No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four only once. With all that being said, let's go.
Let's start in the East, where taking Ohio State is the easy call. But I'm not 100 percent sold on the Buckeyes. They've got Kansas last year written all over them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio State in Houston, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to George Mason either. My upset specials in this region are Clemson over West Virginia (there's your 5-12) and Marquette over Xavier. Even though this bracket's loaded, it would be a surprise not to see the top four seeds advance to Newark, where I think Kentucky knocks off Ohio State and North Carolina wins a great game against Syracuse. And moving on to the Final Four...the Tar Heels.
Duke and UConn have to be pissed about getting shipped out West, where San Diego State has such a huge advantage of playing in Tucson, then Anaheim. This one's interesting because Arizona could easily beat Duke. Or lose to Memphis. I think the Wildcats squeak by against Memphis, then beat Texas to move on and face Duke. UConn won't have to worry about the five games in five days against Bucknell, but Missouri could make the Huskies work with their style of play (yes, I'm taking Missouri over Cincinnati). I think UConn makes it to Anaheim, but that home court advantage for San Diego State is going to be too much to overcome. In the regional final, Duke, a better team than San Diego State, proves it in a hostile environment to set up a Final Four matchup with its archrival.
Kansas isn't the No. 1 overall seed this year, which is a good thing. But they have the best No. 2 seed (Notre Dame) in their region. I don't see many upsets in the Southwest (did anybody know that they changed the names of the regions?). Maybe Florida State over Texas A&M or Illinois over UNLV, but 8-9 games officially don't count as upsets. Again I think the four top seeds move through the first week, setting up Kansas-Louisville and Purdue-Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. Kansas will get by Louisville, but I wish Purdue and Notre Dame weren't in the same region. They're both good enough to get to the Final Four, but only one can. I think Notre Dame wins this one, then gets by Kansas in overtime to become the only Big East Final Four team.
The Southeast is the most confusing region. Seriously, why is Pitt a 1 seed and why is Florida a 2 seed? With that being said, I think this is our upset region. Pitt goes down to the Butler-Old Dominion winner in the second round (I don't care what the NCAA says, it's still the "second" round). I'll give you the 5-12 upset guarantee with Utah State over Kansas State, and Wisconsin will barely squeak by pesky Belmont. A Bruins win wouldn't completely shock me, though. And the magic runs out for St. John's, which drew a tough matchup with the Zags. Sweet 16 in this region? Butler, Wisconsin, Gonzaga (sorry Jimmer) and Michigan State. In the all-Big Ten regional final, I'm tempted to take Michigan State, seeing as they make the Final Four every year regardless of seed, but I'm going to take Wisconsin.
That gives us a Final Four of North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
Duke-North Carolina IV will resemble the first matchup (a 79-73 Duke win in Durham) more than the last two (a North Carolina blowout in Chapel Hill and a Duke blowout in the ACC final). But Duke is the defending National Champion, and having Kyrie Irving back is certainly going to help. Of course, with this rivalry, having the better team doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Duke has the better team. Especially with Kyrie Irving. If he's healthy enough to be able to make a difference, Duke wins. In the other game, Notre Dame will finally look like the team that should've won the Big East Tournament and been a No. 1 seed. Great job by Wisconsin to get to this point, but if Notre Dame plays the way it's capable of, the Irish play for the national title.
It'll be a bunch of smart guys (or at least schools that are hard for us normal people to get into) in the National Championship Game, as Duke takes on Notre Dame. It would be something if Notre Dame were to win a National Championship in basketball while its football team can barely figure out a way to schedule teams it can actually beat, but I don't see that happening. Duke's way too deep. Plus, I think they'll find a way to take both Hansbrough and Abromaitis out of the game. Combine that with the fact Notre Dame won't really have an answer for all the different looks Duke can throw out there, and I see a repeat National Championship. Duke was the preseason No. 1 for a reason. They'll end the season as No. 1 as well.
This year's Tournament is so much more wide open than any in recent memory. We won't have a Butler getting all the way to the Championship Game this year, but there are about eight or nine teams that could easily win the title. As a result, handicapping this thing isn't even close to easy. Just know that President Obama's Final Four (the four No. 1 seeds) isn't going to happen. All four No. 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four only once. With all that being said, let's go.
Let's start in the East, where taking Ohio State is the easy call. But I'm not 100 percent sold on the Buckeyes. They've got Kansas last year written all over them. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio State in Houston, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose to George Mason either. My upset specials in this region are Clemson over West Virginia (there's your 5-12) and Marquette over Xavier. Even though this bracket's loaded, it would be a surprise not to see the top four seeds advance to Newark, where I think Kentucky knocks off Ohio State and North Carolina wins a great game against Syracuse. And moving on to the Final Four...the Tar Heels.
Duke and UConn have to be pissed about getting shipped out West, where San Diego State has such a huge advantage of playing in Tucson, then Anaheim. This one's interesting because Arizona could easily beat Duke. Or lose to Memphis. I think the Wildcats squeak by against Memphis, then beat Texas to move on and face Duke. UConn won't have to worry about the five games in five days against Bucknell, but Missouri could make the Huskies work with their style of play (yes, I'm taking Missouri over Cincinnati). I think UConn makes it to Anaheim, but that home court advantage for San Diego State is going to be too much to overcome. In the regional final, Duke, a better team than San Diego State, proves it in a hostile environment to set up a Final Four matchup with its archrival.
Kansas isn't the No. 1 overall seed this year, which is a good thing. But they have the best No. 2 seed (Notre Dame) in their region. I don't see many upsets in the Southwest (did anybody know that they changed the names of the regions?). Maybe Florida State over Texas A&M or Illinois over UNLV, but 8-9 games officially don't count as upsets. Again I think the four top seeds move through the first week, setting up Kansas-Louisville and Purdue-Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. Kansas will get by Louisville, but I wish Purdue and Notre Dame weren't in the same region. They're both good enough to get to the Final Four, but only one can. I think Notre Dame wins this one, then gets by Kansas in overtime to become the only Big East Final Four team.
The Southeast is the most confusing region. Seriously, why is Pitt a 1 seed and why is Florida a 2 seed? With that being said, I think this is our upset region. Pitt goes down to the Butler-Old Dominion winner in the second round (I don't care what the NCAA says, it's still the "second" round). I'll give you the 5-12 upset guarantee with Utah State over Kansas State, and Wisconsin will barely squeak by pesky Belmont. A Bruins win wouldn't completely shock me, though. And the magic runs out for St. John's, which drew a tough matchup with the Zags. Sweet 16 in this region? Butler, Wisconsin, Gonzaga (sorry Jimmer) and Michigan State. In the all-Big Ten regional final, I'm tempted to take Michigan State, seeing as they make the Final Four every year regardless of seed, but I'm going to take Wisconsin.
That gives us a Final Four of North Carolina, Duke, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.
Duke-North Carolina IV will resemble the first matchup (a 79-73 Duke win in Durham) more than the last two (a North Carolina blowout in Chapel Hill and a Duke blowout in the ACC final). But Duke is the defending National Champion, and having Kyrie Irving back is certainly going to help. Of course, with this rivalry, having the better team doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Duke has the better team. Especially with Kyrie Irving. If he's healthy enough to be able to make a difference, Duke wins. In the other game, Notre Dame will finally look like the team that should've won the Big East Tournament and been a No. 1 seed. Great job by Wisconsin to get to this point, but if Notre Dame plays the way it's capable of, the Irish play for the national title.
It'll be a bunch of smart guys (or at least schools that are hard for us normal people to get into) in the National Championship Game, as Duke takes on Notre Dame. It would be something if Notre Dame were to win a National Championship in basketball while its football team can barely figure out a way to schedule teams it can actually beat, but I don't see that happening. Duke's way too deep. Plus, I think they'll find a way to take both Hansbrough and Abromaitis out of the game. Combine that with the fact Notre Dame won't really have an answer for all the different looks Duke can throw out there, and I see a repeat National Championship. Duke was the preseason No. 1 for a reason. They'll end the season as No. 1 as well.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
My NIT Bracket
Yes, you read that correctly. Now that the bracket has been announced, a bunch of disappointed bubble teams must regroup and get ready for the NIT. Of course, the benefit they get to enjoy in the NIT is home games until the quarterfinals, with the semis and final at Madison Square Garden. Nobody ever bothers to predict the NIT field (partially because it's insignificant, partially because picking the NCAA field is hard enough). Never fear, that's what I'm here for.
When the NCAA bought the NIT, they made the very smart decision to give automatic bids to the NIT to conference regular season champions that didn't win their tournaments. That number obviously changes every year depending on how many of those teams get at-large bids, but this year there will be 13 NIT auto bids. That leaves 19 at-large bids for those whose bubbles were burst (Colorado, Alabama, Virginia Tech), as well as the major-conference teams that knew they weren't going to get into the Tournament (Maryland, Baylor, Mississippi). So, without further ado, here's possibly the first NIT mock bracket you've ever actually seen somebody create (*-auto bids):
Boston College Region
(8) *Vermont at (1) Boston College
(5) *Kent State at (4) *Harvard
(6) Cleveland State at (3) Minnesota
(7) *Fairfield at (2) Maryland
Alabama Region
(8) *Bethune-Cookman at (1) Alabama
(5) *Murray State at (4) Miami
(6) Oklahoma State at (3) Colorado State
(7) *College of Charleston at (2) Baylor
Virginia Tech Region
(8) *Coastal Carolina at (1) Virginia Tech
(5) Dayton at (4) Nebraska
(6) Northwestern at (3) *Missouri State
(7) *Florida Atlantic at (2) Mississippi
Colorado Region
(8) *McNeese State at (1) Colorado
(5) Washington State at (4) Saint Mary's
(6) *Texas Southern at (3) UTEP
(7) *Long Beach State at (2) New Mexico
So there you go. Once they get to the Garden, it would be BC vs. Alabama and Virginia Tech vs. Colorado. If anyone actually cares, the NIT Selection Show is tonight at 9:00 on ESPNU. But seeing as my Cleveland State-Minnesota and Washington State-Saint Mary's games are better than the Texas-San Antonio vs. Alabama State and UNC Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock matchups that the NCAA gave us, finding out who's in the NIT might have some appeal.
And for the record, no I will NOT be filling out my projected CBI and CIT brackets.
When the NCAA bought the NIT, they made the very smart decision to give automatic bids to the NIT to conference regular season champions that didn't win their tournaments. That number obviously changes every year depending on how many of those teams get at-large bids, but this year there will be 13 NIT auto bids. That leaves 19 at-large bids for those whose bubbles were burst (Colorado, Alabama, Virginia Tech), as well as the major-conference teams that knew they weren't going to get into the Tournament (Maryland, Baylor, Mississippi). So, without further ado, here's possibly the first NIT mock bracket you've ever actually seen somebody create (*-auto bids):
Boston College Region
(8) *Vermont at (1) Boston College
(5) *Kent State at (4) *Harvard
(6) Cleveland State at (3) Minnesota
(7) *Fairfield at (2) Maryland
Alabama Region
(8) *Bethune-Cookman at (1) Alabama
(5) *Murray State at (4) Miami
(6) Oklahoma State at (3) Colorado State
(7) *College of Charleston at (2) Baylor
Virginia Tech Region
(8) *Coastal Carolina at (1) Virginia Tech
(5) Dayton at (4) Nebraska
(6) Northwestern at (3) *Missouri State
(7) *Florida Atlantic at (2) Mississippi
Colorado Region
(8) *McNeese State at (1) Colorado
(5) Washington State at (4) Saint Mary's
(6) *Texas Southern at (3) UTEP
(7) *Long Beach State at (2) New Mexico
So there you go. Once they get to the Garden, it would be BC vs. Alabama and Virginia Tech vs. Colorado. If anyone actually cares, the NIT Selection Show is tonight at 9:00 on ESPNU. But seeing as my Cleveland State-Minnesota and Washington State-Saint Mary's games are better than the Texas-San Antonio vs. Alabama State and UNC Asheville vs. Arkansas-Little Rock matchups that the NCAA gave us, finding out who's in the NIT might have some appeal.
And for the record, no I will NOT be filling out my projected CBI and CIT brackets.
Defining Success Differently
Today Georgia Tech's Paul Hewitt became the latest college coach who'll be looking for a new job next season. It's not that Hewitt's a bad coach or that he did poorly in his 11 seasons (the Yellow Jackets went to the NCAA Tournament five times under Hewitt), it's just that success is defined differently at BCS schools than it is at mid-majors (where most BCS schools get their coaches from).
Hewitt went to Georgia Tech from Siena, where he went to the NCAA Tournament once and the NIT once in three seasons. At a school like Siena, just getting to any postseason tournament means you had a successful season. But at a school in one of the six BCS conferences, going to the NIT is considered a disappointment. Just ask Billy Gillespie. Gillespie was fired by Kentucky after the 2008-09 season, when the Wildcats finished 22-14. Why? Because Kentucky went to the NIT that season, ending a string of 17 consecutive NCAA appearances.
Steve Lavin's another great example. Lavin, who's currently the head coach at St. John's, was the head coach at UCLA from 1996-2003. Under anybody else's definition of success, Lavin was successful at UCLA. The Bruins went to the Sweet 16 in each of his first six seasons, but were 10-17 in 2002-03 and Lavin was fired. Normally one losing season is just considered a bad year, but not at UCLA. Lavin was a "failure" because he didn't win the National Championship every year. UCLA fans got spoiled during the '60s and '70s when John Wooden was the coach and they won the national title every season. Apparently their fans don't realize that going to the Sweet 16 every year isn't a bad thing (for the record, they went 11-17 in 2003-04, Ben Howland's first season, before Howland took them to back-to-back Final Fours). Steve Lavin is a very good coach. If you want proof, look at what he did at St. John's this season. St. John's hasn't been in the Tournament since 2002, but is going this season and probably will for the forseeable future.
Another one of my favorite examples is Harvard coach Tommy Amaker. Amaker started his career at Seton Hall, where he went to the NIT three times and the Tournament once (reaching the Sweet 16 in 2000) in four years. After that, he left Seton Hall to become the head coach at Michigan. In six seasons at Michigan, he went 108-84, winning the 2004 NIT and finishing second in the NIT two years later. But he never went to the Tournament, which is unacceptable at Michigan, so he got canned after the 2006-07 season.
Amaker was immediately hired at Harvard and turned the program around. Here's where I need to give you a little background about the Harvard men's basketball program. I was at Yale at the time, so I experienced this first-hand. Harvard basketball wasn't only bad, it was irrelevant. The administration wanted to change that, and they though a big-name coach was the solution. Fast forward four years. Amaker has led Harvard to back-to-back 20-win seasons and the first Ivy League championship in program history (they split it with Princeton this season). The Crimson lost a one-game Ivy playoff against the Tigers, just missing out on their first NCAA berth since 1946! It's only a matter of time before Harvard ends that drought.
Now, there are also a bunch of mid-major schools that are looking for new head coaches. For the most part, these firings are based on wins and losses. It doesn't matter how your school defines success, 6-24 is bad according to pretty much any definition out there. If it's your first year or there were a bunch of injuries maybe you get a mulligan, but a few years of not winning in a row means it's probably inevitable.
Anyway, when a coach at a BCS school gets fired, successful mid-major coaches are generally considered the most likely candidates. But when a coach at a mid-major is let go, those talked about as potential candidates are usually long-time assistants at major programs or young up-and-coming assistants who have never been head coaches before. I have no problem with the young up-and-coming assistants building successful mid-major programs, then moving on to bigger-name schools, but I think more programs could benefit from hiring the likes of a Tommy Amaker or another former Michigan coach, Steve Fisher at San Diego State. Fisher won the 1989 National Championship and went to two other National Championship Games while at Michigan before he was fired after the 1996-97 season. In 1999-2000, he took over at San Diego State, a program with absolutely no tradition that hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in 17 years. San Diego State is currently 32-2 and has won at least 20 games in six straight years.
My point is, young assistants can be a risk. They might not work out, and if they do, they'll likely leave after a few years to take over at a big-time program. But if a mid-major wants to have "success" the way it's defined at that level, why not go the other way? Hire a guy who used to be at a big-time program. It's not that they can't coach. Paul Hewitt, Billy Gillespie and Keno Davis (to name just a few) all obviously know the game and know how to coach it. It's just that different expectations lead to different definitions of success. Maybe they need mid-majors just like mid-majors might need them. Just ask Tommy Amaker. Or Harvard's administrators. That one sure worked out nicely, didn't it?
Hewitt went to Georgia Tech from Siena, where he went to the NCAA Tournament once and the NIT once in three seasons. At a school like Siena, just getting to any postseason tournament means you had a successful season. But at a school in one of the six BCS conferences, going to the NIT is considered a disappointment. Just ask Billy Gillespie. Gillespie was fired by Kentucky after the 2008-09 season, when the Wildcats finished 22-14. Why? Because Kentucky went to the NIT that season, ending a string of 17 consecutive NCAA appearances.
Steve Lavin's another great example. Lavin, who's currently the head coach at St. John's, was the head coach at UCLA from 1996-2003. Under anybody else's definition of success, Lavin was successful at UCLA. The Bruins went to the Sweet 16 in each of his first six seasons, but were 10-17 in 2002-03 and Lavin was fired. Normally one losing season is just considered a bad year, but not at UCLA. Lavin was a "failure" because he didn't win the National Championship every year. UCLA fans got spoiled during the '60s and '70s when John Wooden was the coach and they won the national title every season. Apparently their fans don't realize that going to the Sweet 16 every year isn't a bad thing (for the record, they went 11-17 in 2003-04, Ben Howland's first season, before Howland took them to back-to-back Final Fours). Steve Lavin is a very good coach. If you want proof, look at what he did at St. John's this season. St. John's hasn't been in the Tournament since 2002, but is going this season and probably will for the forseeable future.
Another one of my favorite examples is Harvard coach Tommy Amaker. Amaker started his career at Seton Hall, where he went to the NIT three times and the Tournament once (reaching the Sweet 16 in 2000) in four years. After that, he left Seton Hall to become the head coach at Michigan. In six seasons at Michigan, he went 108-84, winning the 2004 NIT and finishing second in the NIT two years later. But he never went to the Tournament, which is unacceptable at Michigan, so he got canned after the 2006-07 season.
Amaker was immediately hired at Harvard and turned the program around. Here's where I need to give you a little background about the Harvard men's basketball program. I was at Yale at the time, so I experienced this first-hand. Harvard basketball wasn't only bad, it was irrelevant. The administration wanted to change that, and they though a big-name coach was the solution. Fast forward four years. Amaker has led Harvard to back-to-back 20-win seasons and the first Ivy League championship in program history (they split it with Princeton this season). The Crimson lost a one-game Ivy playoff against the Tigers, just missing out on their first NCAA berth since 1946! It's only a matter of time before Harvard ends that drought.
Now, there are also a bunch of mid-major schools that are looking for new head coaches. For the most part, these firings are based on wins and losses. It doesn't matter how your school defines success, 6-24 is bad according to pretty much any definition out there. If it's your first year or there were a bunch of injuries maybe you get a mulligan, but a few years of not winning in a row means it's probably inevitable.
Anyway, when a coach at a BCS school gets fired, successful mid-major coaches are generally considered the most likely candidates. But when a coach at a mid-major is let go, those talked about as potential candidates are usually long-time assistants at major programs or young up-and-coming assistants who have never been head coaches before. I have no problem with the young up-and-coming assistants building successful mid-major programs, then moving on to bigger-name schools, but I think more programs could benefit from hiring the likes of a Tommy Amaker or another former Michigan coach, Steve Fisher at San Diego State. Fisher won the 1989 National Championship and went to two other National Championship Games while at Michigan before he was fired after the 1996-97 season. In 1999-2000, he took over at San Diego State, a program with absolutely no tradition that hadn't reached the NCAA Tournament in 17 years. San Diego State is currently 32-2 and has won at least 20 games in six straight years.
My point is, young assistants can be a risk. They might not work out, and if they do, they'll likely leave after a few years to take over at a big-time program. But if a mid-major wants to have "success" the way it's defined at that level, why not go the other way? Hire a guy who used to be at a big-time program. It's not that they can't coach. Paul Hewitt, Billy Gillespie and Keno Davis (to name just a few) all obviously know the game and know how to coach it. It's just that different expectations lead to different definitions of success. Maybe they need mid-majors just like mid-majors might need them. Just ask Tommy Amaker. Or Harvard's administrators. That one sure worked out nicely, didn't it?
Friday, March 11, 2011
Busy Week
Well, this has certainly been one busy week in sports, hasn't it?
Today we finally had the inevitable: the NFL Players Association de-certified and the players filed antitrust litigation against the owners. It's not like I wanted a lockout to happen, but I was sooooo sick of all the fake posturing both sides were doing. Everybody knew there was eventually going to be a lockout, so why did they keep extending the CBA? They were just going through the motions. Both sides. Every time I heard anything about the NFL my reaction was always the same: "Just do it already!" Now they've finally done it. I loved the NFL's statement calling on the union to go back to mediator and negoitate. The NFL Players Association no longer exists, so I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to work. I also loved it how Patriots owner Robert Kraft kept providing the media with updates on the negotiations while he was in Israel!
Spring Training has kicked into full gear with various players and teams making news for all kinds of reasons. Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg resigned because he couldn't get along with Nolan Ryan and was replaced by...Nolan Ryan. Speaking of the Rangers, Michael Young is currently working out at third base because Adrian Beltre is injured. I'm not going to say "I told you so," but I will say "guess you're glad you didn't trade him, huh?"
In other baseball news, Carlos Beltran voluntarily moved to right field. As if that's going to help the Mets. They need to not be paying Carlos Beltran anymore. At least they've realized that paying both Beltran and Ollie Perez to be useless is a bad idea, so they're going to release Ollie. But the fact that Beltran is stealing money from them is the least of the Mets' problems. The money that the Wilpons gave to Bernie Madoff, who then stole money from a whole bunch of other people is the problem. The New York Mets, such a trainwreck. They're so damn unintentionally entertaining that you don't want to look away out of fear you'll miss something. Just like a Charlie Sheen press conference. (Sidebar, does anyone even care how John Cryer and Angus T. Jones feel about having their show effectively cancelled because he's a whack job?)
On to the NHL (yes, believe it or not, there is a hockey season currently being played). With a little more than a month left in the regular season, the playoff races are getting nuts, especially in the West, where just six points separate the defending champion Blackhawks in fourth and the Wild in 11th. The race is tight in the east, too. Six teams are solidly in, but the Rangers, Sabres and Hurricanes are in a dogfight for the other two spots. And I completely agree with the NHL's decision not to further penalize Zdeno Chara for his hit on the Canadiens' Max Pacioretty (the video is below).
Chara's not a dirty player. He's a 6'9 monster wearing ice skates. The play was just an unfortunate combination of circumstances where Pacioretty hit the boards at exactly the wrong place. The fact that the Montreal police are pursuing charges is completely ludicrous.
And, of course, there's college basketball. I enjoy the first week of March Madness (the conference tournaments) as much as, if not more than the NCAA Tournament. I'm currently watching UConn-Syracuse in the Big East semifinals, a matchup that will always have special significance for me. The first college basketball game I ever went to was the UConn-Syracuse Big East final when I was seven years old. It would take me about three more blog posts to talk about all the twists and turns of the conference tournaments, so I'm not going to do that. The officiating in the St. John's-Rutgers game would deserve one of its own.
I will say this though: the "other" Joe Brackets is driving me crazy with his constantly changing bracket. It's not so much the constant changes that bother me (in fact, just the opposite, I like that ESPN gives us those updates on the bottom line), but the fact that some of those changes don't make any sense. Case in point, Notre Dame slaughters Cincinnati last night to move up to a No. 1 seed. No problem there. But the No. 1 seed that got dropped down to Notre Dame's No. 2 wasn't Pitt, which lost to UConn earlier in the day, it was Duke, which didn't even play until today. And teams that don't play keep getting moved around between the "Last Four Byes," "Last Four In," and "Last Four Out" categories. I have no problem with moving teams around on those lines based on winning or losing (for example, Marquette and Colorado have both played their way in), but just doing it arbitrarily when they don't even play really bothers me.
Maybe that just means I've been watching way too much college basketball over the past few days for something like that to annoy me. As for my bracket, it probably won't be updated until sometime tomorrow night or Sunday when we know who's in from all the mid-majors (the Big Ten and ACC championship games will have little bearing on who I think is in the field).
Today we finally had the inevitable: the NFL Players Association de-certified and the players filed antitrust litigation against the owners. It's not like I wanted a lockout to happen, but I was sooooo sick of all the fake posturing both sides were doing. Everybody knew there was eventually going to be a lockout, so why did they keep extending the CBA? They were just going through the motions. Both sides. Every time I heard anything about the NFL my reaction was always the same: "Just do it already!" Now they've finally done it. I loved the NFL's statement calling on the union to go back to mediator and negoitate. The NFL Players Association no longer exists, so I'm not exactly sure how that's supposed to work. I also loved it how Patriots owner Robert Kraft kept providing the media with updates on the negotiations while he was in Israel!
Spring Training has kicked into full gear with various players and teams making news for all kinds of reasons. Rangers CEO Chuck Greenberg resigned because he couldn't get along with Nolan Ryan and was replaced by...Nolan Ryan. Speaking of the Rangers, Michael Young is currently working out at third base because Adrian Beltre is injured. I'm not going to say "I told you so," but I will say "guess you're glad you didn't trade him, huh?"
In other baseball news, Carlos Beltran voluntarily moved to right field. As if that's going to help the Mets. They need to not be paying Carlos Beltran anymore. At least they've realized that paying both Beltran and Ollie Perez to be useless is a bad idea, so they're going to release Ollie. But the fact that Beltran is stealing money from them is the least of the Mets' problems. The money that the Wilpons gave to Bernie Madoff, who then stole money from a whole bunch of other people is the problem. The New York Mets, such a trainwreck. They're so damn unintentionally entertaining that you don't want to look away out of fear you'll miss something. Just like a Charlie Sheen press conference. (Sidebar, does anyone even care how John Cryer and Angus T. Jones feel about having their show effectively cancelled because he's a whack job?)
On to the NHL (yes, believe it or not, there is a hockey season currently being played). With a little more than a month left in the regular season, the playoff races are getting nuts, especially in the West, where just six points separate the defending champion Blackhawks in fourth and the Wild in 11th. The race is tight in the east, too. Six teams are solidly in, but the Rangers, Sabres and Hurricanes are in a dogfight for the other two spots. And I completely agree with the NHL's decision not to further penalize Zdeno Chara for his hit on the Canadiens' Max Pacioretty (the video is below).
Chara's not a dirty player. He's a 6'9 monster wearing ice skates. The play was just an unfortunate combination of circumstances where Pacioretty hit the boards at exactly the wrong place. The fact that the Montreal police are pursuing charges is completely ludicrous.
And, of course, there's college basketball. I enjoy the first week of March Madness (the conference tournaments) as much as, if not more than the NCAA Tournament. I'm currently watching UConn-Syracuse in the Big East semifinals, a matchup that will always have special significance for me. The first college basketball game I ever went to was the UConn-Syracuse Big East final when I was seven years old. It would take me about three more blog posts to talk about all the twists and turns of the conference tournaments, so I'm not going to do that. The officiating in the St. John's-Rutgers game would deserve one of its own.
I will say this though: the "other" Joe Brackets is driving me crazy with his constantly changing bracket. It's not so much the constant changes that bother me (in fact, just the opposite, I like that ESPN gives us those updates on the bottom line), but the fact that some of those changes don't make any sense. Case in point, Notre Dame slaughters Cincinnati last night to move up to a No. 1 seed. No problem there. But the No. 1 seed that got dropped down to Notre Dame's No. 2 wasn't Pitt, which lost to UConn earlier in the day, it was Duke, which didn't even play until today. And teams that don't play keep getting moved around between the "Last Four Byes," "Last Four In," and "Last Four Out" categories. I have no problem with moving teams around on those lines based on winning or losing (for example, Marquette and Colorado have both played their way in), but just doing it arbitrarily when they don't even play really bothers me.
Maybe that just means I've been watching way too much college basketball over the past few days for something like that to annoy me. As for my bracket, it probably won't be updated until sometime tomorrow night or Sunday when we know who's in from all the mid-majors (the Big Ten and ACC championship games will have little bearing on who I think is in the field).
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Not a Fan of 68
We're only a week away from the first 68-team NCAA Tournament, so it's time for me to tell you my feelings on the new format, especially the "First Four." As you probably guessed by the title of today's blog, I'm not a fan of 68 teams. Is 68 better than the 96 they were thinking about this time last year? Yes. Is it better than 65? No.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Yes, that's a cliche, but the reason cliches become cliches is because they ring true over and over again. The NCAA Tournament is one of the greatest events in sports. The tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, then added the play-in game in 2001. 64 is the perfect number. It divides evenly into six rounds. Everybody's on equal footing at the start of the tournament. It's part of why the tournament was so perfect. It's why the upsets that define the event are able to happen.
When the Mountain West was formed and they needed to add a team, creating the play-in game wasn't a problem with anybody. The two worst teams play for the right to get smoked by a No. 1 seed. But the NCAA decided that they wanted to expand the field, so it became inevitable. Now, if given the choice between 68 and 96, I'm taking 68 in a heartbeat. 96 would be too many. There simply aren't 96 teams worthy of competing for a National Championship. (Even in a 64-team field, only about 10-15 schools were capable of winning the whole tournament, but there are 31 conferences and their champions all deserve inclusion.) Plus, the 32 first-round byes that would be created would give those teams such a tremendous advantage and greatly reduce the possibility of those upsets.
I'm able to make my peace with 68, but I don't like the structure of the new tournament. The way it's set up now, the lowest four seeds play two games and the winners move on to play No. 1 seeds, and the last four at-large teams (the four teams that wouldn't have gotten into the field last year) play the other two games. That's what I don't like about the new format. The "First Four" should be between the eight lowest seeds, and the four winners move on to play the four No. 1 seeds.
I know that the argument against my proposal is that it's unfair to relegate eight smaller conferences to the "play-in" games, but I've got logic on my side here. Obviously no conference wants to have its champion relegated to the play-in game while the 34 teams that didn't win their conference but still made the tournament didn't have to, but that was true for the 10 years that there was only one play-in game. And, this just in, all 10 Big East teams that get into the tournament are better than Wofford and UNC Asheville!
Anyway, time to get back on track. If the eight lowest seeds play each other for the right to lose to the No. 1 seeds, that means four of them are guaranteed NCAA Tournament wins. There's no guarantee that happens if they face the Dukes and Ohio States and Kansases of the world in their first tournament game. Plus, doing it this way makes getting one of the four No. 1 seeds even more of an advantage. Not only would the No. 1 seeds be playing the four "weakest" teams in the field, they would effectively be given byes while the teams they end up playing would all have a game under their belts.
If there are only going to be four byes in a tournament, they should go to the four best teams. Seriously, why do two No. 5 seeds get byes? That's really the main flaw I see in the "First Four" format. Giving No. 1 seeds byes makes sense, but giving byes to two random No. 5 seeds seems totally arbitrary. All 12 teams that will be seeded No. 2, 3 or 4 don't get a bye, but two No. 5 seeds (which go to the 17th-20th best teams in the tournament) do? I know the counter-argument is that the last four at-large teams wouldn't have been in the tournament last year and that everybody still plays their first game on either Thursday or Friday, so what's the difference? The difference is that it doesn't seem right to give two No. 5 seeds an advantage over the other two, and that 14 of the 16 teams seeded ahead of them don't get that same advantage.
I also have a slight problem with this whole truTV thing, but that's mainly because I'd never heard of that channel before last year when they announced that it would air tournament games this year. I'm not even sure I get truTV. I'm going to have to look for it. You shouldn't have to check to see if you get the channel that NCAA Tournament games are on. At least the NCAA was considerate enough to put a little channel guide on the official bracket where you can write in what channel each of the four networks is on. Come to think of it, maybe I'll just watch the NIT instead. I know what channel it's on, and I have a feeling those games are going to be better.
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Yes, that's a cliche, but the reason cliches become cliches is because they ring true over and over again. The NCAA Tournament is one of the greatest events in sports. The tournament expanded to 64 in 1985, then added the play-in game in 2001. 64 is the perfect number. It divides evenly into six rounds. Everybody's on equal footing at the start of the tournament. It's part of why the tournament was so perfect. It's why the upsets that define the event are able to happen.
When the Mountain West was formed and they needed to add a team, creating the play-in game wasn't a problem with anybody. The two worst teams play for the right to get smoked by a No. 1 seed. But the NCAA decided that they wanted to expand the field, so it became inevitable. Now, if given the choice between 68 and 96, I'm taking 68 in a heartbeat. 96 would be too many. There simply aren't 96 teams worthy of competing for a National Championship. (Even in a 64-team field, only about 10-15 schools were capable of winning the whole tournament, but there are 31 conferences and their champions all deserve inclusion.) Plus, the 32 first-round byes that would be created would give those teams such a tremendous advantage and greatly reduce the possibility of those upsets.
I'm able to make my peace with 68, but I don't like the structure of the new tournament. The way it's set up now, the lowest four seeds play two games and the winners move on to play No. 1 seeds, and the last four at-large teams (the four teams that wouldn't have gotten into the field last year) play the other two games. That's what I don't like about the new format. The "First Four" should be between the eight lowest seeds, and the four winners move on to play the four No. 1 seeds.
I know that the argument against my proposal is that it's unfair to relegate eight smaller conferences to the "play-in" games, but I've got logic on my side here. Obviously no conference wants to have its champion relegated to the play-in game while the 34 teams that didn't win their conference but still made the tournament didn't have to, but that was true for the 10 years that there was only one play-in game. And, this just in, all 10 Big East teams that get into the tournament are better than Wofford and UNC Asheville!
Anyway, time to get back on track. If the eight lowest seeds play each other for the right to lose to the No. 1 seeds, that means four of them are guaranteed NCAA Tournament wins. There's no guarantee that happens if they face the Dukes and Ohio States and Kansases of the world in their first tournament game. Plus, doing it this way makes getting one of the four No. 1 seeds even more of an advantage. Not only would the No. 1 seeds be playing the four "weakest" teams in the field, they would effectively be given byes while the teams they end up playing would all have a game under their belts.
If there are only going to be four byes in a tournament, they should go to the four best teams. Seriously, why do two No. 5 seeds get byes? That's really the main flaw I see in the "First Four" format. Giving No. 1 seeds byes makes sense, but giving byes to two random No. 5 seeds seems totally arbitrary. All 12 teams that will be seeded No. 2, 3 or 4 don't get a bye, but two No. 5 seeds (which go to the 17th-20th best teams in the tournament) do? I know the counter-argument is that the last four at-large teams wouldn't have been in the tournament last year and that everybody still plays their first game on either Thursday or Friday, so what's the difference? The difference is that it doesn't seem right to give two No. 5 seeds an advantage over the other two, and that 14 of the 16 teams seeded ahead of them don't get that same advantage.
I also have a slight problem with this whole truTV thing, but that's mainly because I'd never heard of that channel before last year when they announced that it would air tournament games this year. I'm not even sure I get truTV. I'm going to have to look for it. You shouldn't have to check to see if you get the channel that NCAA Tournament games are on. At least the NCAA was considerate enough to put a little channel guide on the official bracket where you can write in what channel each of the four networks is on. Come to think of it, maybe I'll just watch the NIT instead. I know what channel it's on, and I have a feeling those games are going to be better.
Monday, March 7, 2011
Women's All-Americans
Last week I gave you my choices for the men's All-Americans, and since I'm an equal opportunity college basketball fan, it's time to give the women their due. Now, there are only three spots available. Maya Moore and Brittany Griner are clearly so much better than everybody else that they really should create a separate category for the two of them. Anyway, there are four dominant teams in women's basketball, and UConn and Baylor are already taken care of. That leaves Stanford, Tennessee and everybody else. But while Stanford has two players that are worthy of All-American selections, Tennessee has a bunch of really good players. I don't think the Lady Vols have any All-Americans, though. But back to the point, here are my five selections, starting with the two obvious ones:
Maya Moore, Connecticut-The two-time reigning National Player of the Year, Moore looks like a lock to win her third. It's clear that she's the best player in the nation. Everyone gets that, but this year she made her case for best women's college player ever. (That contest would be between her, Diana Taurasi, Chamique Holdsclaw, Candice Parker and Cheryl Miller.) But back to this season. The numbers: 22.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.3 spg, 1.2 bpg, .538 FG, .386 3-pt, .878 FT. Point is, she's good. Yes, UConn lost a game this season--its third in her four years! So what? That snapped a 90-game winning streak, and they've won 19 straight since then. I think they rebounded nicely.
Brittany Griner, Baylor-Griner is primed to take over Moore's title as "Best Player In Women's College Basketball" next season. She almost had a triple-double when Baylor almost (and should've) beat UConn in November, and she single-handedly took them to the Final Four last season, when the Bears weren't anywhere near as good as they are this year. She's currently averaging 22.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. She's also second in the nation in blocks, averaging 4.5 per game. Griner's only a sophomore, but she's already second on the Big 12's all-time list with 357 career blocks.
Jeannette Pohlen, Stanford-There were really two choices from Stanford, and either one would be a good pick. But I'm going with Pohlen over Kayla Pedersen. (You could even include Nnemkadi Ogwumike and make the case that Stanford has three deserving players.) Pohlen's numbers don't kick you in the face like Moore's and Griner's, but she's put together a solid season with 15.8 points, 3.3 boards and 4.8 assists per game. She also drains 2.8 three-pointers per game and is shooting .432 from three-point range. But that's not why I'm giving her the nod. She was clearly the best player on the floor when Stanford beat UConn. That's why.
Jantel Lavender, Ohio State-The latest in a long line of great Ohio State post players (remember Jessica Davenport?), Lavender was just named MVP of the Big Ten Tournament for the third straight time. She was also the Big Ten Player of the Year...again. Ohio State had a bad year (by their standards), but it wasn't her fault. Lavender averaged a double-double (22.7 points, 10.9 rebounds) while playing 37.3 minutes per game. The Buckeyes underachieved all season, but are hosting the first two rounds of the tournament, which makes them dangerous. I wouldn't want to see Jantel Lavender in the tournament.
Amber Harris, Xavier-Xavier is the best team in the nation that nobody knows about. Amber Moore is Xavier's best player. She also averages a double-double (18.8 points, 10.3 rebounds), while also averaging 2.2 assists and 2.3 blocks. And she's shooting .516 from the field. Just like UConn, Xavier hasn't lost since playing Stanford. The Musketeers are 28-2 and playing the first two rounds at home. Look out in the tournament.
Harris's teammate Ta'Shia Phillips and the other two Stanford players could also have been considered, but they fall into that "Best of the Rest" category. Also included among the "Best of the Rest": Gonzaga's Courtney Vandersloot, Tennessee's Shekinna Stricklen, Duke's Karima Christmas, Notre Dame's Skylar Diggins, Texas A&M's Danielle Adams, Oklahoma's Danielle Robinson, and Courtney Hurt of VCU (who leads the nation in rebounding and is third in scoring).
Maya Moore, Connecticut-The two-time reigning National Player of the Year, Moore looks like a lock to win her third. It's clear that she's the best player in the nation. Everyone gets that, but this year she made her case for best women's college player ever. (That contest would be between her, Diana Taurasi, Chamique Holdsclaw, Candice Parker and Cheryl Miller.) But back to this season. The numbers: 22.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.3 spg, 1.2 bpg, .538 FG, .386 3-pt, .878 FT. Point is, she's good. Yes, UConn lost a game this season--its third in her four years! So what? That snapped a 90-game winning streak, and they've won 19 straight since then. I think they rebounded nicely.
Brittany Griner, Baylor-Griner is primed to take over Moore's title as "Best Player In Women's College Basketball" next season. She almost had a triple-double when Baylor almost (and should've) beat UConn in November, and she single-handedly took them to the Final Four last season, when the Bears weren't anywhere near as good as they are this year. She's currently averaging 22.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. She's also second in the nation in blocks, averaging 4.5 per game. Griner's only a sophomore, but she's already second on the Big 12's all-time list with 357 career blocks.
Jeannette Pohlen, Stanford-There were really two choices from Stanford, and either one would be a good pick. But I'm going with Pohlen over Kayla Pedersen. (You could even include Nnemkadi Ogwumike and make the case that Stanford has three deserving players.) Pohlen's numbers don't kick you in the face like Moore's and Griner's, but she's put together a solid season with 15.8 points, 3.3 boards and 4.8 assists per game. She also drains 2.8 three-pointers per game and is shooting .432 from three-point range. But that's not why I'm giving her the nod. She was clearly the best player on the floor when Stanford beat UConn. That's why.
Jantel Lavender, Ohio State-The latest in a long line of great Ohio State post players (remember Jessica Davenport?), Lavender was just named MVP of the Big Ten Tournament for the third straight time. She was also the Big Ten Player of the Year...again. Ohio State had a bad year (by their standards), but it wasn't her fault. Lavender averaged a double-double (22.7 points, 10.9 rebounds) while playing 37.3 minutes per game. The Buckeyes underachieved all season, but are hosting the first two rounds of the tournament, which makes them dangerous. I wouldn't want to see Jantel Lavender in the tournament.
Amber Harris, Xavier-Xavier is the best team in the nation that nobody knows about. Amber Moore is Xavier's best player. She also averages a double-double (18.8 points, 10.3 rebounds), while also averaging 2.2 assists and 2.3 blocks. And she's shooting .516 from the field. Just like UConn, Xavier hasn't lost since playing Stanford. The Musketeers are 28-2 and playing the first two rounds at home. Look out in the tournament.
Harris's teammate Ta'Shia Phillips and the other two Stanford players could also have been considered, but they fall into that "Best of the Rest" category. Also included among the "Best of the Rest": Gonzaga's Courtney Vandersloot, Tennessee's Shekinna Stricklen, Duke's Karima Christmas, Notre Dame's Skylar Diggins, Texas A&M's Danielle Adams, Oklahoma's Danielle Robinson, and Courtney Hurt of VCU (who leads the nation in rebounding and is third in scoring).
Friday, March 4, 2011
Lockout Looming
The NFL's CBA was set to expire tonight at midnight, but they extended it by a day. I'm not exactly sure why. It's not as if the lockout isn't inevitable. Various columns and blogs by various NFL experts have opined on this subject in recent days, and everyone seems to agree on one thing: the NFL's first work stoppage in 24 years is going to happen. It's just a matter of when.
Now keep in mind, this is a lockout, not a strike. The players would be more than happy to continue coming to work everyday, but the owners aren't going to let them. I was already pretty sure of my stance on the looming lockout, then Rick Reilly (among others) made me absolutely certain of who's side I'm on. I'm backing the players in this dispute.
The players have a good thing going. They don't want to change it. Why should they? Right now, players receive 60 percent of all league revenues after $1 billion is given to the owners to cover operating costs. Frankly, they deserve it. The average NFL career lasts 3-5 years. That greatly limits the earning potential for the average NFL player. Add in the toll playing football takes on the body and the years of chronic medical problems that many players suffer through after they retire, you could argue that the players deserve more. The current CBA is heavily weighted in the union's favor (which is one of the reasons why the owners opted out). The players are even willing to make slight concessions to get a deal done. But the owners are asking for too much.
For the most part, the owners are being selfish and greedy. Player salaries rose so high partly because the owners were willing to pay them that much. Since the owners opted out of the soon-to-expire CBA, there was no salary cap last season. Do you really think they'll ever be able to convince the players to agree to a salary cap again? The owners want a rookie wage scale. The players have no problem with that. In fact, they agree that Sam Bradford shouldn't make more money than a majority of the other quarterbacks in the league simply because he was drafted first. Establish yourself as a star, then get paid like one. Not the other way around. But they want the ability to become free agents earlier. The owners don't want that, and don't really seem willing to budge.
One of the reasons the owners opted out is because they said their expenses were getting too high to continue doing business under the current model. One of the reasons they're "losing money" is because they're building new stadiums. Yet, a lot of the money that's spent to build those stadiums comes from the taxpayers (aka, the fans). Then once the stadium is finished, those same fans have to pay personal seat liceneses just for the right to buy tickets. Plus parking. Plus concessions. Plus all those luxury suites. Who gets all that money again? I'll give you a hint: it's not the players.
As a means of adding revenue, the owners want to increase the season from 16 to 18 games and reduce the preseason from four games to two. I've already gone on record as saying I hate the idea of an 18-game schedule. The NFL doesn't need it and fans don't want it. Mr. Brilliant Commissioner and his owner cronies don't get that. They claim that fans don't want four preseason games. That's not the case. What the fans don't want is being forced to pay full-price for tickets to those preseason games. A lot of players (Ray Lewis is the most prominent) have spoken out against the proposed 18-game season, but it's not something the union is completely opposed to. The problem is the owners essentially want the players to play 18 regular season games, but pay them the same as they currently get for 16. Here the players are crying, "Foul!", and rightfully so.
In anticipation of a lockout, the owners had $4 billion put aside in the last round of TV contracts just in case there was no season in 2011. In other words, the owners still get paid even if there's no football come September. Thus, they don't really have that much of an incentive to get a deal done, since they'll get money anyway...and they don't have to share it with the players! Sign me up for a deal like that! Yet the owners continue to claim they're losing money. Sorry, not buying it. Neither is the federal mediator who's been asked to oversee the proceedings. He agrees that it's completely unfair that the owners were able to work "lockout insurance" into the TV contract, while the players will get nothing out of it.
Perhaps the only remaining option the players have is to decertify the union. If they do that, the NFL loses its antitrust exemption. Without a union representing them, the players are independent contractors and thus able to sue the NFL under federal antitrust laws. It worked in 1989. That might be the only thing that could possibly save the season. The players want to play. Don't forget that.
Mr. Brilliant Commissioner and his cronies decided to mess with a great thing. And it's going to be the fans who suffer. And it's 100 percent the owners' fault.
Now keep in mind, this is a lockout, not a strike. The players would be more than happy to continue coming to work everyday, but the owners aren't going to let them. I was already pretty sure of my stance on the looming lockout, then Rick Reilly (among others) made me absolutely certain of who's side I'm on. I'm backing the players in this dispute.
The players have a good thing going. They don't want to change it. Why should they? Right now, players receive 60 percent of all league revenues after $1 billion is given to the owners to cover operating costs. Frankly, they deserve it. The average NFL career lasts 3-5 years. That greatly limits the earning potential for the average NFL player. Add in the toll playing football takes on the body and the years of chronic medical problems that many players suffer through after they retire, you could argue that the players deserve more. The current CBA is heavily weighted in the union's favor (which is one of the reasons why the owners opted out). The players are even willing to make slight concessions to get a deal done. But the owners are asking for too much.
For the most part, the owners are being selfish and greedy. Player salaries rose so high partly because the owners were willing to pay them that much. Since the owners opted out of the soon-to-expire CBA, there was no salary cap last season. Do you really think they'll ever be able to convince the players to agree to a salary cap again? The owners want a rookie wage scale. The players have no problem with that. In fact, they agree that Sam Bradford shouldn't make more money than a majority of the other quarterbacks in the league simply because he was drafted first. Establish yourself as a star, then get paid like one. Not the other way around. But they want the ability to become free agents earlier. The owners don't want that, and don't really seem willing to budge.
One of the reasons the owners opted out is because they said their expenses were getting too high to continue doing business under the current model. One of the reasons they're "losing money" is because they're building new stadiums. Yet, a lot of the money that's spent to build those stadiums comes from the taxpayers (aka, the fans). Then once the stadium is finished, those same fans have to pay personal seat liceneses just for the right to buy tickets. Plus parking. Plus concessions. Plus all those luxury suites. Who gets all that money again? I'll give you a hint: it's not the players.
As a means of adding revenue, the owners want to increase the season from 16 to 18 games and reduce the preseason from four games to two. I've already gone on record as saying I hate the idea of an 18-game schedule. The NFL doesn't need it and fans don't want it. Mr. Brilliant Commissioner and his owner cronies don't get that. They claim that fans don't want four preseason games. That's not the case. What the fans don't want is being forced to pay full-price for tickets to those preseason games. A lot of players (Ray Lewis is the most prominent) have spoken out against the proposed 18-game season, but it's not something the union is completely opposed to. The problem is the owners essentially want the players to play 18 regular season games, but pay them the same as they currently get for 16. Here the players are crying, "Foul!", and rightfully so.
In anticipation of a lockout, the owners had $4 billion put aside in the last round of TV contracts just in case there was no season in 2011. In other words, the owners still get paid even if there's no football come September. Thus, they don't really have that much of an incentive to get a deal done, since they'll get money anyway...and they don't have to share it with the players! Sign me up for a deal like that! Yet the owners continue to claim they're losing money. Sorry, not buying it. Neither is the federal mediator who's been asked to oversee the proceedings. He agrees that it's completely unfair that the owners were able to work "lockout insurance" into the TV contract, while the players will get nothing out of it.
Perhaps the only remaining option the players have is to decertify the union. If they do that, the NFL loses its antitrust exemption. Without a union representing them, the players are independent contractors and thus able to sue the NFL under federal antitrust laws. It worked in 1989. That might be the only thing that could possibly save the season. The players want to play. Don't forget that.
Mr. Brilliant Commissioner and his cronies decided to mess with a great thing. And it's going to be the fans who suffer. And it's 100 percent the owners' fault.
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