After the Jaspers' exciting win over Penn in their home opener, I knew I had to hurry home. I had a blog to write. I made my first wrong MLB award prediction when Bud Black edged Dusty Baker by a point for NL Manager of the Year, but 4 out of 5 so far ain't bad. I have a feeling that I might get tomorrow's award wrong too, though. I have no idea who's going to win the AL Cy Young. But I know who shouldn't.
Felix Hernandez is a great pitcher. I'm not going to dispute that. He might've been the best pitcher in the American League this year. But being the best pitcher doesn't necessarily mean you should be the Cy Young winner. Hernandez led the AL with a 2.27 ERA and 249.2 innings pitched, while finishing second with 232 strikeouts. Impressive numbers no question. Here's where the problem comes in, he had only 13 wins. Now I saw how awesome King Felix is after seeing him beat the Yankees three times (including two shutouts), but the fact remains--he won only 13 games (and lost 12 by the way). Is it his fault the Mariners didn't score any runs? Of course not. And yes, he was the only pitcher on the team that anyone actually feared, but the number of wins can't (and shouldn't) be ignored. I don't understand all the "experts" who say they'd vote for Hernandez because wins are an "overrated" stat. Huh? Aren't wins the stat that's used to determine whether or not a team's good (and who makes the playoffs)? Some would claim that the precedent was set last year when Zack Greinke of the Royals won with just 16 wins for a last-place team, but Greinke was clearly so much better than everybody else last season that it was also clear he should win. That's not the case this year. Yes Felix Hernandez put up crazy numbers, but he pitched for the worst team in the American League. The other two guys in the discussion both pitched for playoff teams in arguably the best division in baseball. It's not their fault that Seattle sucks, and it shouldn't be held against them.
Now, as a Yankees fan, you probably all expect me to say that I think CC Sabathia should win. CC was the only 20-game winner in the American League, going 21-7. And every time the Yankees needed a victory, he pitched like the ace he is. The only reliable pitcher on the staff in the second half, CC almost single-handedly helped the Yankees make the playoffs. I know he plays for the Yankees and got crazy run support, but his ERA in his 21 wins was 1.77. He only gave up more than three runs in a win once, compared to 11 wins where he allowed one run or fewer. Yes he had 21 wins pitching for the New York Yankees, but the New York Yankees play 18 games a year against Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto. Seattle plays 18 games a year against Oakland, Texas and the Angels. The AL East is a better division than the AL West, and CC was pitching pressure-packed games in a pennant race that wasn't decided until the final day of the season. Advantage, Sabathia.
But my vote actually wouldn't go to CC. It would go to David Price. Price started the All-Star Game, which is basically the unofficial half-year Cy Young. In just his second full Major League season, this guy showed why he was the No. 1 pick in the 2008 Draft. Price set a Rays record with 19 wins and had the best winning percentage in the AL (.760). All that's nice, but here's why he should win: Price went 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in September, as the Rays held off the Yankees for both the AL East and the best record in the American League. He also went 12-5 against teams that finished above .500. Price was the best pitcher on the best team, playing in the best division.
Again, Felix Hernandez couldn't do anything about his run support, just like CC Sabathia couldn't do anything about his, but the quality (not quantity) of the wins for the AL East guys can't be overlooked. I think that's the big thing in the whole debate. Yes Sabathia and Price had more wins, but they pitched in big games all season. Did Hernandez pitch in any big games at all? Sabathia and Price were the aces of teams that made the playoffs and pitched like it. Both were at their best against the best teams, and the other top pitchers (remember that 1-0 game they pitched against each other at the Trop in September?). Would either the Yankees or Rays have made the playoffs without them? No. Where would Seattle have been without Felix Hernandez? Last place. Where were they with him? Oh yeah, last place.
Two pitchers in a pennant race in the best division in baseball trump a really good pitcher on a really crappy team. My vote would be 1. Price, 2. Sabathia, 3. Hernandez, 4. Jon Lester, 5. Clay Buchholz. I really hope I'm right.
Hows it going Joe, I've been eagerly awaiting this post so now I can finally respond.
ReplyDeleteI'm glad that we both agree that Felix Hernandez was the best pitcher in baseball this season, because it's fairly indisputable. He led the AL with a 2.27 ERA, the 2nd-lowest ERA by an AL pitcher not named Pedro since 1997, in a staggering 249 innings. His ERA+ (the difference between his ERA and the league average) was 174, 2nd only to Bucholtz, he allowed the least H/9 IP, and walked just 70 (less than the other four contenders).
And no, I'm not even going to throw VORP and WARP numbers at you -- you don't need fancy saber-metric stats to prove Felix was the king this year; just basic statistics that have been around as long as baseball has existed.
The key category Hernandez did not even come to close to winning was, as you pointed out, wins and winning percentage. The notion that the importance of a pitcher's won-loss record is "overrated," or that it is not indicative of one's value to his team, is of course ludicrous. C.C. Sabathia won 21 of the Yankees 95 wins, and we would not have made the playoffs without him. The same can be said of David Price.
The key question to ask, however, is: if Felix Hernandez had the luxury of playing for the Yankees or Rays, would his record be as good or better than Price or Sabathia's?
The answer is yes, but barely. If you add the average run support that the Yankee lineup gave its pitchers in 2010, Felix's pitching statistics this season would translate to well over 20 wins.
But this is of course based off the assumption that Felix would pitch just as well for the Yankees against AL East opponents. Granted, C.C. and Price faced the cream of the crop on a regular basis, while Felix got to feast on the Oakland A's 18 times a year. The Mariners however, played AL East teams half as much as the Yankees did, and when Felix briefly appeared on the big stage, he was at his best. His shutouts at Yankee Stadium this year speak for themselves.
Do I think Yankee fans would have been treated to this every fifth day if Hernandez was in pinstripes this year? Not necessarily; he likely would have given up a couple more bombs and pitched a few less innings if he was challenged more. Would C.C. Sabathia have out-pitched him though? Absolutely not.
As I write this paragraph, I am hearing the breaking news that the voter's got it right. I am also listening to John Buccigross rave about how far advanced statistics have come in swaying voters' decisions. I simply refuse to believe this is the case. This decision is historic not because the voters made their decision based on SN/WX or WARP, but because, for probably the first time ever, the best pitcher in the American League by far only had 13 wins. Felix Hernandez played for a historically bad Seattle Mariners team that would routinely leave him with a loss after pitching 8 innings and giving up 2 runs.
The voter's didn't concoct some advanced formula that spat out Felix Hernandez as the winner; we've witnessed for the first time the most dominant pitcher in baseball somehow wind up with 13 wins because his run support was that bad.
We will always agree to disagree about the writers' final decision today, but I do agree with the rest of your order: Price ahead of C.C., with Lester and Bucholtz trailing behind. Until the AL MVP Debate!
Keelan